>Iran is already starting to look to EU/Russia for a new deal
Iran and Russia are competitors for EU energy. Tech also, perhaps. Uranium enrichment to Iran provided by France/Germany, I would guess.
So, if US uses the NATO club to strong arm EU compliance with sanctions and EU decides they want their own army instead of NATO, they will be defying Russian energy interests. They'll be looking down the bore of the Russian military from the get-go.
EU is in a box. They almost have to play ball with Trump and his financial boys. To do that they are going to have to stop the 100% Trump bashing (it's fucking brutal) from their government directed media reports or the EU financial interests are going into negotiations with little leverage. No match for Trump's boys.
EU pols playing the anti-Trump card to stroke the arrogance and Self-righteousness of their constituents to stay in power are going to act in cross purposes to their industrial giants.
Won't be pretty.
That's just how I see it.