I think they were patsies, so the first option you listed.
Might be same outfit that uses MS13, like the Seth Rich hit, but needed patsies with more military training, and no understanding of English, for this op.
So, Colombians were just used to get an otherwise conspicuous core of assets past palace security and the assets did the shooting. Assets disappear and Colombians take the rap.
Bottom line, then is something is being hidden in Haiti that Moise was going to expose. Might be why Cuba is going pear-shaped, too, but I think good guys are the rabble rousers in Cuba, because regime in Cuba is on the same side as whomever was hiding something in Haiti and they need to be removed to expose that.
Possibly Venezuela related, I think. A string of ports in the Caribbean warehousing weapons of mass destruction, perhaps. Going by Iran shipping activity to VZ on this I think it's the threat That the group pulling Bidan's strings is using to leverage their takeover, keeping the US military from engaging.