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Stochastic Terrorism: the game begins:
The first appearance of anything remotely resembling the phrase “Stochastic Terrorism” can be found in a 2002 paper by Gordon Woo, titled “Quantitative Terrorism Risk Assessment” published in the Journal of Risk Finance. The article was about the insurance market trying to factor in the cost of acts of terrorism that are measured to occur at a certain rate over time into their policies.
From the abstract
Traditionally, terrorism risk has been priced based exclusively on the relationship between supply and demand in the insurance market, with no basis in actuarial principles. This article discusses how the tragic events of September 11, 2001, have irrevocably changed the market for terrorism insurance, since terrorism has become a U.S. catastrophe risk. The author states that since insurers seek to quantify risk distributed over several months (versus a period of only a few days), quantitative assessment of terrorism risk may be achievable.
But the phrase “Stochastic Terrorism,” as it is being used today was actually first coined by an anonymous blogger, ‘G2geek’, on the progressive site the dailykos, the same dailykos owned by Markos Moulitsas, on Monday January 10, 2011, in response to the Giffords shooting.
Stochastic terrorism is the use of mass communications to stir up random lone wolves to carry out violent or terrorist acts that are statistically predictable but individually unpredictable.
This is what occurs when Bin Laden releases a video that stirs random extremists halfway around the globe to commit a bombing or shooting.
This is also the term for what Beck, O'Reilly, Hannity, and others do. And this is what led directly and predictably to a number of cases of ideologically-motivated murder similar to the Tucson shootings.
The first appearance of the phrase anywhere in the news was in the letters to the editor on page 16 of The Columbian Thursday, January 27, 2011.
Michael T. Carver of Ridgefield referenced the definition as being from “epluribusmedia.net.” The reference is a blog post written on January 13th, 2011 which itself was referencing the DailyKos
A Look at "Stochastic Terrorism: Triggering the Shooters" (from DailyKos)
Submitted by MichaelCollins on January 13, 2011
"The stochastic terrorist is the person who uses mass media to broadcast memes that incite unstable people to commit violent acts." G2geek, January 10, 2011
Daily Kos diarist G2geek published an essay on January 10 that deserves attention and further analysis. He argued that rash media figures activate lone wolf types through "emotional rhetoric."
https://drrollergator.substack.com/p/stochastic-terrorism-a-game-of-rhetorical