Pre-Planned in 2015 during the Food Chain Reaction— A Global Food Security Game
Mary “Kate” Fisher, Ph.D., Yee San Su, Ph.D
Stress continues to mount in the global food system. While 2022 starts without crop
problems, food is still expensive, and normal crop harvests are only large enough to
slow the continuing rise in food prices. Public dissent continues and migration
within and from food-importing Africa persists, in spite of progress on regional free
trade agreements, exerting pressure on the African continent and Europe. Despite an
intended increased focus on social protection by multilateral organizations, a lack of
clear fundraising means that relief agencies are running low on cash and are
challenged to address rising hunger stress.
Things turn worse in 2023. In the Northern Hemisphere, heavy spring rains flood
the Mississippi River, disrupting orderly export flow. Later that year, contract
disputes between labor union members and their employers result in a strike at
shipping ports in the Pacific Northwest. Both events temporarily disrupt U.S. exports,
highlighting the sensitivity of supply chains in the global food system. World prices
rise, awaiting supply relief, but more problems loom. China and India experience
drought. Chinese scientists report that declines in underground water are disrupting
irrigation, exacerbated by policies focused on achieving self-sufficiency in rice and
wheat. Heat and dryness in India damage crop yields, cause heat stroke in the
population, and affect power production. Russia and Ukraine experience heat stress
that reduces grain supplies.
By the end of 2023, tight global stocks push food prices upward even further, beyond
the 2007–2012 peaks of 280 percent. The impacts register in many dimensions.
Urban poor in the most vulnerable geographies become increasingly food insecure.
Relief agencies issue urgent pleas for contributions. '''Organization of Petroleum
Exporting Countries (OPEC) members, prompted by food import budget stress,
organize strict production controls driving petroleum above $100 per barrel. Despite
United States and European Union actions to reduce biofuels mandates, biofuels
production remains steady, continuing to aggravate the food balance.''' High crop
prices accelerate land clearing in South America outside of Brazil, due to strict
adherence to its Forest Code, and tropical Asia, causing climate experts to warn that
new CO2 release will contribute to long-term warming.
Finally, although Food Chain Reaction took place weeks before COP21, it is
important to build on the energy from the game, from Paris, and beyond. The
motivation is clear: '''The game saw the world agree to a global price on carbon
that, amidst crisis, didn’t lose traction. Players stayed the path that would
lend the political will to address a key underlying cause of volatility—climate
change—and achieve a global emissions cap by 2030.'''
https://www.cna.org/archive/CNA_Files/pdf/iqr-2015-u-012427.pdf