The CBS News Battleground Tracker model finds Republicans start the 2022 campaign with a lead in the race for the House, with 230 seats to 205 seats for Democrats. The party with 218 seats controls the House.

Control of Congress is won and lost in districts, of course, so to bring you this estimate we've surveyed tens of thousands of voters across them all, and connected their current preferences to the 2020 Census, district data and millions of voter records to estimate seat counts. That makes it a picture of things today, not a forecast; it's July, not November.

Our accompanying survey this week gives insights into why things stand as they do, including whether the conditions for a wave could emerge — because there isn't one now — and on the flip side, some real warning signs for the GOP.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/republicans-house-2022-midterm-elections-opinion-poll-2022-07-31/