Mkt Fag: DOW lather, rinse,repeat with shorts NAS exits continue and Muh Netflix "surprise" edition
See below for some color on the NFLX turd and how it got there-you all have seen the headlines so no time spent on that but adding some things not covered by the Fin. MSM.
NAS opened up slightly up but then straight down and then turned on a dime @ 10:06am and walked it's way back up to almost green-tech stocks got whacked cause Netflix laid it's turd last night*(see below for moar on NFLX) and ALL equities tied to streaming services had pee-pee's whacked. The NAS then decided to start laying those big block trades starting at 11:16am EST of 1.53B-just before the close of European markets-it haz to stand on it's own after 11:30am EST so this picked up again-later, rinse, repeat-black dots on cap#2-not gonna list them but you can still see someMAJORliquidations going on there and mostly the FANGS. They are starting to hide these on the mtn top chart and they disappear and then reappear-the one at 11:16am dropped it back to the LOD at the time and then at 11:26am-there were several moar around 2pm EST. It started back upwards again after that big chunk "cleared" itself. DOW played it's usual lure in the shorts on the open but not as bad cause it did not drop to the neckline (yesterdays close) and then it gets reversed courtesy of the NYFED 'Chicago' office and it's having a hard time making any progress last the initial HOD at 10:54am EST. SP500 has now given back all it's YTD gains as of the close
Muh ¥ has cooled off it's relentless rise to ¥130 and speaking of currency swaps the NYFRB did one on 0413 with the European Central Bank that matures tomorrow 0421- for $236m
see here : https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/desk-operations/central-bank-liquidity-swap-operations
The US dollar index had it's appropriate response to drop on the ¥ strength proving that it is THAT that is keeping the dollar propped-Mkt Fag has always said that when this entire thing 'ends' financially it will be when the B.O.J. is finally taken out and control structure removed from it. Until then it drives what happens and did that very same thing after the 2008 mkt event-see Yen carry trade. B.O.J. "stepped" into the bond market again because they habs a real problem with low interest rates and CANNOT raise them or the whole 'tonkatsu' goes BOOM-It has declined for 13 consecutive sessions before Wednesday's bounce and has not been at the 130 level since the early 90's iirc.-see cap#3
In moar FOREX news the Rouble has now given us a "cup and handle" formation-cup not so much but that handle is there so look for it to continue to strengthen-technically speaking and back to the pre-sanctions level.
Japanese yen at 20-year lows as policy divergence trades bloom
Current trade is ¥ 127.82 -1.08 -0.83% as of this post and it's five day rise is 1.72% and 1 month is at 5.50% so this is not over and just temporary
https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/forex-japanese-yen-at-20-year-lows-as-policy-divergence-trades-bloom
Bond Yields dropped today because muh DOW is being bought so those typically drop when the markets rise-increase in value but drop in Yield-it doesn't always work that way though. TIPS (Treasury inflation-protected securities) bonds actually went above 0% for the first time since January2020 (if you don't count the huge spike it had and then back down below 0% in late Feb. 2020. But it did not last long and it's now back around -.032% and wandering around that. And all this is because the St. Louis Fed head said "he wouldn’t rule out the prospects of a jumbo-sized 75 basis point rate increase, though a hike bigger than 50 basis points wasn’t his “base case.” The CME FedWatch currently haz it at a 95.3% probability of it being raised .25-.50bp to have prime between .75% and 1% Cap #4 courtesy of zh for the bond complex action today.-Treasuries were bid across the curve with the long-end dramatically outperforming (30Y -11bps, 2Y -1bps) helped lower in yield after a very strong 20Y auction. This pushed 30Y (and 10Y) lower in yield on the week, while the short-end remains notably higher on the week(2Y +13bps)…
see here: https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html
Oil…had a huge build last week and it din't drop but now it's had a big draw and it basically just bounced off of $100 ($100.21) then up it went-but not by much-hurry up Mr Abdullaziz (Aramco CEO). The big draw down is because the opne of the SPR releases is getting shipped out to Europe and overall crude exports are now producing this result-shipments climbed to 4.2 million barrels per day (bpd) - ticking above the key 4 million bpd level for the first time since July 2021. Gas prices still not really dropping much (at least in CA-if shop around you are not paying those prices that are plastered all over the media). See cap #5 for Retail/Wholesale Gas and WTI crude long term chart
>>>/qrb/133601 pb Oil From Biden's Emergency SPR Release Is Heading For Europe
*on Netflix: they have as ass-ton of off-the-book debt and they only report $14.69B here : https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/NFLX/netflix/long-term-debt
This thing had/has no bidness being over $50 way back in 2013 and wut a coincidence that it basically went parabolic as the $27T in real bailout money started being applied to everything.
"Nanooked" (baby seal'd) all day and it's daily avg volume is 8,435,668 it closed with 132,405,730 so just under 16x it's normal amount-over $56 billion in market cap being going Poof!…this has MUCH further to go down. Biggest volume since Oct 2013, 2nd worst daily loss since IPO-mkt fag traded this a lot when it''s daily average volume was under 100k so NOT easy to do because anything in size that amount of volume would not allow for a quick exit so you had to plan what you did with it if you had a lot. Am no longer active in mkts-why I am unbiased and can tell it like it is-have no book to "talk".
It's long term debt has been up and over $30B at it's peak because they have had constant secondary equity offerings (shelf registrations) plus they had a split in Feb 2004 and then in July 2015 that eviscerated the shorts to finance content acquisition over the years and some of that debt is/was just shoved off to the side and off-the-books. Key point-they stopped reporting Subscriber Acquisition Costs (SAC) sometime in 2016 or 2017-can't find the info about exact time but that is the cost the NFLX pays to acquire a subscriber (it is the "cost" of the free trial and marketing expenses) and when that number went north of about $35 per subscriber they simply stopped reporting it. THAT was a key metric that could have forecast this latest turd because when those costs rise that means they are 1. losing subscribers and 2. paying moar to acquire and keep them-so like the Federal Reserve when the data reported is not in your favor it just simply goes unreported. IT was also attacked by the naked shorting crowd early on as it IPO'd around $17 per/sh and then got beaten down to about $6 or so. This was when Blockbuster was still "in the game" and streaming movies were just a wet-fart dream at that point. NFLX even offered to sell itself to Blockbuster for $50m in 2000 and they turned it down-one of the fuggen DUMBEST' decisions ever-how did that werk out for you?-gone a few years later. John Antioco (BBI CEO) will go down as the DUMBEST SOB in business EVER
Netflix Once Tried to Sell to Blockbuster for $50 Million
https://www.insidehook.com/daily_brief/personal-tech/netflix-once-tried-to-buy-blockbuster-for-50-million
"Reed" is also a swamp product: see here >>16109329 pb maternal great grandfather was Alfred Loomis/Netflix
and his share sales since 2003 that total $1.88B >>16109398 pb
Some Headlines
serial cheerleaders and "always a good time to buy" hopium addicts at the NAR had no way to spin this…but they tried
NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 5.77 million SAAR in March
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2022/04/more-analysis-on-march-existing-home.html
Tesla Q1 sales jump 81%, zooming past Wall Street estimates; stock rises
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/tesla-q1-sales-jump-81-zooming-past-wall-street-estimates-stock-rises-11650485915
https://www.macrotrends.net/2566/crude-oil-prices-today-live-chart
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/dxy
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EIXIC