Mkt Fag: The Day AFTER-$1.3T……sold to you edition
This is just a representation-cap#1 of the normies expectations of the markets as this is all very orderly-even though it is down it is NOT panic-selling-see moar below. They only care when it goes down and since it went up yesterday they pretty much din't notice but they will today"wait …wut?"
And right on cue into the close it was muh spray job (painting the tape) but hilarious as look where it is and almost all (smart) shorts covered into that-why wouldn't you! Take it off the table and live for another day bank it and go outside. Tomorrow is another day. You don't really want to wait for some news to come out and they reverse this on you wiping out what would have been a great day (if you were short and took it on the close-I woulda taken it at 3pm est)
Yesterday the SP500 recorded its biggest one-day percentage gain in nearly two years-because the "UP" bottom was pushed to create the space that they needed to start selling into that close-volumes were heavy into it. >>16210031 pb Even though Jerry said NFW (75bp raise) the CME Fedwatch has 75bp backed in at next meeting " traders saw a 87.1% chance of a 75bp hike by the Fed at its June 15 meeting" https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html Since they are so impotent the bond market (the whole thing) is having kittens today because the 10 year is SOLIDLY over 3%-this is what they worked so hard to keep it under for yesterdays announcement and you see that it was basically balling up sales (for a bit) to make sure the UP button worked-then they all backed off and up it went. You must identify when shit like this habbens …you cannot fight it you will always lose when you are "right" but the results do not reflect that…just go with the flow.. VIX massively reversed - now back above 32 @ 32.45+7.03(+27.66%) calling the Head of the FRB Markets group on line 1-look for an unnatural smackage down in that as it wouldn't be the first or last time. It just got worse and worse as if it was on yer books it got offered and it din't matter at what price for a while'''-that slowed down a bit around 12pm est and it all went sideways -but the damage was done in those first few hours. Remember yesterday was the best performance for a Fed rate-hike day since 1978!
This is NOT capitulation…not even close-too orderly-the 'bots make sure of that. 11:08am 1.40B NAS trans (and another at 2:16pm est @ 2.81B) and it took 2 hours waffling along the lows everywhere to take a stab at going lower from that 12pm low in the NAS, DOW/SP500 is still slightly above those lows with the ^RUT doing a little better but his is all not pretty. The Nasdaq 100 Index fell 6% at its lows-30 minutes prior to close, the most since March 2020. fully reversing yesterday's post-FOMC gains. Within a week we’ve now seen two of the biggest 24-hour turn-arounds for the index since 1985. oday was the biggest drop in 'most-shorted' stocks since Feb 2021's peak after the record melt-up… The Fin MSM are hilarious "it looks like panic selling!!" kek NOT EVEN CLOSE..must be some 30-something "writers" doing that. TSLA LOD (so far) was $872.50 but made a new one at 2:39pm est and bounced off dhat-but then right at 3pm it was new LOD . TWTR it held $50 but just barely 50.45+1.39 (+2.83%) they are letting him "have it" but it also had some weakness into the last hour and THIS is all you need to know about that >>16215830 pb see below for more as there are two sides to this coin. This is also based on TWTR share price finally making some action at the offer price when everything else being dropped- but still below the recent high of $51.70. He's gonna be the CEO (temp) and Dopey is onboard now….kek!!!! As long as the margin call issue doesn't get declared (and judging by Dopey "welcoming him") they will NOT declare default on his collateral-but they could at any time if $837/sh is breached so he must do what THEY want. I've already said when it was announced that the system totally wants this . He is already stretched way too thin so how much time does he really have-even as temp CEO. Don't forget HOW he got where he is today……they can use that as leverage against him. He doesn't do what they want they drop TSLA and declare but they also can drop it and ignore-which, as long as he toes their line, they won't. Dopey is also controlled like the rest and all you have to remember is the "twitch" interview a while back-wasn't even him imo as if you've done what he has done I wouldn't ever let him see the light of day >>16216360 pb (ty anon)
Muh guess is that if they don't arrest the TSLA share drop cause that is getting MURDERED cause it is 3.34% lower than the NAS' drop today. It is $36.37/sh from the 'trigger' point with it's collateral for the TWTR purchase. Now they can just ignore it (and Wall St has a big issue with that) when consequences should be had but they don't allow them-see Evergrande-off-shore debt, MF Global, AIG, Bear Stearns..I could keep going but you get the idea.
NYFRB-Operations today
Trash for cash today-backed off a bit on the total amount but still did two $6.65B submitted and NYFRB took in $1.9B
https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/desk-operations/ambs
Reverse Repo was $1.84T
https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/desk-operations/reverse-repo
Treasury complex-see cap#3 Yields on a tear upwards-they "should" be dropping with the bomb going off in all the indices. Mortgage Rates Hit 5.27%, Highest Level Since 2009 -30Y yields are up 16bps…they cannot get rid of all that paper fastenough. 10yr high was 3.106% right after 2pm est and then backed off towards the 4pmest market close. The long-end under-performing (30Y +13bps, 2Y +6bps), massively unwinding yesterday's moves…
Mortgage applications fall as rates hit 13-year high
Mortgage applications fell 8.3% on a seasonally adjusted basis during the week ended April 22, as mortgage rates hit their highest level since 2009, the Mortgage Bankers Association said, citing its Market Composite Index. The average contract interest rate for conforming 30-year mortgages of $647,200 or less jumped to 5.37% from 5.2%, while the rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages backed by the Federal Housing Administration increased to 5.29% from 5.11%.
https://houstonagentmagazine.com/2022/04/27/mortgage-applications-fall-as-rates-hit-13-year-high/
US$/Muh Yen/Ruble/FOREX-see cap#4 Muh Ruble was up again today 0.000262 1.73% @ $0.015385 and just continues to outperform (rubble muh ass-how did that work out!). The dollar index climbed starting about 6:30am EST and was @ $103.51 0.93 +0.90% on the close and that erased it's weakness from yesterday (DERP!!!) Muh ¥ continues it's meeting with 140 now and at same time (as Ruble) was at 130.10 +0.78% and you can hear the seppuku knives being sharpened in Tokyo-see article below on what BofA "thinks" they will do/spend….good luck
Japan May Spend $100 Billion to Slow Yen’s Slide, BofA Says
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/japan-may-spend-100-billion-to-slow-yen-s-slide-bofa-says-1.1761317
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/currency/rubusd
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/currency/usdjpy
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/dxy
Oil/Energy-not much going on in WT! as they have kept it at just below $108 but closed it +0.57(+0.53%)and looking tired there- after the big spike up to just over $111.2x and then right back down-gets sold hard on every spike up. Natty gas continues to rise and they have a huge issue here as they NEED it and will continue to purchase it but saying out of the other side of mouth 'Russia BAD'-but here is our currency to convert into Rubles but SHHHHHH..don't tell no one….kek. A little background here: at their peak, natural gas prices averaged $4.40 per thousand cubic feet in 2008 and 2014, while diving to $2.10 at its low point in 2020 . All exacerbated by the prices soaring in everything you 'need' and dropping in things you 'don't need'.
EU Not To Refuse Russian Natural Gas-and this is moar opinionated so take it fer what it's worth but has some good points-political stance notwithstanding
https://ukranews.com/en/news/855001-eu-not-to-refuse-russian-natural-gas-charles-michel
and this here is so Potato can sue OPEC and be 'seen' doing something.
U.S. Senate Passes NOPEC Antitrust Bill'
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/US-Senate-Passes-NOPEC-Antitrust-Bill.html
Metals-see cap#5 for Ag- At least they waited until after the NYMEX was opened to smash Ag but Au not so much-pretty indifferent today @ -2.30 -0.12% est but not the story with Ag and absolutely destroyed and that started at 12:30am EST with 11.22k and then at 2:34am est another 14.32k contracts sold invented out of thin air but the damage did not show until it peaked at 8:56am EST with it's price at $23.38 and thenfuggen BOOM. By 12:04pm est it finally found a bottom at about $22.35 and then went sideways for the rest of the session -totally organic and on display for all to see-if you want to. At 5k oz per contract that is a total of 127,700,000 ozs traded in just those two transactions-and this is before the NYMEX opened at 8:30am EST. Yesterday it did 309,740,000 ozs in paper. Won't get the final #s until later from here: https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/metals/precious/silver.volume.options.html#optionProductId=458
Gold/Silver ratio improved $83.621 +1.770 (+2.16%)-these don't move around much after 1:30pmest (except yesterday and when big news comes out)-this is where it was @ 3:30pm EST
Ag closed with the markets at -0.48 -2.09%
https://goldprice.com/gold-silver-ratio/
Some Headlines
rotsa ruck with this….and see below as the wheels start to come off data wise-they can fix dis with a simple clicka da mouse but at some point they won't be able to. Have said this before many times-'blowing it up' doesn't mean it drops. If that habbens then 'they' buy it all back up on the cheap and we reset this bitch and takes much longer to get disconnected from all the BS.
China Bets The House On New Houses
https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/china-bets-house-new-houses
China’s PBOC Sets Yuan Fixing at Stronger-Than-Expected Level
The offshore and onshore yuan fell more than 4% against the dollar in April, marking their worst declines on record. The fixing limits the onshore yuan’s moves by 2% on either side.
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/china-s-pboc-sets-yuan-fixing-at-stronger-than-expected-level-1.1761311
China Caixin services PMI drops to lowest level in more than 2 years
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/china-caixin-services-pmi-drops-to-lowest-in-more-than-two-years-271651716763
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EIXIC
https://www.kitco.com/charts/livesilver.html
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/dxy