Geomagnetic Storm Conditions Likely 2 - 3 February, 2022
published: Monday, January 31, 2022 23:50 UTC
A G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm watch is in effect for the 2 February, 2022, UTC-day due to anticipated CME arrival. NOAA/SWPC Region 2936 produced an M1 flare (R1-Minor Radio Blackout) on 29 January at 6:32 pm ET (29/2332 UTC). This flare was associated with an asymmetric, full halo coronal mass ejection (CME) as observed in NASA/SOHO LASCO coronagraph imagery.
Multiple analyses by SWPC forecasters indicated an approximate CME speed of 662 km/s and an at Earth arrival window as early as late 1 Feb to early 2 Feb ET.
Forecast confidence in an Earth component to this CME is fair, while lower levels of confidence exist for intensity and arrival timing. Typically, CME arrival is first detected at the NOAA DSCOVR spacecraft (about 1 million miles away) before Earth arrival. Any geomagnetic storm conditions are likely to persist into 3 Feb at weakening levels, therefore, a G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm watch is in effect for 03 February. Please continue to monitor our SWPC webpage for the latest information, forecasts, and updates regarding this activity.
Power systems: High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms, long-duration storms may cause transformer damage.
Spacecraft operations: Corrective actions to orientation may be required by ground control; possible changes in drag affect orbit predictions.
Other systems: HF radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes, and aurora has been seen as low as New York and Idaho (typically 55° geomagnetic lat.).
https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/news/geomagnetic-storm-conditions-likely-2-3-february-2022