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Rest of the article:Media Now Falsely Claim Biden Administration Underestimated Negative U.S. EconomicImpact from Russian Sanctions
Bloomberg is running this article as a distraction, directly implying the Biden administration did not realize how much additional damage the sanctions against Russia would create. There are many articles of a similar nature by multiple outlets. All of them are designed to ignore the reality of the situation.
We are rapidly assembling data now that will allow us to give CTH readers a real-world estimate of just how damaging things are going to be.
Tracking raw materials, supply chain costs, distribution limits, advanced and sequential purchase orders, as well as inbound costs associated with the supply chain for essential goods and services, we are nearing enough data to make a prediction.
In the fall of 2021 CTH was able to provide a 100-day countdown window to the first major wave of inflationary impacts. Purchase orders cycling in net terms of 30, 60, 90 or 180 days allowed us to see the increases in product costs that were aggregating in the supply chain. Readers watched in real time as those weeks and months passed giving us the exact outcome we expected.
While we still need a little more data to make the best possible prediction for the next 120-day forecast, I am relatively certain we can give an advanced estimate today.
A current shopping cart of traditional staple items at the supermarket (full basket) is roughly $300 representing about a $75 increase in price since early January 2022. The $300 typical basket is essentially enough product to create 10 days of multiple purpose meals for the average family (4 people).
Using that $300 basket as the new baseline, I can predict the next wave of price increases will drive that single basket cost to $500 by late fall. This is the scale of inbound inflation that is going to arrive at approximately the same time as the mid-term election.
As you can tell, the next wave of price increases is significantly larger than the two that preceded it. The $300 shopping cart is going to cost around $500 when all of the increased costs are fully matriculated in the retail supply chain. This is the scale of food store inflation you should be preparing for now. Offsetting this cost increase is the challenge you should be considering right now.
More details will follow, but the final numbers are going to be close to this scale.
https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2022/06/15/get-beyond-the-gaslighting-media-now-falsely-claim-biden-administration-underestimated-negative-u-s-economic-impact-from-russian-sanctions/