The CSIS estimates that the PLA had a minimum of 425 missile launchers capable of hitting the US bases. Not only Diego Garcia but the whole of the US is within the striking range of China’s longest-range intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) Dongfeng (DF)-41, which can hit targets as far as 15,000 km. The DF-41, which can carry 10 independently targeted nuclear warheads, could theoretically hit the US in 30 minutes, according to the CSIS.
If the US decides to reuse the Taiwanese Ching Chuan Kang Air Base — as it did during the Cold War — to neutralise a Chinese attack, it will be vulnerable to the DF-16 short-range ballistic missile. China can also easily target the US air bases in Japan with its DF-21 medium-range ballistic missile and land-based cruise missile CJ-10.
Guam killer missile
On 17 April 2020, the US ended its 2004 Continuous Bomber Presence (CBP) programme on Guam with the Strategic Command explaining that the B-52s, B1s and B2s could still be deployed in the Pacific when needed.
Before Beijing unveiled the DF-26 in 2015, Guam was considered a safe base from where the three bombers undertook the Bomber Assurance and Deterrence mission in six-month rotations to reassure American allies South Korea and Japan.
Not anymore. The real reason for ending the programme was the threat of the Chinese intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) DF-26, dubbed the ‘Guam Killer’ by American analysts. The Andersen Air Force Base, the Apra Naval Base and the 6,000 US military personnel on Guam are within striking distance of DF-26 (5,400 km range) from mainland China.
According to Timothy Heath, a senior international defence researcher with RAND, the Chinese military could have “easily plotted ways of destroying the bombers due to their well-known presence”.
Similarly, the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission said in its November 2016 report: “Foremost among China’s military assets capable of reaching Guam, the DF-26 IRBM represents the culmination of decades of advancement to China’s conventional ballistic missile forces.”
In its report titled, ‘Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China 2020’, the US department of defence said that the DF-26 is “capable of conducting precision strikes in the Western Pacific, the Indian Ocean, and the South China Sea from mainland China”.
Besides, the PLAAF’s H-6K bomber, which has a combat radius of 3,700 km, can target Guam with its Changjian-20 cruise missiles.
The distance factor will also favour China following the scrapping of the CBP programme. Hinote too pointed out the distance disadvantage after the CNAS war game. In a China-Taiwan war, the US will dispatch the bombers from their bases in North Dakota, South Dakota and Louisiana but they will take, at least, 14-15 hours to reach the conflict zone.