dChan - Q Origins Project Archive

Why the West imposed sanctions on the Russian Federation and how it will affect the aviation industry

Changing a supplier like VSMPO-Avisma would be very difficult and very expensive. The cost of the decision is so high that neither Airbus nor Boeing has released approximate figures so far.

It was reported the other day that Boeing (which suspended titanium purchases indefinitely in March. - Approx. Life) allegedly ordered titanium from Japan and found an alternative supplier. But after a closer look, it turned out that what he ordered from Japan was not a finished product, but a sponge titanium, that is, something that still needs to be processed, which means additional costs.

For its processing, huge electrolytic furnaces are required. For stamping parts, a powerful multi-layer press is required (there is a press at VSMPO-Avisma with a pressure of 75,000 tons. - approx. life), and then the parts are stamped. There are large milling machines, and then these parts are machined, and they are ground. Finishing after machining.

Not to say too much, in principle, it is problematic for a country to master the entire technology chain. If it succeeds, the production cost will be so high that it is difficult to buy products. Titanium sponge is not buried in the ground - you must first extract ilmenite (a mineral derived from titanium and iron oxide), melt it in mining and processing plants, and then process it. The ilmenite mining and dressing enterprise is located in the Tomsk region and develops the Tugan ilmenite zirconium sand deposit. According to experts, the available reserves there will last for 80 years.

The second largest titanium mine is located in the Tambov region. Currently, Soviet and post-Soviet logistics have been rebuilt, with the largest suppliers of ilmenite at the time being Chile, Australia, China and Ukraine. After 2014, ilmenite began to be actively sourced in Senegal and South Africa. In the 2010s, Russia shifted its focus to developing its own ilmenite reserves. We are second only to China in terms of numbers.

Today, no other manufacturer in the world can control the entire production chain with such precision. Even at VSMPO-Avisma, everything is structured: VSMPO works on titanium smelting, Avisma works on stamped products.

Russia has managed to establish this vertical integration, which makes the titanium embargo meaningless. Potentially, if Airbus or Boeing start working with other titanium companies, they will face the risk of inevitable costs, higher purchase prices, etc., and eventually return them to Russia.

Attempts are not torture, or why the West doesn't want to pay

After Russia annexed Crimea in 2014, Airbus has tried to find an alternative but has never found one. No one can supply titanium parts for an aircraft of this quality. If the recognized flagship of the aviation industry starts using parts of untested quality, it risks reputational risk: a crashed plane is enough to ruin Airbus' reputation and ruin contracts worth billions of euros.

Fighting Boeing and SpaceX: Why the West is begging Russia not to impose a ban on titanium exports

You can call out a moratorium on purchases, that's a political statement, and that's what's going on in the West right now. But the next step is to figure out a way to come back quietly (so as not to fall into the boss's eyes), having tested the ground before. For this, you need to wait.

Can they sit for a while (with a cumulative reserve of titanium parts. - Approximate lifespan)? yes. They clearly have some sort of inventory in their warehouses, especially given that demand for planes has dropped due to the pandemic. In fact, even Boeing reported in the first quarter of 2022 that it had produced 95 planes, less than half of what it had before the pandemic. So reserve

According to him, the reserves are clearly not enough to make the long wait. Sooner or later the question of whether to return to Russia or replace Russian titanium entirely will arise. The last one will take years. The workload is enormous, comparable to the Industrial Revolution.

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