Rand Report Prescribed US Provocations Against Russia and Predicted Russia Might Retaliate In Ukraine
According to a 2019 Rand report titled "Overextending and Unbalancing Russia", the US goal is to undermine Russia just as it did the Soviet Union in the cold war. Rather than "trying to stay ahead" or trying to improve the US domestically or in international relations, the emphasis is on efforts and actions to undermine the designated adversary Russia. Rand is a quasi-US governmental think tank that receives three-quarters of its funding from the US military.
https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_briefs/RB10014.html
The report lists anti-Russia measures divided into the following areas: economic, geopolitical, ideological/informational, and military. They are assessed according to the perceived risks, benefits and "likelihood of success".
The report notes that Russia has "deep seated" anxieties about western interference and potential military attack. These anxieties are deemed to be a vulnerability to exploit. There is no mention of the cause of the Russian anxieties: they have have been invaded multiple times and had 27 million deaths in WW2.
Significance of Ukraine
Ukraine is important to Russia. The two countries share much common heritage and a long common border. One of the most important leaders of the Soviet Union, Nikita Khrushchev, was Ukrainian. During WW2, Ukraine was one of Hitler’s invasion routes and there was a small but active number of Ukrainian collaborators with Nazi Germany. The distance from the capital of Ukraine, Kiev, to Moscow is less than 500 miles.
For these same reasons of geography and history, Ukraine is a major component of a US/NATO effort to undermine Russia. Current Under Secretary for Political Affairs, Victoria Nuland, said that over 20 years the US invested $5 billion in the project to turn Ukraine. The culmination was a violent coup in February 2014. Since 2015, the US has been training ultra nationalist and Neo-Nazi militias. This has been documented in articles such as "U.S. House admits Nazi role in Ukraine" (Robert Parry, 2015), "The US is arming and assisting neo-nazis in Ukraine while the House debates prohibition."(Max Blumenthal, 2018), "Neo Nazis and the far right are on the march in Ukraine" (Lev Golinken in 2019) and "The CIA may be breeding Nazi terror in Ukraine" (Branko Marcetic Jan. 2022).
Rand suggested provocations
Prior to 2018, the US only provided "defensive" military weaponry to Ukraine. The Rand report assesses that providing lethal (offensive) military aid to Ukraine will have a high risk but also a high benefit. Accordingly, US lethal weaponry skyrocketed from near zero to $250M in 2019, to $303M in 2020, to $350M in 2021. Total military aid is much higher. A few weeks ago, "The Hill" reported, "The US has contributed more than $1 billion to help Ukraine’s military over the past year".
The Rand report lists many techniques and "measures" to provoke and threaten Russia. Some of the steps include:
Repositioning bombers within easy striking range of key Russian strategic targets
Deploying additional tactical nuclear weapons to locations in Europe and Asia
Increasing US and allied naval force posture and presence in Russia’s operating areas (Black Sea)
Holding NATO war exercises on Russia’s borders
Withdrawing from the Intermediate Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty
These and many other provocations suggested by Rand have, in fact, been implemented. For example, NATO conducted massive war exercises dubbed "Defender 2021" right up Russia’s border. NATO has started "patrolling" the Black Sea and engaging in provocative intrusions into Crimean waters. The US has withdrawn from the INF Treaty.
https://original.antiwar.com/Rick_Sterling/2022/03/27/rand-report-prescribed-us-provocations-against-russia-and-predicted-russia-might-retaliate-in-ukraine/