Six Scenarios for Military Intervention After January 20
(Written Aug 2020)
Six Scenarios
Six scenarios come to my mind in which the military may, nevertheless, reasonably be forced to act in contravention of all law and good order in order to ensure that law and good order are restored.
Scenario 1: If Biden is perceived as having won and is sworn in by legitimate authorities, but the passage of executive authority (and the nuclear football) is not acknowledged by the federal agencies or some faction therein´..
Scenario 2: If Biden is incapacitated and someone else is sworn in over the objections of Trump and his allies, questioning the passage of executive authority.
Most likely and troubling would be if the general public and key legitimating institutions are incapable of coming to an agreement on who wins the election by January 20. If so, then two other risky scenarios arise.
These next scenarios may seem unlikely, since the Presidential Succession Act would be triggered, which notably would make House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., the commander in chief. However, as we have seen recently during Trump’s impeachment crisis, a series of legal arguments have already been voiced in the public sphere regarding the legal authority of the act. However spurious these may seem, the fact is that Trump already has a legal justification for a refusal to hand over power to Pelosi, and might reasonably use Pelosi’s negative perception among his base as a wedge to force a constitutional crisis.
Scenario 3: Trump may be sworn-in as a stop-gap measure. Here, the integrity of the democratic process will be sacrificed in order to mitigate damage to the Constitution, but the red line will be pushed back.
Scenario 4: Trump may maintain de facto power and dispense with the symbolic act of being reinstated, in effect denying that a breach of the 20th Amendment took place.
In scenarios 3 and 4, the particular danger is that Trump will be emboldened by this de facto coup and will follow his usual method of slowly degrading institutions. He will replace democratic loyalists with his own allies, gradually gaining control of the federal agencies through appointments, forced retirements, and firings.
Finally, there are two additional scenarios that may overlap with any of the four above, although these appear less likely and would be easier to recognize and counter.
Scenario 5: Trump takes active steps to suspend the normal functions of government through manipulation of the War Powers Act, Insurrection Act, or some other seemingly lawful cover.
Scenario 6: Trump uses loyal security agencies to commit acts of violence and intimidation in a traditional, bloody coup. This is the worst of all outcomes but seems least likely of all, and here military intervention would in all likelihood be authorized by Congress.
In all six scenarios, the military has a role it can choose to play or not to play. Choosing inaction will not be any more legally or morally justifiable than choosing to act, since the premise of all six scenarios is that the American experiment in democracy is suspended.
https://www.defenseone.com/ideas/2020/08/six-scenarios-military-intervention-after-january-20/167777/