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The Sept. 14 recall to decide the fate of California Gov. Gavin Newsom is beginning to look like it could get ugly for Democrats. Recent polling has shown that the state—a bastion of blue—is basically split in half on the question of whether to recall the governor. Structural quirks in the recall system paired with the Democratic Party’s approach to the challenge could make it hard for Democrats to retain power if the recall succeeds, despite a sizable statewide advantage. But the worst possible outcome of the recall challenge goes far beyond Newsom. The true nightmare scenario for Democrats would be this: What if Newsom loses, a Republican replaces him, and then 88-year-old Sen. Dianne Feinstein becomes unable to finish her term?
This is not some kind of paranoid thought experiment. Not only is the senator nearly 90 years old with COVID bouncing around the chambers, recent reporting has highlighted the “rumors of her cognitive decline,” as the New Yorker’s Jane Mayer put it at the end of last year. As Mayer wrote at the time:
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[M]any others familiar with Feinstein’s situation describe her as seriously struggling, and say it has been evident for several years. Speaking on background, and with respect for her accomplished career, they say her short-term memory has grown so poor that she often forgets she has been briefed on a topic, accusing her staff of failing to do so just after they have.
If Newsom is replaced by a Republican and Feinstein is not able to serve until a new governor enters office in January 2023, a GOP governor would be the one to appoint someone to fill her seat, potentially tipping the balance of power in the U.S. Senate to Mitch McConnell and the Republicans. It’s not a small thing.
A senator with declining mental faculties has not been a historical anomaly in an elective body that has skewed significantly older than the American population. It is even less surprising in the current Senate—the oldest in U.S. history. But evidence of Feinstein’s apparent decline has at times spilled into her public role: The former ranking member of the Senate Judiciary Committee asked Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey the exact same question, verbatim, two times in a row during a hearing last year and, as the New York Times reported, she has sometimes responded with “outright confusion” at reporters’ questions.
All of which is to say: The Feinstein problem has been a subtext of the recall fight for months, but the questions around her ability to serve have rarely been openly discussed, and the argument that she should step down over her age before the recall vote has been largely contained to private grousing and public innuendo. In my conversations with progressive activists for this piece, several expressed a fear that it would be bad optics to try to push out an iconic female leader—one who comfortably won her last election just three years ago—on the basis of sensitive questions about her age and mental ability. As one told me, there is concern that discussing Feinstein’s particular issues without treating all other older Democrats the same way would cause problems while serving no greater purpose. “When people do this questioning of Dianne Feinstein and her faculties, I see where they’re trying to go with it, but I think in this day and age when disinformation is rampant, there’s a lot of partisan spin on things, and I really question what it means to have these sorts of conversations in this kind of environment,” Courage California executive director Irene Kao told me. “I just ultimately don’t think it’s helpful.”
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It’s certainly true that older male senators in serious and well-known cognitive decline have served without nearly the same scrutiny that Feinstein has faced. South Carolina Republican Strom Thurmond was in office until he was 100 years old and he “didn’t know if he was on foot or on horseback” for his last 10 years, as one of Mayer’s sources put it. West Virginia Democrat Robert Byrd was in the Senate until he was 92 and was famously “in decline” as press accounts put it by that point. More recently, Mississippi Republican Thad Cochran was described in public reporting as “feeble” and in “physical and mental decline” when he finally stepped down at 80 in 2018. And Joe Biden is the oldest first-term president in history at 78 (though he has faced plenty of questions about his faculties.) But overall, both political parties have historically not known how to deal with rapidly aging politicians who refuse to step aside, even when it could be to the very real detriment of the party, or the country. In private conversations, California activists compare the Feinstein/recall situation to the loss of Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s Supreme Court seat after she chose to stay on past Barack Obama’s tenure, or to Stephen Breyer’s continued decision to stay on the court at 83.