EVERGREEN IV SCENARIO: DEATH SPIRAL: EYES WIDE SHUT.
EVERGREEN IV SCENARIO: DEATH SPIRAL: EYES WIDE SHUT
This is a plausible future scenario, part of a composite set designed to form planning space for foresight efforts. It is not intended to be predictive, nor does it represent the U.S. Coast Guard's assessment of the future.
…The federal government is in a perpetual state of partisan deadlock, fueled by deeply divided views on entitlements, education, infrastructure, and the economy. Grassroots efforts to improve programs and policy are for naught, and citizens don’t trust their representatives. Participation in the national political process is at an all-time low. Remaining functional governance is found at the state and local levels. The government maintains a semblance of checks and balances and manages some regulatory authority and enforcement. However, the Old Boys’ Club of lobbyists and the wealthy influences legislation to the benefit of a handful of corporations and interests. The gap between the wealthy and the poor is broad and growing wider, and the middle class is shrinking. Concurrent with drastic reductions in entitlements, citizens no longer depend on or expect government to provide solutions or equitable treatment. Family and community compose the new safety net.
The American economy has also suffered from political gridlock. The U.S. is no longer the world’s preeminent market. The nation’s international power and influence have also diminished. Remaining international relationships are trade-based and confined to the Western
Hemisphere. Violence and crime have increased with growing desperation. Law enforcement officers work hard to maintain their legitimacy prevent complete chaos. Government enforcement efforts are sporadic and random, characterized by short-duration crackdowns interspersed with long periods of apathy. Transnational criminal organizations (TCOs) and terrorist groups increasingly
focus on cyber crime. Much of this activity is intellectual property theft.
Loss of arable land has made the world more dependent on the oceans and waterways for food, water, and commerce. The maritime environment is increasingly stressed by increasing sea levels, temperatures, and pollution. Piracy has increased and targets scarce living and mineral resources.
Vignette
No Port in a Storm
…