https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/report-simulating-deadly-monkeypox-outbreak-was-released-six-months-ago/ar-AAXEASC?ocid=msedgntp&cvid
Last year, current and former world leaders joined experts to conduct a tabletop exercise simulating a deadly monkeypox outbreak. And now, the results of that exercise are attracting fresh attention, with monkeypox making headlines after cases were reported in a dozen countries—including the U.S., U.K. and Australia—in a surprising outbreak of a disease that rarely appears outside of Africa.
The Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI) partnered with the Munich Security Conference for its annual exercise on March 17, 2021—virtually due to COVID-19— and summarized the scenario, key findings and actionable recommendations in a report released in November.
The NTI's exercise scenario portrayed "a deadly, global pandemic involving an unusual strain of monkeypox virus that emerged in the fictional nation of Brinia and spread globally over 18 months," the report said.
In the scenario, the initial (simulated) outbreak was caused by a terrorist attack in May 2022 "using a pathogen engineered in a laboratory with inadequate biosafety and biosecurity provisions and weak oversight."
During the exercise, cases began to emerge in early June and the fictional pandemic ultimately resulted in more than 3 billion cases of monkeypox and 270 million deaths by the end of the exercise, the report said.
In the real world, the World Health Organization said it has received reports of 92 lab-confirmed cases of monkeypox and 28 suspected cases from a dozen countries between May 13 and 22. No deaths have been reported.
Cases have "mainly but not exclusively" been identified among men who have sex with men, the WHO said, and a leading WHO advisor has said the virus appears to have gotten into the population through sexual contact. The CDC and health experts have stressed that anyone can contract monkeypox through close contact.
Still, the NTI's decision to use monkeypox for the fictional scenario and the timeline outlined in the non-profit organization's report has led some to the conclusion that it "predicted" the current outbreak.
A year ago, at a munich conference, the NTI predicted a monkeypox terror attack in May 2022 in a germ game, except it appears they were the terrorists https://t.co/kCzsY6aTcj pic.twitter.com/3M4PMz7041
— Daniel Horowitz (@RMConservative) May 20, 2022
But Jaime Yassif, vice president of Global Biological Policy and Programs at NTI and the report's lead author, said the use of monkeypox as the virus in the exercise scenario was coincidental.
"We wanted to select a pathogen that would be a plausible fit for our fictional scenario, and we chose monkeypox from a range of options offered by our expert advisers," she told Newsweek. "The fact that several countries are currently experiencing an outbreak of monkeypox is purely a coincidence."
The NTI designed the scenario "to create an opportunity for participants to discuss urgently needed improvements in global capabilities to prevent and respond to pandemics" following the impact of COVID-19, Yassif added.
The exercise was co-chaired by NTI CEO Dr. Ernest J. Moniz, who is a former U.S secretary of energy, and Wolfgang Ischinger, Germany's former ambassador to the United States who was the head of the Munich Security Conference until earlier this year.
Participants included NTI founder and former Senator Sam Nunn, Dr. Beth Cameron, who previously served as the senior director for global health security and biodefense on the U.S. National Security Council, Dr. George Gao, the director-general of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention and Michael Ryan, executive director of WHO Health Emergencies Program.