We simply don't have enough information to make that determination firmly, at this point. Both hypotheses are still on the table, each with a small pile of evidence supporting it, and we must (1) acquire more evidence, (2) judge the quality of the evidence, including motive - means - and opportunity. Anons have not yet agreed that Strzok is a real person or a fictitious persona. We probably won't know until the court/MILtrib proceedings take place, and maybe not even then.
Your post rushes to judgment without considering the evidence or sufficiency/lack thereof.