Mkt Fag: some dandruff issues early on (H&S) just before Europe closes slow drip lower..but ESF & muh short bus activated into the close edition
Data out today wuz this: the ISM Manufacturing PMI for April grew at a slower pace to 55.4 and missed expectations of 57.6 while trailing March’s 57.1 reading-so YUGE miss and the 'surprise' GDP miss means they continue to be "surprised all this is habbening. The index of Prices Paid dropped from 87.1 to 84.4 and of course they said "it was signal that inflation could be peaking". Good luck with that. They are still trotting out the inflation has peaked mantra-they been doing this for several months now and then they will say-"well it may persist but it will improve (wait for it-they ALWAYS say this)…..In the second half of next year". The fin. MSM can say "investors 'look to the FED' "all they want. That is not what is gong on here but that sounds good. They managed to turn this 'ship' around about fifteen minutes before the last hour (see below comment on TSLA being attacked) and right at 3pm EST it all went "up". Got it ALL green…wut a surprise that is!! Especially with the liquidity index on the Eminis at it's level. All it takes is someone to 'flinch' and the rest pile on''' and that made the short bus cover. Ain't no news that would cause that so they got help-see cap#1 Muh J-J-Janet and the inkjets. They CRUSHED the VIX today and that was the fuggen FED (PPT) doing that 100% guaranteed-they changed out the Head of the Fed Markets Grp. in 2012 to "manage" that-and it got nailed something like three days after they were brought on board.. see this from 2012.
The Head Of The Plunge Protection Team Is Quitting
https://www.silverdoctors.com/headlines/world-news/the-head-of-the-plunge-protection-team-is-quitting/
They dropped all the indices below the neckline twice and loaded up the 'short bus' cause dis is what they do-and then yanked it higher. Lather, rinse, repeat. The rise was quickly sold and created a pretty big intra-day head and shoulders >>16194897 pb on all of the indices-which technically speaking means GET OUT. However we have seen them create this pattern before so it is seen't and then yank it upwards-exactly what you just saw today. When they all start talkin' about tech patterns in the Fin MSM the opposite usually occurs-serial phaggit Cramer is/was famous for this shit. It did complete the right shoulder and dropped lower-but watch out because Europe closes in 8 minutes…proof these are written while it habbens >>16194897 pb DOW lost it's friday close at 11:00amest on the button and continued down and then made a new LOD from it's previous one @12:06pm and should habs been over but right on cue as that new low was made 3.50m transaction outta nowhere comes in and arrested the slide -same exact thing on the NAS at same time. Now this can be peeps trying to catch the bottom (I get that) but they don't all push the button at the same time. Din't seem to help much either-kek! These markets are soooo fuggen shallow at this point cause the EMINI liquidity depth shows that ain't no one there to do much of anything-they all skeer'd. They are all waiting for the return to QE but that never stopped-only the promise that it would. Todays' MbS action was as follows: $3.5b submitted and only $1.35b accepted at full or 'par' value so the trash for cash program is still on-going https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/desk-operations/ambs
They also swapped out $1.796T in bonds to the NYFRB counterparties for "cash"and this is the stealth bailout that has been habbening since March of last year. A reverse repo is when you give them "cash" and they give you worthless paper they hold. A repo is the exact opposite. https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/desk-operations/reverse-repo
All (most of it) the action in the commodity markets are because of muh $-keep that in mind. The drop in Ag not so much as that was the hit job as soon as the NYMEX opened for biz at 8:30am EST. You should also be aware that the stronger the dollar is ''the less exporting we are able to do so all this talk about strong dollar doesn't help us overall and it is just jaw-boning because most peeps don't understand that is actually bad for our mfg. output. It makes our products moar expensive to import. You'd be surprised how many people do NOT know that and they just hear the word "strong" and think "good…our currency iz strong"…DERP!!!
DWAC-got sold hard on the open and HALO'd and din't recover in spite of eveything else that did -4.48 (-8.55%) you have to understand that a product and it's equity price are two different things-do not own this solely on 45's association with DWAC as a company because 'they' know you will buy it just for that reason. 'They' showed a YUGE buy in it early Feb on a market order so that it appeared someone was loading up for the 'long haul'. That was a total bull trap and it was obvious by the action and huge purchases at market. Then look what habbened..from 90's to, 80s, to …you know the rest. 45 haz NO control over what habbens to the stock price-it is a completely different thing. They also did not file some SEC paperwork so that did not help…again NOT UNDER 45's control. It bottomed out just before Europe closed and has done nuffin since then.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DWAC
TSLA trading at (-1.59%)-13.87 about an hour before open >>16194280 pb they even allowed PM results on the open tempting the 'short bus' on the open and yanked it higher forcing those who entered to exit-if they are just day trading it-Hello NYFRB trading desk in Chicago!. And then as the H&S formed it lost all it's mojo at 11:18am est just in front of the European close and treaded water after the right (kinda not that big) shoulder completed. See here for the scenario of Musk's situation with the loans for the twatter purchase: >>16178680 pb Musk's TSLA shares used as collateral for loan reality It does not come into play until the ownership transfer is complete and all shares tendered as it has already traded at $821.xx last thrusday. But they may come back at him prior to this sale being complete IF it trades below that threshold for an extended period of time-it all depends if 'they' want him to acquire it or not. If the threshold is broken under his ownership they can call out his collateral and he must post cash or unrestricted shares as already mentioned. That entire scenario's calculations are based on his restricted vs. unrestricted shares. There was 'someone' soaking up asn ASS-ton of TSLA shares right at 2:42pmest so he has 'frens'. If you have access to L2 data you can see it. It was getting attacked pretty hard and ALL of it was sucked up and since the NAS drop was arrested whoever that was decided 'to leave'. TSLA closed this way 902.94+32.18 (+3.70%) on just under the daily avg volume. Twatter closed 49.18 +0.16 (+0.33%)''' on 29.25m vs 50.97m (avg) so not much going on thre. Focused on EM's collateral with TSLA becasue THAT is what this deal hinges on.
>>16195083 pb TWTR CEO Parag Agrawal expected to be replaced; Elon Musk reportedly has replacement lined up
Treasury complex-see cap#3 and see article below re: BIG dumping in Bond Complex Yields rising (and at multi-year highs) as equities get bought at the start so they are really getting close to having to do 75bp on Weds and that would be the first since 1994. 10 yr touched 3% at 11:21am EST and then backed off slightly-only to revisit it at @ 1:16pm est @3.0003 and they are really trying to NOT get that printed over the 3% level-and only got it just under. CME FedWatch has already baked that (75bp rise into the cake for June) but Mkt fag thinks they will do 75bp on Weds to "show" they are not totally impotent-ProTip: dhey are-cap this nigga. 10yr is at 3% so it a done deal (75bp) cause they can't really show dhere hand otherwise the peeps that do not understand this will freak out, i.e. the ones who think the FOMC set rates. click here : https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html and select 15 Jun22 for that 'story'. Go back to 4 May22 for the 'story' on 50bp. They will panic and do 75bp and it will be "not expected". TSY yields surged higher across the board today with the short-end outperforming. This will be the 6th straight week of Treasury losses if it holds through the chaos of The Fed. 10Y Real yield goes positive for the first time since Mar 2020, spiking up to 0.16% intraday. If they don't (raise them by 75bp) they just get further and further behind and the bond market is just gonna do it for them anyway-that is exactly what they are doing now. The flip side of this is that they REALLY panic and reverse the recent raise in Prime-not completely out of the question but the CME FedWatch does (and won't) not reflect that.
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/bond/tmubmusd10y
>>16165819 pb from Wed April27 >had a 5yr auction today and it was Meh…highest yields since Nov 2018 with foreign buyers aka Mrs Watanabe took out 64.0% which left the direct buyers with moar than usual @19.5 You may recall the comment I had saying "don't piss off Mrs. Watanabe….well she mad now. To recap 'Mrs. Watanabe' is description given to the way that Treasury reclassified how they report Direct vs. Indirect buyers around 2005/6 and the result was it showed a massive amount of foreign, i.e Japanese mostly, and the term came to be "Don't piss off Mrs. Watanabe" as before it was just lumped into a larger bucket-see below and this is just getting started.'''
Biggest Treasury Buyer Outside U.S. Quietly Offloads Billions
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/biggest-treasury-buyer-outside-u-s-quietly-offloads-billions-1.1759793
US$/Muh Yen/Ruble/FOREX-see cap#4 for 1 month chart on US$
Dollar extending it's reach upwards today 103.64 0.68 +0.66% and is based on other currencies dropping i.e mostly the Yen. 20 year highs on muh US$ and ¥ is at 130.16 which is driving the $. On the technical front the first point of resistance on Muh Yen is right around 130.50 then 131 but in this environment it means very little. Kuroda is in complete denial about all this and even said wayyyyyy back in March that he "did not see the Yen continuing to depreciate". That is why you came to the US two weeks ago cryin' like a pussy only to be turned away by Janet at the Treasury so all he really has left is muh currency swaps at the NYFRB and they are already busy with the E.U at $2b+ since early March. The Ruble continues it advance and up @ $0.014149 0.000134 0.96% up almost 1% just keeps on keeping on-was introduced to the Kherson region just recently too so more usage and this continues to have the conversion so Europe can buy gas. https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/currency/rubusd
Oil/Energy Dropped WTI on the open pretty hard-down to $101.xx and it recovered to just above $104 and looking very tired dhere. The usual rhetoric being applied to that "muh economic growth concerns in the US and China" and the impending Russian Oil ban is kinda being ignored. Libya said there were going to restart production at Zueitina oil terminal becasue it declared Force Majeure a few days ago. Natty gas rose (+5%) as the D.O.E approved LNG exports from Louisiana, Texas facilities-that was on Friday, April 27th. The D.O.E reports U.S. LNG exports are at a new high of 12 billion cubic feet per day and moving toward 13 billion cubic feet by the end of 2022, with the bulk heading to Europe. A new terminal at Golden Pass in scheduled to go online in 2024 as well. WTI closed @$105.26+0.57 (+0.54%)and had quite teh the BTFD moment in it starting right at 11:00am est https://www.macrotrends.net/2566/crude-oil-prices-today-live-chart
Pemex Swings to $6 Billion Profit on Price Rally, Stable Output
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/pemex-swings-to-6-billion-profit-on-price-rally-stable-output-1.1759990
EU Ministers Hold Meeting to Discuss Russian Gas
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/video/eu-ministers-hold-meeting-to-discuss-russian-gas~2432856
https://www.macrotrends.net/2566/crude-oil-prices-today-live-chart
Metals-see cap#5-the drop in both started early with Ag down -0.18 -0.77% and AU down -8.50 -0.45% a few hours into the Asian sessions. Usually it's pretty quite with not much movements at all-and right on cue with the NYMEX open @8:30am est BOOM-dropped like a rock >>16194351 pb and then it got bought just above the $22 level-this is paper and not phyzz. Nice recovery though on that bounce as it's attempt to drop it below $22 got rejected nicely-make no mistake though this is going lower-easily see $20 or lower. The problem is the supply issue only exacerbates as a call to muh local on Sat told me that he haz nuffin-translated means I habs nothing you'd want to buy-I have plenty of US Eagles at just below $40 and nothing in generic rounds at 1oz or 10oz. This is just one place however if you do a little looking around it is like this everywhere. Au is giving it up and just got worse and worse throughout the day but it is still in the middle of it's two year range so not a big deal. What this does is lower the Gold/Silver ratio but it is still above $80 @ 82.240 −1.027 (−1.23%) again if you habs Au exchange it for Ag. I will keep repeating this over and over. You have to ask yourself every other commodity has sky'd (over the last 6 months mind you) this is still below HALF of it's all time highs in 1980 and 2011. When they hate it you need to L-O-V-E IT.
https://goldprice.com/gold-silver-ratio/
Some Headlines
>>16194281 pb US TIPS bonds tops 0% for first time since March 2020
>>16194291, >>16194314 pb Goldman Traders’ Streak of $100 Million Days Hits 11-Year High + haz only $4.34B backing $47.95T in derivatives
Ukraine war, China lockdowns drag down 70% of Asia's biggest equities
https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Market-Spotlight/Ukraine-war-China-lockdowns-drag-down-70-of-Asia-s-biggest-equities
tick, tock on both of these articles re: Australia-Norway and Sweden should be posting some really "stellar" results some as well….since they went full retard into our markets several years ago and bought the NAS heavily….kek
Australia Soverign Wealth Fund Posts Biggest Quarterly Loss in Two Years
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/australia-wealth-fund-posts-biggest-quarterly-loss-in-two-years-1.1759818
Australia Yields Hit Highest Since 2014 With RBA, Fed Hikes Seen
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-02/australia-yields-hit-highest-since-2014-with-rba-fed-hikes-seen
Price of diesel hits all-time high, straining the trucking industry
https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/price-of-diesel-hits-all-time-high-straining-the-trucking-industry
Saudi Arabia economy grows at fastest pace in decade on oil boom
https://publisher.tbsnews.net/analysis/saudi-arabia-economy-grows-fastest-pace-decade-oil-boom-412686
https://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html
https://www.kitco.com/charts/livesilver.html
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EIXIC