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Virtue Sanctioning of oil doesn't work (just like Socialism doesn't work).
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https://irinaslav.substack.com/p/its-embargo-time
"It's embargo time
… Meanwhile, the White House is making inquiries into some of the refinery closures and apparently considering asking oil refiners to reopen some idled capacity. Because, as we can all imagine, it takes a week to restart an idled refinery and all will be well.
On a totally unrelated note, global refining capacity excluding the U.S. has shrunk by over 2 million bpd over the last two years. What a time to impose oil embargoes, right?
Right now, this means that should the EU stick to its in-principle agreement and transform it into a practical agreement, it would not only have a limited pool of crude for its refineries, it will also have a limited pool of ready oil products, neither of which will be more affordable than current oil and product imports are.
Then, of course, there is the question of whether the EU will not actually continue to import Russian crude and products but under a different name. Someone on Twitter joked that “If its 49% Russian, it’s good” and I think this is not too far-fetched.
If oil supply is as tight as the majority of analysts are saying, any oil would be better than no oil and it would be safe to speculate that a lot of blind eyes would be turned on oil blending here and there. After all, we’ve seen it happen with Iranian crude for years now.
So, what awaits us in most of Europe, is higher prices for energy and for everything that uses energy to reach its end consumer. Good times are ahead, especially for renewable energy developers and EV makers, with EC President Von der Leyen accurately, although convolutedly pointing out in that now notorious Brzezinski interview that the war in the Ukraine will push the EU further into the arms of wind and solar.
Meanwhile, down here, we, the poorest of the poor, are getting a temporary exemption from the oil import sanctions until the middle or the end of 2024. The EU, in other words, is confident that it can survive its own sanctions unscathed for another two years, at least. I have to give them top points for confidence."