I am predicting a post covid recession and let me explain why.

I was lucky to have worked all through the pandemic while also having nothing to spend money on. I saved quite a lot of money over the last two years. I have absolutely no intention of spending this money on luxury items, domestic holidays, cloths and food and drink in restaurants coming out of covid. Im going to put all of this money into my mortgage to improve my financial situation.

People who dont yet have a mortgage that are saving money are saving towards a mortgage.

While this is going on there has been massive house price inflation more or less everywhere in the West. All the money saved during the pandemic has been absorbed by house price inflation. So there is no rebound money.

Huge amounts of people were laid off during the pandemic and there seems to be low demand for their labor in services. People are not rushing back to restaurants and bars.

That means medium to long term unemployment.

Restaurants and bars are shutting down. They have been closed for too long and people do not seem to be rushing back. So are many retail businesses on high streets. That is more damage to the economy and more unemployment.

Businesses defaulting on their leases means pressure on the banks.

Banks that are going to be encouraged to lend by governments at low rates and lots of money printing going on. All the printed money rushes to assets to protect against inflation and devaluing currency.

Governments have borrowed enormous amounts of money to pay for everything through covid. This money will need to be paid back somehow. That means higher taxes.

1) Cost of living is going up rapidly.

2) Taxes will need to be raised

3) Job uncertainty/Large scale unemployment

4) Asset price inflation.

5) People saving rather than spending to protect themselves against an uncertain future.

6) Temporary high prices for certain consumables.

Everything spells deep recession.