Something has been puzzling me about the recent "Putin will invade on Wednesday" nonsense. It is such an unbelievably stupid and bizzare declaration to make, even if they do have that intelligence, that I have to stop and ask myself why and/or how it might be an intelligent move. I know these people are stupid, but rather than think outside the box, ask whether or not we are thinking inside the proper box.

China needs resources. Desperately so. They import most of their iron and coal for making steel. Their rare earth monopoly was mostly through licensing of foreign mines. They have a growing middle-ish class that is difficult for The Party to keep in line and they can't feed the demands and growth that has become standard, even if U.S. consumerism was to continue without a hitch. We all know that show is coming to a close with hyper-inflation to kick in within weeks of the fed's impending rate hike. (Crack-up boom).

China can't field a navy to secure trade routes or project power to subjugate Taiwan, let alone Australia (where it would almost certainly get most of its ore). This leaves another alternative.

Siberia.

Siberia is oil rich and has better quality coal and mineral deposits than mainland China does. China drew the short end of the stick when it comes to natural resources outside of manpower (as a friend once put it, for some reason, China has always had a fuckton of people). They have a couple things in favor for them, but not the critical ones for making an advanced industrialized nation. They will pretty much always be a labor service unless they can break out and dominate natural resources elsewhere.

Even if China had a navy, attacking any of the other western-aligned powers would be a war they could not hold, and the population of african nations or India would be armed through proxy wars to make their occupation and operations a living hell.

So, China wants unpopulated territory that is accessible without having to cross water.

If you look to the North and East, there is Siberia. Sparsely populated and accessible over land. Perfect. Well, spare for the cold, but it beats tribal warlords turning into mercenaries against you.

Now… If I am Putin and am looking at ways to defend against a Chinese first strike and invasion… Defense in depth is a great overall strategy, but moving them out of range would be ideal. Bonus points if they can be covered under NATO radars and air patrols.

Which begs the question…

Is this 4d chess being played by U.S. intelligence and Russia against China? Thinking about it this way, much more of what is going on appears to make sense. Biden and the democrats may be living in their own little fantast they want to be true, and blabbing it to the world - but everything makes much more sense if everyone is actually anticipating Chinese aggression against Russia - who has been economically and politically isolated from the West by the political establishment (who have been part and parcel with the Chinese).

Look at it this way… Why would China and Russia be aligning with each other against the U.S. when China already has significant influence/infiltration within the U.S.? Who is going to attack China over an invasion of Russian territory?