Well, silver is the most manipulated of the markets. It is not going to break from just a few billion in capital inflows and physical demand. The pressure will have to be kept up for months. The short positions on silver extend out 180 days in terms of total production. Six months.
I think we will need at least three months of there being almost no silver available before we start seeing the market break - but that is just my feelz. It could be shorter or longer.
Usually, bullion interest doesn't persist long enough to break the price - it would need to eat over six billion in capital inflows each year to average $30 an ounce, and people just haven't been that interested in silver to maintain that.
However, with people looking for safe havens and realizing it may be time to short the dollar - the market interest may be fundamentally different. Rather than people looking to get the most silver for their buck and waiting for the manipulation to dip low - there may be far more interest in not holding the dollar and silver being a far more accessible/practial means than most other asset classes. If that is the case, it is really only a matter of time before we see silver start to break above $40 and trend toward $200. Silver is produced at around an 8:1 ratio with gold at the moment, so with gold at around 2k per ounce, silver at around $200 per ounce is very easy to see once it breaks out. However…..
Once silver hits about $100 per ounce it is going to meet some resistance as people trade silver for gold. At a ratio of around 20:1 to gold. Some might wait for around 15:1.
The dollar estimates assume an average of around $2k per ounce gold. However, the bigger fish will probably be putting some stress on the gold market, so it may be trading significantly higher once it becomes clear that people are dumping the dollar for silver.