tyb
>>17739367, >>17739557, >>17739953 pb Nancy departed JBA stopped at Shannon and headed for Sharm El-Sheik
PF Med-Europe-Gulf Activity:BOXER40 C-40CNancyarrived at Sharm El-Sheik, Egypt about 9hrs ago and currently have SPAR12 C-40 departed from same heading to Cyprus (purple dot-these ACs based out of Scott AFB, IL and taking a side trip to the 'bank') Czech AF CEF05B A319 west from Tblisi, Georgia after 24h on ground (Czechs and Hungarians have made several trips here recently) Pakiland AF PAAF584 Global Explorer switched on at Sheik Isa Navy Base-Bahrain arrived from Lahore on 1107, 11-9355 E-11A done over it's customary position just SE of Syrian border and back to Riyadh, RG01 and 02 C-2 Greyhounds from the USS Shrub (CNV-77 and red dot) heading back to Sigonella AB, Sicily, Belgian AF BAF Falcon 7X back to Brussels from Rome depart and about 5h 30m stop (Stoltenenberg was in Rome to visit Meloni today but he usually on a SPARXX callsign so this prolly a support AC for that visit) and she has joined the "support for NATO in Ukraine" you shouldn't be surprised one bit, Swedish AF SVF637 G5 NFM Billstromfrom Berlin-8h on ground, Swiss AF SUI-033departing Madrid-Torrejon AB after about 40m on ground at stop at London RAF Northolt for 5h and SUI521 Cl-600 on ground at Dresden from Bern depart
Potato leaves for Egypt at 9:45 PM EST
https://factba.se/biden/calendar
Nancy Pelosi mobbed by cameras at Cop27 as midterms hang in balance
https://www.independent.co.uk/climate-change/news/nancy-pelosi-cop27-midterms-climate-b2222222.html
Belgian AF flight connected to dis
Meloni tells NATO it can count on Italy in Ukraine
https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-nato-jens-stoltenberg-europe-government-and-politics-8ab8a709a046da63a5a43a878ee0da1b
Swedish AF flight this
Sweden stresses need for more talks with TĂĽrkiye on NATO membership
BERLIN-Sweden on Thursday highlighted the need for more talks with TĂĽrkiye on its NATO membership bid.
https://www.aa.com.tr/en/politics/sweden-stresses-need-for-more-talks-with-turkiye-on-nato-membership/2734700
Czech AF flight for this
Tbilisi Hosts Forum “Nuclear and Radiological Security of Black Sea Region in Conditions of New Threats and Changing Environment”
https://georgiatoday.ge/forum-nuclear-and-radiological-security-of-black-sea-region-in-conditions-of-new-threats-and-changing-environment-takes-place-in-tbilisi/
SAM446 USAF G5 inbound to JBA from Shannon refuel-departed Warsaw earlier todayUS Amb.to U.N. Linda Thomas-Greenfieldarrived at Tirana, Albania on 1106 then to Rzsezow Airport Poland on 1107 for about 40m and west to Krakow 1109 back to Rzsezow for 40m and then to Warsaw
US official meets Ukrainian children at UNICEF hub in Warsaw
https://www.usnews.com/news/us/articles/2022-11-09/us-official-meets-ukrainian-children-at-unicef-hub-in-warsaw
Ambassador Linda Thomas-Greenfield and Albanian UN Ambassador Ferit Hoxha’s Interview with Blendi Fevziu of TV Klan Albania
https://usun.usmission.gov/ambassador-linda-thomas-greenfield-and-albanian-un-ambassador-ferit-hoxhas-interview-with-blendi-fevziu-of-tv-klan-albania/
"Encouraging" CPI Inflation Report ~~May~~ guarantees (FIFY) An Earlier Fed ~~Pause~~ Pivot to 50bp-thus proving they were never serious itfp
The November Consumer Price Index (CPI) Report for the month of October offered signs that U.S. inflation may be coming down. Prices increased 0.4% month-on-month, and prices less food and energy rose 0.3%. These were low enough to cause the year-over-year inflation rate rate to fall to 7.7%. This is just one month of price data, but contained a lot of hints that suggest U.S. inflation may be declining, as more prices are dropping on a monthly basis in absolute terms. Still, we have some way to go before inflation hits the Fed’s 2% goal. A broader set of prices are now falling, these include used cars, clothing and medical services. Certain energy-related costs fell too, though those series are more volatile. At a more granular level, certain home furnishings and appliances fell in price as well as various food items (discussed below). These falling prices can help offset those prices that are still rising and help bring inflation down. Previously most prices were rising in unison. Housing and food carry a large weight in the CPI index. Housing costs continue to rise. In fact, the pace of increase accelerated in the November report as was the largest monthly rise since November 1990. That is at odds with the softness we’re seeing in the U.S. housing market. The reason for this is the statistical details of how the CPI series is calculated, making it more of a lagging indicator of house prices over recent months. (Owner Equivalent Rent lags by 5 months for this report so won't see that for a while-and as predicted the 'green light' given for 50bp raise at next meetingcap #2 and THAT has nuffin to do with CPI it's ALL about $166T in FOREX and Interest Rate sensitive derivatives and it's so retarded that the GDPNOW was raised an additional 0.4% to 4% from 3.6% yesterday-cap #3) Food prices may be starting to ease. This is welcome news as rising food prices hit those on lower incomes disproportionately. Food costs are also a large part of the CPI calculation. Food prices have risen at an almost 11% annual rate over the past 12 months. However, in the November report the increase was 0.6% month-on-month, implying a 7.4% annualized increase.
Food prices are still rising sharply in aggregate, but perhaps these increases are slowing. Animal protein, eggs, cereal and beverage costs are still generally rising. However, in a welcome change, fresh fruits and vegetables as well as milk are now falling in price. So the general picture is that inflation is still very high and well above the Fed’s target. However, if the trends in today’s report hold we are starting to see more and more prices declining in absolute terms, offsetting those that are still rising in price.
Also, a large portion of rising prices is due to housing costs given their large weight in the CPI. Here we can be somewhat confident that current softness in housing should ultimately translate to the CPI series at some point in the coming months.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/simonmoore/2022/11/10/encouraging-cpi-inflation-report-may-signal-an-earlier-fed-pause/
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html
Latest estimate: 4.0 percent — November 9, 2022
The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2022 is 4.0 percent on November 9, up from 3.6 percent on November 3. After last week's employment situation report from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics and this morning's wholesale trade report from the US Census Bureau, the nowcasts of fourth-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and fourth-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth increased from 4.0 percent and 0.7 percent, respectively, to 4.2 percent and 2.1 percent, respectively.
https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow
FILTH46RC-135 Rivet joint north of Venezuela trackin' and from Offutt AFB
U.S. Treasury Finds No Currency Manipulation by Major Trading Partners
The U.S. Treasury Department on Thursday said no major U.S. trading partner manipulated its exchange rates to gain unfair competitive advantage through June 2022, but said it would stay in close touch with Switzerland on its currency practices. The bulk of interventions seen were aimed at strengthening currencies, not weakening them, Treasury said in a semi-annual report, while acknowledging that emerging and developing economies might need a range of approaches - including intervention - to respond to current global economic conditions. A senior Treasury official told reporters that the dollar's strength against other currencies could begin to ease as monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve peaked and other central banks caught up. "The global economy was already dealing with supply and demand imbalances caused by COVID-19 prior to Russia's illegal war against Ukraine, which has increased food, fertilizer, and energy prices - further elevating global inflation and increasing food insecurity," Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said in a statement, adding that countries' responses could affect currencies. "Treasury is cognizant that a range of approaches by developing and emerging economies to global economic headwinds may be warranted in certain circumstances," she added.
The report noted that Switzerland once again exceeded U.S. thresholds for possible currency manipulation under a 2015 U.S. trade law, but refrained from branding it - or any other country - a currency manipulator. Treasury said it would continue enhanced analysis of Switzerland's macroeconomic and exchange rate policies, while setting forth an enhanced bilateral engagement that began in early 2021 to discuss Swiss policy options for tackling external imbalances. Treasury said seven economies were on its "monitoring list" - China, Japan, Korea, Germany, Malaysia, Singapore, and Taiwan. Vietnam was removed from the list, it said, adding that it remained satisfied with progress made by the Asian country in addressing U.S. concerns about its currency practices. India, Italy, Mexico and Thailand were also removed from the list, Treasury said.
The Treasury report again called out China for its failure to publish foreign exchange intervention and the broader lack of transparency around key features of its exchange-rate mechanism. A senior Treasury official said efforts by the U.S. Treasury and the International Monetary Fund had failed to make any headway with Beijing on the issue so far.
Treasury noted that Japan had intervened in the foreign exchange market to stem the pace of depreciation in the yen, its first such move since 1998, and underscored its believe that such actions should be taken only rarely.
https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2022-11-10/u-s-treasury-finds-no-currency-manipulation-sees-dollar-strength-easing
Treasury Releases Report on Macroeconomic and Foreign Exchange Policies of Major Trading Partners of the United States
https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy1094
https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/desk-operations/central-bank-liquidity-swap-operations