>>1296547
>Subject: Re: OH
Cc: Evergreen<HDR22@clintonemail.com >
Subject: Re: OH
The Obama folks have multiple paths either with or without Ohio. Romney can't win without Ohio. A very interesting statistic, if Kerry had performed as well in 2004 as Obama did in 2008 among the African American vote, he would have won Ohio. • And the Obama team is maximizing that vote. There has been a lot of writing about the race divide in the polls but that is mostly because of the lopsided margins in the South - the racial disparities are not as stark in the Midwest. * If Obama wins Ohio, all he needs is to win Nevada or Iowa and he has over 270 electoral votes. Jon Ralston has been analyzing the early vote totals in Nevada and the Clark County margins - if they continue on track, the early vote will provide a firewall for Obama in Nevada. The Democratic registration drive that recently ended in Nevada led to a 90000 voter edge for Dems. *While Republican participation rates are higher, more Dem registered voters means they don't need as high a participation rate as Republicans. Even if Obama loses Ohio and Florida, he can still get to 275 if he wins Colorado and Virginia where recent polling has the President leading. And even if the President loses Colorado as well, he can get to 270 with VA, Iowa and NH. • For Me, I'll be watching Ohio and Virginia, especially Ohio. - if either goes the President's way, hard to see him losing.