Rabobank: We Are Seeing A Struggle For A New World Order
Freedom isn't free money
As we know, the Ukraine war is taking place on several fronts: and, as we underlined before it started, the Ukraine metacrisis is too.
The Russian Defense Ministry officially released data showing 9,861 Russian troops have been killed, with 16,153 injured. That is getting close to the tally of the entire 11-year Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. That news was then rapidly deleted from their media, like a certain laptop. Aging Russia does not have the young men to waste on this war, and we already had rumors that boys from patriotic youth organisations may be drafted too: the ultra-nationalist babushky most in favor of the war are too old to fight it. As feared, this also ups the ante for Russia to escalate to heavier bombardment of civilian areas. Mariupol refused to surrender yesterday – what happens to it now remains to be seen, but it does not look good for its inhabitants.
Moreover, US President Biden has warned of imminent Russian cyber-attacks, and of the risk of a chemical attack – which Russia has itself warned that Ukraine will soon attempt, which others see as a false flag.
Yesterday was also absent the usual attempts to spin that ‘a peace deal is close’. Indeed, listening to an international relations expert yesterday, I was struck by the flimsiness of his arguments. A deal, he said, would involve Ukraine giving up Crimea and its east; not joining the EU or NATO, and getting security guarantees. Fine: but that overlooks that this sounds a lot like Russia winning; more so if sanctions are then removed; and yet if they aren’t, why should Russia stop, rather than escalating? Moreover, without the EU, who will rebuild Ukraine, and which way can it orientate itself economically? And who will give it security guarantees? Itself? That sounds like Ukraine winning! NATO? That sounds like NATO membership! Russia?! Basically, while everyone wants this to de-escalate, there are lots of geopolitical problems out there with apparently simple solutions to the West that have deep roots planted by the West and no easy solutions. Take the Middle East for example.
And as we shift our gaze from war to metacrisis, consider that with the EU now saying it is considering energy sanctions on Russia too, and a further Russian military escalation is likely to be the trigger, that nearby energy-rich region is going to be even more important going forwards.
Yet there Iran-backed Houthis attacked Saudi oil facilities again, and Riyadh make clear they aren’t responsible for any drop in oil output if this carries on; the US belatedly sent Patriot missiles to Saudi, after having previously removed them. In parallel, there is another stand-off over the Iran nuclear deal, Iran insisting its Revolutionary Guards Council must be taken off US terrorist watchlists. Although the US negotiating team has offered Tehran more than it asked for at all times according to leaks from both sides, and had proffered the IRGC U-turn on the premise Tehran make a promise of good behaviour(!), this may prove a red line for the White House. It would be hard to sell to this Congress, let alone the one that looms in November: and if it happens, then the Houthis will get even more money to fire more missiles at Saudi. Either way, oil supply does not look like it is going to pick up. And, obviously, energy prices hence are: Brent was up 7.1% on the day to $116 again.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/rabobank-we-are-seeing-struggle-new-world-order