Russia has already lost the war and here is why…
For Russia, the best possible scenario would have been to capture Zelensky and his deputies in Kyiv during the first 72 hours,
along with takeover of all significant government buildings. The Russians would have forced Zelensky to read a public statement of
surrender, with the hope that would dissolve Ukraine's resistance to a minimal level.
That was the best case scenario Russia could have hoped for theoretically.
And even in that ideal scenario, their conquest plan was still fatally flawed becasue of an unsolvable problem:
Who in Ukraine could be a legitimate counterparty to a negotiated peace that provided a permanent favorable outcome for Russia?
That is a paradox Putin never properly calculated and thought through.
If Zelensky was forced to sign the agreement, and then he is removed from power by the Russians, the peace agreement would become worthless.
If Zelensky were removed from power prior to a negotiated peace, then who would be the leader who signs?
There are no viable political entities. The opposition party in Ukraine that was collaborating with Russia is no longer cooperating or communicating.
Medvechuk has fled. Yanukovich is unavailable. Tsaryova is not viewed as trustworthy by the Russians.
If Russia signs a peace deal with any puppet Ukrainian government, that will have no legitimacy with the people.
The puppet government will be overthrown as soon as the Russian Army leaves, leaving the negotiated peace deal null and void.
The other option to a negotiated peace is occupation and annexation of Ukraine. But that is also a non-viable option.
To occupy a territory and subdue a population as large as Ukraine requires resources Russia does not have.
Even with a minimal level of insurgency and resistance by the Ukrainian population, Russia would need well over
500,000 military administrators, military police, counter-intelligence agents, riot and crowd control security personnel to control the country in the deal scenario.
That 500,000 does not includ the logistical and supply personnel needed to keep the occupation forces functioning.
If there is an insurgency supported by the West, the number of Russian occupation personnel needed becomes 1 or 2 million.
Currently, none of those outcome choices are even available to Russia becasue the war continues and the ideal scenario has been lost forever.
The 72 hour blitzkrieg failed and has now become a war of attrition.
Ukraine is fighting with a level of ferocious resistance that Russia never expected.
And now the Russia Army is bleeding to death and the Russian economy is collapsing.
After more than a week of fighting Russia has lost possibly 11,000 soldiers dead.
No one in the Russian military knows how many are dead.
Information during the first two days was being kept of those captured, injured and killed in action,
but as the war plan unravelled and the numbers of Russian dead became unacceptable, the cover up began.
The Russian General Staff now has lost contact with entire divisions.
No one knows for sure if those divisions will restablish contact or if they are utterly destroyed.
The path to Russia's victory over Ukraine has become impossible.
Russia is running out of cruise missles and laser guide bombs.
It is losing very expensive jets and armored vehicles at an alarming rate.
As a result, Russian military leaders have decided to engage in brutal war crimes against the Ukrainian population as their only path to victory.
The carnage and death from this decision is progressing exponentially and the resistance of the Ukrainian people is growing stronger.
Ukrainian expats and foreign volunteers from all over the world are going to Ukraine to fight against Russia. Soon the Russian Army will be outnumbered
by a highly motivated and morally outraged armed force.
So far Russian land forces have tried to enter major cities and have been repulsed, leaving the cities as fortresses against conquest.
As recent history has shown in Iraq and Serbia, cities can hold out and function for years under military siege.
This will be especially true for Ukraine given the commitment of the West to provide humanitarian and military aid.
The longer the war continues, the better the chances are that Ukraine will survive and win. Russia does not have the luxury of time.
Russia's economy is collapsing at an alarming rate under the ever increasing sanctions from countries and corporations.
Putin has until the summer before total collapse of the economy occurs.
Then the entire country will descend into an Orwellian nightmare of civil and political upheaval.
That is why I think Russia has already lost their unwinnable war.