Anonymous ID: dff406 Sept. 25, 2022, 8:19 p.m. No.17582256   🗄️.is 🔗kun   >>2261 >>2306

https://sharylattkisson.com/2022/09/newest-abc-news-wash-post-poll-on-midterms-could-have-real-meaning/

The fact that the liberal-leaning news outlets that sponsored the poll, ABC News and The Washington Post, actually approved a headline that’s overtly negative for Biden and Democrats suggests matters may be even worse than advertised for liberal causes.

 

A “clear majority” of Democrats and Democrat-leaning Independents (56%) say Biden should not be the presidential nominee in 2024.

 

Since 1946, “when a president’s approval has been less than 50 percent – as Biden’s is by a considerable margin now – his party has lost an average of 37 seats," says the poll analysis.

 

On the other hand, Republicans and Republican-leaning Independents favor Trump as their nominee over any other Republican, by a slim margin: 47%-46%.

Biden job performance among Americans

 

39% approve (all time low for Biden in this poll)

 

53% disapprove

Biden on the economy

 

36% approve (all time low for Biden in this poll)

 

57% disapprove

 

74% say the economy is in bad shape (up from 58% just after Biden took office)

Preference of Likely Voters in Midterms

 

51% favor Republicans

 

46% favor Democrats

Preference among Registered Voters in Trump v. Biden Rematch

 

48% favor Trump

 

46% favor Biden

 

Among Registered Voters, Trump edges out Biden in a rematch (48%- 46%), which doesn't seem to make much sense when paired with the poll’s finding that 52% of Americans say Trump should be charged with a crime. (As a side note, one poll respondent says the poll results on this Trump crime question do not reflect the choice he was given and selected. More on that later.)

 

Abortion is fifth on the list of issues impacting “propensity to vote.”

 

31% say Democrats are too permissive on abortion

 

50% say Republicans are too restrictive on abortion

Supreme Court ruling on abortion being a matter for the states to decide:

 

29% support it

 

64% oppose it

 

Supporters of Supreme Court ruling are more apt to say voting is more important to them than in previous Midterms.

“Certain to vote” in Midterms

 

76% of those who support Supreme Court abortion ruling

 

70% of those who oppose Supreme Court abortion ruling

Top issue impacting votes for Congress

 

84% Economy

 

77% Education

 

76% Inflation

 

69% Crime

 

62% Abortion

 

61% Immigration

 

50% Climate Change

 

Republicans lead Democrats by 16 points on the economy, 19 points on inflation, and 14 points on crime (the largest margin since 1991). Republicans lead Democrats on crime by 34 points among Independents.

 

Democrats beat Republicans by 23 points on climate change; 20 points on abortion; and 6 points on education.

 

Trust on handling immigration (likely referring to illegal immigration), is divided 50-50 between Democrats and Republicans.

 

More broadly, Americans are even, 42-42 percent, on which party they trust more to cope with the main problems the country faces. This is a high for Republicans since at least 2006, and a net loss for Democrats who typically had a 5 point lead on this question since 1982). ..

Anonymous ID: dff406 Sept. 25, 2022, 8:20 p.m. No.17582261   🗄️.is 🔗kun   >>2306

>>17582256

In 2018: 55%-39% preferred Democrat-controlled Congress as check on Trump

 

Today: 48%-45% prefer a Republican-controlled Congress as a check on Biden

Among “Likely Voters” today

 

51%-46% prefer a Republican controlled Congess as a check on Biden

Among Registered Voters in competitive (close) Congressional districts

 

55% favor Republicans (mirroring the 24 lead for Republicans in solid GOP districts)

 

34% favor Democrats

"Certain to Vote" in Midterms

 

72% of Whites

 

55% of Blacks

 

46% of Hispanics

 

Democrats’ lead among Blacks has shrunk 18 points from at least a 79 point margin in the last four Midterm exit polls to 61 points.

 

Same with Hispanics: the Democrats' lead is down from 40 a point margin in 2018.

 

In 2019 exit poll, Registered Voters with no college degree split their votes evenly between Democrats and Republicans. But today, Republican candidates have an 11 point advantage in this group.

 

Women under age 40 support the Democratic candidate in their district by 19 points. That’s way down from 43 points in the 2018 exit poll.

 

Even in the Democrat heavy sample…

Suburban women

 

47% favor Republicans

 

44% favor Democrats

Independent women

 

+5 for Republicans over Democrats

Independent men

 

+3 for Republicans over Democrats

Overall Independents

 

47% for Republicans

 

42% for Democrats

 

Overall, Independents voted for Democrats by 12 points in 2018; Republicans by 14 points in 2014 (when the GOP won 13 House seats) and by 19 points in 2010 (when the GOP won 63 seats).

Total Polling Sample (1,006 people)

 

28% Democrats (281.68)

 

24% Republicans (241.44)

 

41% Independents (412.46)

Registered Voters Sample (908 people among the 1,006)

 

27% Democrats (245.16)

 

26% Republicans (236.08)

 

40% Independents (363.2)

 

Now, regarding this January 6th question in the poll and the results:

 

  1. The U.S. Justice Department is currently investigating Donald Trump on issues including his fundraising, his handling of classified materials and his actions related to the storming of the U.S. Capitol last January. Given what you’ve heard or read, do you think Trump should or should not be charged with a crime in any of these matters?

 

Should 52%

 

Should not 39%

 

No opinion 10%

 

According to one polling respondent, the pollster actually offered a different choice of answer not listed in the results: “Don’t know enough yet.” He says he was not given the option of “No opinion."

 

”If I had been given only [‘should’ or ‘should not’ as choices], I would have said Trump should NOT be charged. I think [the unlisted choice given] may have skewed an important question. If they spun that to 'no opinion' I think that could be misleading."

 

Again, I contacted the producer of the survey, Langer Research Associates, but haven’t heard back from them.