I have heard people and local media comment that Covid 19 cases are dropping almost like someone flipped a switch. Wouldn't it be interesting if you could increase or decrease positivity rates at will? Particularly if you linked your lockdown and recovery plans to case positivity as many officials around the world have? I found the switch.
Below is a link to what I believe is the only peer review of
“Detection of 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) by real-time RT-PCR” also known as the Corman-Drosten paper which established PCR testing as the accepted method to detect Covid 19 infection.
https://cormandrostenreview.com/report/
There are a number of flaws identified in this review but I would like to focus on item number three which I have grabbed from the linked paper in different locations. The take away is that the number of PCR cycles is important and over a certain threshold is meaningless. Note that if you increase the cycle count high enough you will likely get a positive result, this is not indicated in the below directly.
"3. The number of amplification cycles (less than 35; preferably 25-30 cycles);
In case of virus detection, >35 cycles only detects signals which do not correlate with infectious virus as determined by isolation in cell culture [reviewed in 2]; if someone is tested by PCR as positive when a threshold of 35 cycles or higher is used (as is the case in most laboratories in Europe & the US), the probability that said person is actually infected is less than 3%, the probability that said result is a false positive is 97%"
"Between 30 and 35 there is a grey area, where a positive test cannot be established with certainty. This area should be excluded. Of course, one could perform 45 PCR cycles, as recommended in the Corman-Drosten WHO-protocol (Figure 4), but then you also have to define a reasonable Ct-value (which should not exceed 30). But an analytical result with a Ct value of 45 is scientifically and diagnostically absolutely meaningless (a reasonable Ct-value should not exceed 30). All this should be communicated very clearly. It is a significant mistake that the Corman-Drosten paper does not mention the maximum Ct value at which a sample can be unambiguously considered as a positive or a negative test-result. This important cycle threshold limit is also not specified in any follow-up submissions to date."
There has recently been "debunked" revised guidance from the WHO about PCR test cycles. Below is a poorly written reuters article "debunking" the new guidance. One quote from the article below that mentions PCR cycles.
"PCR stands for Polymerase Chain Reaction, a process used to amplify DNA, and it is run a certain number of times to detect a virus. Mackay discusses the process in detail here, explaining that to detect an otherwise small amount of viral DNA, laboratory professionals run 40 to 50 cycles of PCR, which can vary by laboratory and testing kit."
Remember, >35 cycles is generally meaningless.
https://www.reuters.com/article/uk-factcheck-who-instructions-pcr-guidan-idUSKBN2A429W
End part 1 of 3