Let me lay something on you frens.
What if Afghanistan is going precisely as planned.
here was never any world in which the Taliban were not going to retake the whole country once we pulled out.
They're the natural leadership of the country and enjoy broad, if not universal, popular support.
They also have the useful habit of eradicating poppy production pretty decisively.
That's probably the real reason we went there in the first place. They had shut down poppy production and were crippling the industry but i digress.
But here's the rub. This is not the same Taliban that was blowing up statues and doing mass executions. Most of those leaders were killed by precision strikes 3 years ago.
https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/library/news/2017/12/mil-171205-voa01.htm?fbclid=IwAR1ppU5XT1k8PzNp39v01SFHoZYsWTBndmbXJArZ-OkGj6wvfof0oxxzMjk
Previous versions of the Taliban were largely controlled by outside powers like Pakistani Intel, the CIA and Saudi intelligence.
Pakistani intel seems to be neutered in the region.
The CIA is defanged if not dead in the region.
The Saudis have reformed and declared that the word of Alllah has been delivered and Jihad is not longer acceptable.
This is a very different group of people than what we saw in the past..
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/taliban-on-trump-we-hope-he-will-win-the-election-withdraw-us-troops/?fbclid=IwAR0FVGu6p6KOsdhREuzEuETb1UpNmXWKYgrEipCZ4f9fyiuyeC_vALYczH0
So what about all of the weapons and equipment that they're supposedly recovering?
What did they get?
Trucks ad humvees- So what?
Small arms ammunition- So what?
A helicopter or two- How long will those be flying? A month?
An old M60 tank- BFD got any spare parts or cannon rounds for it?
Some small surveillance drones- Can they operate them?
Probably not.
Will they sell them to China via Iran?
Of course. Why do you think they were left behind intact?
Trojan horses for the enemy.
*46 Supposedly sent heavy bombers and AC130s .
Did anyone hear about them hitting any targets?
I didn't.
What if they just flew around, found no targets, called no joy and went back to base?
I believe that the continuity of government plan is in place so *46 has no meaningful control of the military.
Even if that's not true, I see a high likelihood that the President moved these pieces into place ahead of time and issued orders that are being carried out by compartmentalized units that have no obligation to report their activity to the current chain of command.
Sealed orders and strict radio silence is what operators do well.
Just like we saw in Sudan, the people get to own their revolution. When they own it, they'll protect it more carefully.
Plus, as an added bonus, he hung the perceived failure of the Afghan withdrawal around the neck of *46.
When he does a Saigon style evacuation of the embassy, it will be one for the memory books.
People don't forget stuff like that and red pills will be delivered.