Good morning Swordy.
Those Javelins cost about $80k each according to various budget sources. The Army has purchased 32k warheads in FY 2022.
Sauce: https://missilethreat.csis.org/missile/fgm-148-javelin/
>What are the odds?
I'd put it 60/40 based on past habbenings. They key is to always maintain the operational initiative.