High stakes: National security community braces for nuclear brinkmanship if summit fails
All signs may point to a successful and historic summit between President Trump and Kim Jong-un, but the stakes are so high that the U.S. national security community is braced for the possibility of a rapid spiral toward nuclear brinkmanship if the talks between the two men turn sour.
With the North Korean side notorious for bizarre antics and sudden walkouts from diplomatic meetings, it remains anyone’s guess how Tuesday’s face-to-face will ultimately play out — even as most analysts agree that Mr. Trump and Mr. Kim are both driven by domestic political motives to make it appear as a major success.
“It’s very hard for me to imagine this summit not succeeding,” said Robert L. Gallucci, a former chief U.S. negotiator with the North Koreans, although he acknowledged that a sudden meltdown in Singapore could trigger a quick reversal to the threat-soaked posturing between Mr. Trump and Mr. Kim just a year ago.
“The president of the United States might hop on his airplane and come home pretty unhappy,” Mr. Gallucci, now a professor at Georgetown University, said Friday at a discussion hosted by the Center for a New American Security in Washington. “We would be in a situation in which we were once again talking preventive strikes and the South Koreans would be caught in the middle.”
Others have put it more bluntly. Victor Cha, also a former U.S. negotiator and now adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, has said “the danger of a failed summit is that it could actually take us a step closer to armed conflict, because there is no diplomacy left after a [failed] summit.”
Mr. Cha made the comment in April to the House Foreign Affairs Committee, arguing that “a preventative unilateral attack by the United States on North Korea” would need congressional approval and take into “sober account” the possibility of counterstrikes targeting the 350,000 U.S. military personnel and other Americans living in Japan and South Korea.
While Mr. Trump has upped hopes for success — tweeting just before arrival in Singapore of “a feeling that this one-time opportunity will not be wasted!” — his optimism comes against a backdrop in which the summit nearly fell apart just a few weeks ago.
Mr. Trump canceled the summit in late May after North Korea suddenly hurled invective at Washington — and specifically National Security Adviser John R. Bolton — for suggesting that Pyongyang’s complete denuclearization must happen quickly along a “Libya model.”
With South Korea scrambling to mediate, the two sides worked through the hiccup and got the summit back on track. But the danger of a potential collapse felt all the more real when a Pentagon spokesperson told reporters in late May that the U.S. military was “ready to fight tonight” should North Korea launch strikes against American interests or allies.
The comment was reminiscent of the height of brinkmanship in August, when fears of an armed clash soared amid Mr. Trump’s warning that North Korea could face “fire and fury like the world has never seen.” He made the threat after reports that Pyongyang had succeeded in building a nuclear bomb small enough to fit inside an intercontinental ballistic missile.
https:// www.washingtontimes.com/news/2018/jun/10/us-ready-north-korea-nuclear-crisis-if-talks-fail/