Florida's University Omicron Variant Mortality Model is Overpredicting actual Omicron associated Deaths by a Factor of 10.
In UF's EPI's new revised model released on January 4th, the 7-day average was just 22 deaths, but UFEPI's model predicted ~200 deaths and then yesterday, January 7th, the 7-day average was just 26 deaths, but UFEPI's model predicted ~275 deaths! Its not clear why their model is over predicting death by Omicron, but in their revised paper they write "We estimate that omicron will cause 1/3 as many deaths as were caused by delta." I could not find a biological or scientific basis for this statement in their report. Moreover, in the graph provided, as of yesterday, their model is predicting10 times the actual numbers being reported online by the NY Times.
https://epi.ufl.edu/media/epiufledu/covid19-models/Omicron-Report-2022-jan-04-v2.pdf
Florida's omicron wave likely will peak in mid-January at 90,000 daily cases, UF model says
https://www.arcamax.com/currentnews/newsheadlines/s-2617194?fs