https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/john-yarmuth-retirement-could-be-a-canary-in-the-coal-mine-for-democrats/ar-AAPtifu?ocid=msedgntp
John Yarmuth retirement could be a canary in the coal mine for Democrats
Analysis by Chris Cillizza, CNN Editor-at-large 10 hrs ago
Which brings me to the retirement announcement this week of Kentucky Rep. John Yarmuth, the sitting chairman of the House Budget Committee.
"Truth be told, I never expected to be in Congress this long. I always said I couldn't imagine being here longer than 10 years," Yarmuth said in a video posted on Twitter. "After every election, I was asked how long I intended to serve, and I never had an answer. Today, I do. This term will be my last."
Yarmuth cited his age he would be 75 at the end of this term - and a desire to spend more time with his grandson as reasons for his decision to walk away from Congress after eight terms. And, of course, those reasons are credible and we should believe Yarmuth when he cites them as at least some of why he is retiring
At the the same time, however, there is another message being sent in the Yarmuth retirement too: He doesn't seem to think Democrats are likely to hold onto their House majority come 2023.
Why? Because Yarmuth could serve as Budget chairman for as long as he likes – or at least as long as Speaker Nancy Pelosi (California) allows him to stay in the job. (Democrats, unlike Republicans, do not have term limits on their chairmanships.)
If Yarmuth felt good about Democrats' chances of holding onto their majority in 13 months, it's hard to imagine he would walk away from such a plum position – one that he spent nearly two decades in Congress working toward.
That he is walking away suggests that he sees the writing on the political wall: Democrats, currently clinging to a three-seat majority, are underdogs to keep their House majority in the 2022 midterms.
Both the past and present back up Yarmuth's possible doubts about Democratic chances.
Historically, the first midterm election of a president's term is hugely destructive for his side in the House. In 2018, Republicans lost 40 seats in Donald Trump's first midterm. In 2010, Democrats lost 63 House seats in Barack Obama's first midterm. In both instances, the president's party lost the majority in the House.