Mortgage Market Upheaval Sparks $17 Billion in Paper Losses for US Banks
Higher interest rates helped Wells Fargo & Co. land more than $3 billion in profit in the third quarter. From a capital perspective, they also wiped out nearly three-quarters of that.
While rising rates buoy revenue for the country’s largest banks, in the short term they also force them to write down the value of assets they hold on their balance sheet, exacerbating a capital squeeze that’s prompted most of them to halt buybacks. At Wells Fargo, it was an additional $2.4 billion in unrealized losses on mortgage-backed securities (MBS) and other bonds that weighed on shareholder equity in the third quarter. Wells Fargo’s three biggest rivals took a similar hit. On mortgage-backed securities alone, the four banks’ unrealized losses have climbed to $17 billion, based on company filings. “When it comes to managing capital, we should be extremely conscious of what the risks are that are around us,” Wells Fargo Chief Executive Officer Charlie Scharf warned last month, citing swings in the value of the bank’s investment portfolio as well as geopolitical risks. “Those are all reasons, given where we sit today, to be more conservative on capital rather than less conservative.”
The unrealized losses don’t appear on the firms’ income statement, but under accounting rules they still end up hitting the banks’ balance sheets, affecting so-called accumulated other comprehensive income, or AOCI. There, the country’s four largest banks JPMorgan Chase & Co., Citigroup Inc., Bank of America Corp. and Wells Fargo reported a $16 billion drop in AOCI for the third quarter, to negative $102 billion, company filings show. Because swings in AOCI affect shareholder equity, the drop in AOCI has weighed on key capital ratios. The writedowns come at a tough time for banks, which are trying to hoard capital to meet new, higher regulatory requirements. They’re just one of a bevy of headwinds weighing on capital ratios. Others include new accounting rules that say banks must set aside even more in reserves as a result of rising inflation that’s threatening the overall economic outlook. And with markets on edge over the Federal Reserve’s rate hikes, banks have also been battling back an increase in risk-weighted assets, which are used to determine minimum capital levels. Still, the country’s four biggest banks are sitting on $157 billion of mortgage-backed securities they’ve marked as available for sale. Paper losses on those assets have soared in recent quarters, hindering efforts to boost capital.
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/mortgage-market-upheaval-sparks-17-billion-in-paper-losses-for-us-banks-1.1847927
(ProTip: The NYFRB has not bought (officially via the reporting functions at least) any MBS since September 14th 2022 and that was $387m of 30 year GinnieMAE against a submission of $2.66B and $754m of Freddie/Fannie on 0912 against a submission of $2.68BCap #2 and teh avg 30y fixed was just aropund 3% at time)
https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/desk-operations/ambs
*cap#3-this is a play on acronyms MbS on MBS-this is NOT a suggestion that he is connected to any of this