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A drag queen violently shoves a woman to the floor and then continues performing during a drag show

https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/numbers-dont-lie-fed-wont-win-inflation-fight

The Numbers Don't Lie; The Fed Won't Win This Inflation Fight

The central bankers at the Federal Reserve continue to talk tough about fighting inflation.

But is it a fight they can win?

The numbers say no.

After the CPI data cooled a bit in July, many observers expected the Fed to declare victory and begin pivoting away from tightening monetary policy. Instead, the central bankers doubled down on the tough talk. Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari said the Fed remains “far, far away from declaring victory” on inflation. He went on to say he hasn’t seen anything that changes the trajectory of the Fed’s inflation fight. Kaskari remained adamant that the central bank needs raise rates to 3.9% by the end of the year and to 4.4% by the end of 2023. He even insisted he won’t be deterred by a recession.

The markets seem to have faith in the Fed’s ability to bring inflation down to 2% and keep it there for most of the next 30 years. Peter Schiff said they are “living in fantasy land.”

There is no way the Fed is going to even come close to achieving that for 30 years. They’re not even going to achieve it for three years. Yet, investors are still operating under the delusion that the Federal Reserve can do what it claims it’s going to do.

Peter is right.

For all the tough talk about stopping inflation, the Fed’s plan isn’t enough.

Pushing rates to 3 or 4 percent won’t tame 8.5% CPI.

If you look at all of the Fed tightening cycles since 1973, the central bank has never stopped tightening before the Fed funds rate was higher than the CPI.

It’s clear from the chart that the Fed has a lot of tightening to do before it brings the real rate positive. It’s also clear that 3 or 4 percent isn’t going to get the job done.

Analyzing interest rates based on the Taylor Rule leads us to the same conclusion.

Economist John Taylor came up with a formula that links the Federal Reserve’s benchmark interest rate to levels of inflation and economic growth. Based on the Taylor Rule, the Fed fund rate needs to be 9.69% assuming 2% real neutral rates.

Given the history and the model, it is difficult to fathom how exactly the Federal Reserve is going to tame inflation over the long term.

Keep in mind that the CPI is actually higher than the government numbers suggest. If we use the CPI formula from the 1970s, rates would need to be over 17% in order to slay inflation.

And while the 3 or 4 percent interest rate won’t stop the inflation freight train, it will pop the bubble economy that was built on easy money and debt. In fact, we’re already in a recession despite mainstream pleading to the contrary. This is why Peter Schiff says we are about to experience the worst of both worlds – high inflation and a recession.

I’m not going to give credit to the Federal Reserve for trying to put out a fire that it lit. And by the way, they’re not even putting enough water on it to put it out. The Fed should have raised interest rates a lot more than it already has. And it should be raising them a lot more. It’s gone much too slow. And not because the economy can handle it. It can’t. We’re already in a recession. They just want to ignore that. The recession is going to get worse if the Fed continues to raise interest rates. But it shouldn’t stop just because it’s going to put the economy into a depression or create a financial crisis. It has to do that. The only way to fight inflation is to remove all the inflation from the economy that the Fed put in there. So, they have to shrink their balance sheet. They have to let interest rates go way up. They have to force the government to slash government spending. But unfortunately, none of that is going to happen. This recession is going to get much worse, and Powell is going to pivot in defeat. He’s going to focus his attention on trying to stimulate the economy and let inflation run out of control.”

Finland Braces For Rolling Blackouts This Winter

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/finland-braces-rolling-blackouts-winter

Finland should be prepared for possible power outages this winter in case of shortfalls in electricity supply, the Finnish grid operator said on Tuesday, in yet another warning of an energy crunch in Europe after gas supply from Russia was severely reduced.

In Finland's case, Gazprom stopped in May all gas deliveries to Russia's neighbor to the West, making Finland the third EU member state with Russian pipeline supply cut off after Poland and Bulgaria. The halt of Russian supply to Finland took place days after Finland—together with its Scandinavian neighbor Sweden—formally applied to join NATO in the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Russia has warned both countries against applying to become NATO members.

Finland gets up to 70 percent of the gas it uses from Russia, but gas doesn't have a large share in the overall energy mix and accounts for 5 percent of total energy consumption.

"The war in Europe and the exceptional situation on the energy market have increased uncertainties related to the availability of electricity. As a result of the great uncertainties, Finns should be prepared for power outages caused by possible electricity shortages this coming winter," Finnish grid operator Fingrid said today.

According to Fingrid, the Olkiluoto 3 nuclear power plant would compensate for the missing Russian imports.

"In practice, in the event of an electricity shortage, Fingrid will inform the local distribution network companies of the total amount of power to be disconnected from each distribution network company's area, and after this, power outages will be recycled as two-hour outages until the electricity shortage has ended," said Tuomas Rauhala, Senior Vice President, Power System Operation, at Fingrid.

Also in the Nordic region, Norway is considering limiting its electricity exports if levels at reservoirs for hydropower generation drop to critically low levels in a bid to prevent power shortages and further rises in energy bills domestically.

Last week, the other Nordic grid operators—Fingrid, Svenska Kraftnät of Sweden, and Energinet of Denmark—called on Norway to reconsider plans for limiting its exports.

"If export restrictions were to be allowed under the current European electricity regulation, we fear that such a step could inspire other countries to consider similar restrictions and thus causing a much bigger negative effect on both the Nordic and the European electricity markets," the operators said.

>>17437759

>This Winter

Belgian PM Warns "Next 5-10 Winters Will Be Difficult" As Energy Crisis Worsens

https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/belgian-pm-warns-next-5-10-winters-will-be-difficult-energy-crisis-worsens

Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo might have spilled the beans about the duration of Europe's energy crisis. He told reporters Monday, "the next 5 to 10 winters will be difficult."

"The development of the situation is very difficult throughout Europe," De Croo told Belgium broadcaster VRT.

"In a number of sectors, it is really difficult to deal with those high energy prices. We are monitoring this closely, but we must be transparent: the coming months will be difficult, the coming winters will be difficult," he said.

The prime minister's comments suggest replacing Russian natural gas imports could take years, exerting further economic doom on the region's economy in the form of energy hyperinflation.

Europe faces a historic energy crisis exacerbated by Russia's war in Ukraine (and Western sanctions that have backfired). The continent heavily relies on Russia for its energy needs, importing about 40% of NatGas. At just 20% capacity with risks of going to zero next month, Russian supplies via Gazprom's Nord Stream 1 have sent NatGas and power prices to record highs this week.

European NatGas prices soared to a record high of 277 euros per megawatt-hour on Monday, about 15 times the average summertime price. Leon Izbicki, a commodity analyst at Energy Aspects Ltd., told Bloomberg if NS1 flows come to a halt in September, prices could rise to 400 euros per megawatt-hour.

Bloomberg's commodities reporter Javier Blas tweeted a map of day-ahead electricity prices across Europe. He called the prices "eye-watering, with lots of countries setting record highs for today."

MAP OF THE DAY: Day-ahead electricity prices in Europe are eye-watering, with lots of countries setting record highs for today. Notable to see the Nordics close to €400 per MWh, and Germany at €600. Before 2020, anything above €75-100 was considered expensive| #EnergyCrisis pic.twitter.com/RyTrbJ4Mxl

— Javier Blas (@JavierBlas) August 23, 2022

The shift from Russian NatGas supplies has backfired for the 19-nation eurozone. Germany, Europe's largest economy, could be headed for a recession that will bring down the rest of the continent.

De Croo said Belgium and the eurozone must "support each other in these difficult times."

Europe's dark winter could be a yearly occurrence throughout this decade if the prime minister is right. The widely optimistic idea that the bloc could replace all Russian Natgas imports this year was a farce, and now European households must pay exorbitantly high power costs, forcing millions into energy poverty.

Even though Germany admitted that it was a terrible mistake to become so dependent on cheap Russian energy like a drug how long does it take for Berlin to go back to its dealer [Moscow] for resupplies and defect from the rest of Europe because it doesn't want to freeze to death this winter nor crash its economy.

Drought Conditions Now Affecting Two-Thirds Of US

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/drought-conditions-now-affecting-two-thirds-us

Human remains discovered at the shores of Lake Mead in May, July and August as its water levels are at historic lows are just the latest consequence of a prolonged drought gripping the United States. One of the bodies found was identified as a homicide victim who died around 40 or 50 years ago, spurring speculation that the person could have been a victim of mob crime that still was prevalent in nearby Las Vegas at that time.

As Statista's Katharina Buchholz notes, since late 2020, the United States has been experiencing unusually hot and dry weather. According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, extreme and exceptional drought affects the American West as well as Texas most, but stretches as far as Kansas, Nebraska, Montana and Massachusetts.

The extreme circumstances have spurred demand for water and cooling, leaving reservoirs emptier than usual. With the drought also comes a heightened risk of heat-induced medical emergencies and wildfires.

As of August 16, droughts of different levels of severity affect more than 66 percent of the area of the continental United States. The number has been above the 60-percent mark since October of 2020 with just two short breaks (82 out of 98 weeks).

Infographic: Drought Conditions Affect Two Thirds of U.S. | Statista

You will find more infographics at Statista

While it has risen this high before, it rarely stayed there for so long. During the drought of 2018, it exceeded the threshold for only five weeks. Between April 2012 and May 2013, droughts had affected more than 60 percent of the United States’ area for 60 weeks in a row and expanded to around 80 percent momentarily.

While fluctuating temperatures and very hot, very dry or very cold days are a normal phenomenon, these extreme weather events are expected to become more frequent and severe due to climate change. Scientist have connected the reoccuring drought in the Western U.S. to a changing climate, for example citing heatwaves that start earlier in the year and have become longer as well as stronger.

ECB Says Cash "Not Fit" For Digital Economy, Dismisses CBDC Privacy Concerns

https://www.zerohedge.com/crypto/ecb-says-cash-not-fit-digital-economy-dismisses-cbdc-privacy-concerns

In the digital economy, cash is no longer a useful tool, and a central bank digital currency (CBDC) is the “only solution” to continue the existing monetary system, according to a new paper from the European Central Bank (ECB).

The eurozone’s central bank recently published a paper titled, “The Economics of Central Bank Digital Currency.” Authors assessed the implications for the financial system and examined data privacy and digital payments.

Researchers concluded that a CBDC, like a digital euro, would be the “only solution” to facilitate a “smooth continuation” of the present monetary system. Despite widespread concerns that CBDCs would limit the credit supply and function as a disruptive force in the financial markets, the paper rejected these concerns as being unfounded.

Digital money is critical in a digital economy, the ECB noted. Since “cash is losing its appeal as efficient means of payment,” a CBDC is a necessary tool to install. Although the research identified drawbacks of instituting a uniform digital monetary system, such as the sluggish pace of settlements, market developments, and adoption, the paper noted that “a digital update of cash” is crucial to advancing “the two-layer system of public and private money.”

Ultimately, cash possesses “large economic costs without clear benefits,” so “it is by construction not ‘fit’ for the digital age.”

Digital money might generate privacy concerns, authors warned.

However, researchers say that there is a “privacy paradox”: consumers will emphasize an importance to privacy in surveys, but they will give away their personal data for free or in exchange for small rewards.

A woman holds euro banknotes in this photo taken on May 30, 2022. (Dado Ruvic/Reuters)

“From a public policy perspective, these observations warrant further scepticism concerning the ability of market forces to reach efficient levels of privacy protection,” the report noted.

The paper also rejected cryptocurrencies and stablecoins, calling them a “threat to monetary sovereignty.” It welcomed President Joe Biden’s digital asset working group to put together a regulatory framework for the crypto sector, as well as the myriad of other regulations considered worldwide.

“These proposals would bring new forms of digital money into the regulatory perimeter and help to address some of the major concerns related to monetary sovereignty and financial stability,” the paper stated.

p1

>>17437777

The Rise of CBDCs

Across the globe, many governments and central banks have been studying CBDCs as a potential successor or complement to physical money.

In January, for example, the Federal Reserve released a discussion paper titled, “Money and Payments: The U.S. Dollar in the Age of Digital Transformation.” It examined the pros and cons of a possible U.S. CBDC.

While speaking in front of Congress during his semiannual monetary policy report in June, Fed Chair Jerome Powell recommended that a digital dollar is “something we need to explore as a country” that “should not be a partisan thing.”

“It’s a very important potential financial innovation that will affect all Americans,” he said before the House Committee on Financial Services.

“Our plan is to work on both the policy side and the technological side in coming years and come to Congress with a recommendation at some point.”

Powell added that if the United States were to create a digital dollar, it would need to be issued by the federal government and not by a private institution.

“One question around CBDCs is do we want a private stablecoin to wind up being the digital dollar? I think the answer is no,” Powell said.

“If we’re going to have a digital dollar, it should be government-guaranteed money, not private money.”

Congress is requesting faster action on a digital dollar. A bipartisan group of members of Congress, led by Rep. French Hill (R-Ark.) and Rep. Maxine Waters (D-Calif.), introduced legislation this month ordering the Fed to speed up its work on a CBDC.

“With countries around the world competing to deploy digital versions of their own currencies, America can’t be left behind,” Waters said a statement in May before a hearing on the advantages of risks of CBDCs.

Last month, ECB President Christine Lagarde championed a digital euro, purporting that digitizing the official currency of 19 out of the 27 member states of the European Union can “achieve” stability and public access.

A digital euro would complement cash rather than replace it, according to Lagarde. She also pointed out that a CBDC would only be successful if it addressed the needs of consumers and businesses and ensured that privacy safeguards were established from the beginning.

This, co-wrote Lagarde in a blog post, makes certain that a digital euro “serves as an anchor for the whole payment system.”

US, Europe Take on the Digital Yuan?

But while the United States and Europe might be attempting to take the lead in such a critical issue in the global monetary system, market analysts note that advanced economies might be responding to China.

After seven years of intensive study, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) unleashed the digital yuan in 2021. The e-yuan is a CBDC that is trying to replace a portion of the cash presently in circulation, as fewer Chinese consumers use physical money. It is estimated that cash represented about one-quarter of point-of-sale transactions in 2020, down from nearly 75 percent in 2012.

Some aver that Beijing is looking to dismantle the global currency system, but officials say otherwise.

While speaking at a Shanghai forum in December 2020, former PBoC head Zhou Xiaochuan noted that technology is the main goal, not currency supremacy. However, Richard Turrin, author of “Cashless: China’s Digital Currency Revolution,” told CNBC in March that a digital yuan could challenge the greenback in international trade settlements in the next decade.

“Remember, China is the largest trading country, and you’re going to see digital yuan slowly supplant the dollar when buying things from China,” he said.

“If we go about five to 10 years out, yes, the digital yuan can play a significant role in reducing the dollar’s usage in international trade.”

The yuan has become one of the most popular currencies in cross-border transactions in 2021, representing 2.7 percent of global payments, the highest level in six years, January statistics from the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunications (SWIFT) show. The U.S. dollar accounted for more than 40 percent of international transactions.

Any attempt to dethrone the U.S. dollar as the chief international reserve currency would take time. According to the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) Currency Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves (COFER) data, dollars accounted for nearly 60 percent of reserves in the first quarter of 2022. The yuan represented less than 3 percent.

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https://pagesix.com/2022/08/24/maria-shriver-looks-unrecognizable-in-santa-monica/

Maria Shriver looks unrecognizable while visiting new home in Santa Monica

>>17437811

https://twitter.com/RepMTG/status/1562530679442837504

Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene🇺🇸

@RepMTG

Hear the full story of what happened at my home late last night…

Circle K Clerk Hit in Face With Brick During Robbery: Cops

we ain't seen nothing yet…

>>17437771

US drought: Low water levels in rivers and lakes spark widespread fears

>>17437849

Disruption in water cycle threatens the EarthDW News

>>17437858

Historic drought is threatening Italy’s water supplyDW News

>>17437870

Droughts and floods: How to save the world's water supplyDW News

>>17437884

China faces severe drought amid a record-breaking heatwave– BBC News

>>17437903

China issues drought alert amid extreme heatwaveANC

Green Party Official Tells Germans to ‘Stop Taking Showers’ to Solve Energy Crisis

https://www.dailyfetched.com/green-party-official-tells-germans-to-stop-taking-showers-to-solve-energy-crisis/

A top Green Party official has suggested that Germans use washcloths instead of taking showers to solve the country’s looming energy crisis.

Baden-Württemberg’s Prime Minister Winfried Kretschmann also said citizens should buy expensive eco-heating systems, which are unaffordable for the average person.

The comments were made in response to the energy crisis as gas shortages loom amid the ongoing war in Ukraine.

“Even the washcloth is a useful invention,” the Green politician told Südwest-Presse.

Kretschmann boasted about his eco-credentials, “I have an electric car, I have a huge photovoltaic system on the roof.”

The pellet heating system used by the Green Party official costs anything up to €21,000 – a totally unrealistic figure for struggling Germans.

But the actual environmental cost of Kretschmann’s ‘solution’ was explained by Remix News.

“Wired magazine reports that these devices rely primarily on wood pellets sourced from forests in the southeastern United States. They are then shipped halfway around the world to individuals like Kretschmann despite many scientists arguing that these pellets are just as polluting as coal.”

“Although they come from a renewable resource, forests are cut down across the U.S. to make this resource, and according to Greenpeace, the practice destroys biodiversity and ruins entire ecosystems. Scientists estimate it takes between 44 to over 100 years for these forests to grow back, and for those worried about climate change, they say this destruction of natural forests will cost the planet immeasurably.”

Kretschmann’s so-called advice received backlash on Twitter, as the hashtag #Waschlappen (German for “washcloth”) began trending.

“Our country faces an energy crisis that threatens the prosperity of millions of people! And what is the answer of the green father Kretschmann? Don’t shower every day: ‘The #Waschlappen is also a useful invention.’ What kind of people actually govern Germany?” asked Gerhard Papke, the president of the German-Hungarian Society.

Unser Land steht vor einer Energiekrise, die den Wohlstand von Millionen Menschen bedroht! Und wie lautet die Antwort des Grünen-Übervaters #Kretschmann? Nicht jeden Tag duschen: „Auch der #Waschlappen ist eine brauchbare Erfindung“. Was für Leute regieren eigentlich Deutschland?

— Gerhard Papke (@PapkeGerhard) August 19, 2022

The Daily Fetched previously reported on Germany’s impending energy crisis:

Germany’s biggest cities are preparing for a massive energy crisis this winter as the country prepares to limit heat, shut off warm water and lighting.

The German city of Hanover is now scrambling to reduce its energy consumption by 15 percent.

The German government will prevent Hanover’s municipal buildings from using heating that exceeds a temperature of 68F. The city has also banned mobile air conditioning units and fan heaters as the energy crisis looms.

The city has also banned mobile air conditioning units and fan heaters as the energy crisis looms.

The city’s residents must also adapt by taking cold showers at city-run facilities.

Hanover will also shut off hot water in public buildings, swimming pools, and gyms.

Meanwhile, the country is facing a complete collapse of its power grid due to the soaring demand for electric heaters.

Meanwhile, the country is facing a complete collapse of its power grid due to the soaring demand for electric heaters.

As we reported earlier this month:

Germans are now panic buying electric heaters after firewood supplies and stoves sold out, a desperate backup option to survive the plummeting winter temperatures.

But according to the boss of the Stadtwerke Wiesbaden Netz utility company, Peter Lautz, the sheer amount of citizens using electric heaters would put enormous strain on the country’s electricity grid.

Electric heaters use between 1,000 and 3,000 watts of energy, so when all are plugged in simultaneously, it could cause a massive overload and cause the grid to collapse.

“If everyone switched on a fan heater at home, it would mean that we would have to almost double the existing network structure on every street,” said Lautz.

>>17438094