(3)
Churchill saw diplomatic reports and the "scandal" (fake news manipulation) surrounding the Lusanne Reparation talks in 1932. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lausanne_Conference_of_1932
The centrist German Prime Minister faced economic pressure (peep starving etc) and faced a looming election that extremist from left and right wanted to win. The german domestic and french domestic media was owned and directed by rich elite industrialists (who wanted HH into power - oligarchy)(shades of current power plays in the 2020 election)
So the centrist see that if he goes to the Americans, English/French League sponsored Reparations Conference he could come back to Berlin having unloaded a heap of debt imposed by France in particular. The Americans wanted that too. But the elite want the centrist to lose so they ran a play on the diplomats (a love letter to embarrass and ridicule - a scandal at the Ballroom) that gave the French all the cover or bad blood required to dodge the decision and kick the can down the road. Therefore the plane arrives back to berlin after months of build up and general expectations to the public… and the centrist emerges to all the cameras but his briefcase is empty - no agreement. he was toast. The papers all ran front page hits stories about national humiliation and that the other nations gave him no credibility as the leader and that Germany need a real respected leader etc etc etc, so HH got elected (legit) a few weeks later.. the elite "manufactured consent" as we call it.
This was seent by Churchill in real time as I said, and he was a member of one the elite families himself. But he despised the plans of the hun… (Boer War and WW1 experiences added) and hence Patriotism was his purpose behind his continual push to re-arm england thru the '30s.