20 Mar, 2022 17:39
China, India, America and the EU: Who wins from the Ukraine war, and who loses?
they had 8 years to think this out read the whole article anons, its fascinating
The Russian military operation is sending shockwaves across the globe, creating problems and opportunities
Russia’s military operation in Ukraine raises questions about the balance of losses and gains for major stakeholders and global actors. When it comes to Moscow and Kiev, this balance is yet to be determined.
As of now, the hostilities continue and no political settlement has been worked out, so it’s hard to say whether the parties can achieve their political objectives, for which a huge price has already been paid in human lives and economic damage of colossal proportions. The prospects for other global and regional players – the EU, the US, China, Japan and Iran, among others – are much clearer.
The European Union is sustaining damage and losses due to numerous severed trade and economic ties with Russia. The key challenge is to find alternatives to Russian oil, gas, metals, and other commodities on the European market. This will require a great concentration of resources and political will. It will affect the growth of the EU economy and determine how competitive its industry will be in the coming years.
Nevertheless, however painful it may be, Russian raw materials can be replaced. For oil, it won’t take long, while Russian gas is a bit harder to cut. The situation will be different from nation to nation within the bloc, as their levels of dependency on Russian resources vary. Still, a range of Russian goods can likely be replaced within a few years.
Regardless of the developments on the Ukrainian front and Russia’s foreign policy, pushing Moscow out of the common market will be a long-term process.
The EU has to take care of Ukrainian refugees. This is not an easy task.
Most EU countries will vigorously increase defense spending.. On the surface, America’s expenses are not as significant, although banning Russian oil may cause some difficulties domestically, in the form of soaring gas prices, for example. However, Washington’s main problems are found elsewhere. The sharp escalation in the confrontation with Russia is a distraction from the Asia-Pacific region. The US will have to build up its military presence in Europe, which leaves fewer capabilities for containing China.. If taken to the extreme, this could lead to nuclear escalation. Washington will have to contain Moscow but act within certain boundaries in order to avoid escalation here and now. It would appear that the current priority is to manage the intensity of the conflict and make sure it doesn’t boil over.
In other aspects, the US is definitely set to make gains.
The new level of confrontation with Moscow is helping NATO strengthen internal discipline and encourage European members to contribute more to common security.
Donald Trump, Barack Obama, and George W. Bush were not able to achieve this. Now it’s being done with no difficulty at all.
In theory, the United States could also use the need to divert resources to Europe to its advantage. Washington and its allies are now free to arrange an unprecedented hit on Russia’s economic and technological potential. Russia will undoubtedly remain a major military challenge for America and the West. However, they will be able to undermine the economy that this military potential is based on, and then redirect their attention to Asia.
The US energy sector has a lot to gain from the crisis. Before long, it will take over a sizable chunk of the European market. It will also now be easier for the Americans to squeeze Russia out of the world’s arms markets. While China and India will remain major consumers of Russian weaponry, Moscow will find it more difficult to compete in other markets due to strong pressure from the US.
Over the years, the US has accumulated a host of domestic issues. The ‘Russia factor’ could help both Congress and American society to regain a sense of unity and cohesion, however short-lived. That said, the degree to which the ongoing crisis could affect the 2024 presidential election remains unclear.
Meanwhile, China gains a lot of room for action. Unlike the EU and the US, the PRC stands to lose very little due to the current crisis., Russian energy resources will become more accessible to China at lower prices than before. Furthermore, China is set to become Russia’s key financial partner – a partnership that will be skewed heavily in China’s favor..
All in all, the new stage of the Ukrainian crisis will have repercussions on a global scale. For some countries, it will entail losses in the short and medium term – and significant losses at that – but for many others, it will open new opportunities for extending their influence in the long-term.
https://www.rt.com/russia/552333-russia-ukraine-conflict-benefits/