zzzzzz
Fed Fight: Biden's BLS Lashes Out At Philly Fed Over Million-Job Revision
Nearly two weeks ago the Philadelphia Federal Reserve wrote that the Biden administration had overstated US job growth by at least 1.1 million - directly implying that the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) had fabricated US payroll data to provide political talking points. The BLS had previously reported that the US economy added approximately 1,047,000 new jobs in Q2, 2022 - a figure the Biden administration used extensively to suggest they were successfully navigating the economic crisis. The Philly Fed's revision, however, indicated that the actual number of jobs added was more like 10,500. The report also suggested that the BLS had understated unemployment figures in 29 states and D.C. by 'significant margins,' which would mean Job growth was basically flat during that period.
Now, the BLS is on the war-path suggesting that the Philly Fed is using 'lower quality' data.
"BLS does not believe that the monthly CES data dramatically overestimated employment growth, though all survey data contain error and revisions are a necessary part of the statistical estimation process to ensure accuracy," a spokesperson told Just the News.
Here's where it gets spicy; "In the past, other Regional Federal Reserve Banks have conducted similar research using various methodologies. However, BLS has determined, following years of research and engagement with the Federal Reserve Banks and data users that this general approach resulted in lower quality data." "BLS employment data from the Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey are widely recognized as a key indicator of labor market performance, in large part because of the consistent, transparent methods used to produce timely and accurate statistics," the BLS continued. "Once a year, BLS revises the official monthly estimates by benchmarking to BLS quarterly administrative data (the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, or QCEW) that is available on a 5-month lag. "Historically, CES estimates of national employment are extremely reliable; last year, which included the effects of the pandemic on labor markets, the revision was only -7,000 or less than 0.05 percent. Using a simple methodology and a series of assumptions, the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank benchmarked to a less complete version of the QCEW data than is available to BLS."
The BLS went on to highlight the Philadelphia Fed's own acknowledgement of the limitations of the data to which it had access. "The Philadelphia Fed research attempts to estimate the size of the benchmark for national and state employment changes from March to June 2022, which covers a slightly different time span than the BLS preliminary revisions," the bureau explained. "Their methodology documentation includes the statement: 'Our early benchmark process does not attempt to be as comprehensive as the BLS process as we do not have access to all the data that the BLS uses.' BLS will release revised benchmarked national data on February 3, 2023, and state data on March 13, 2023." -Just the News
The Fed, meanwhile, says it uses "more comprehensive, accurate job estimates released by the BLS as part of its Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages program," vs the BLS's monthly data. In short, the BLS will drastically revise all of its data some time in 2023 (and 2024 according to Steve Liesman) at which point nobody will care what happened in Q2, 2022.
https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/fed-fight-bidens-bls-lashes-out-philly-fed-over-million-job-revision
Patrick T. Harker-Patrick T. Harker took office on July 1, 2015, as the 11th president and chief executive officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. He was reappointed for his second five-year term effective March 1, 2021. In this role, Harker participates on the Federal Open Market Committee, which formulates the nation’s monetary policy.
https://www.philadelphiafed.org/our-people/patrick-t-harker
He votes on rates-on FOMC- but serial hopium addict at the Atlanta Fed Kangzzz Bostic doesn't and he just revised his GDPNOW forecast from 2.7% to 3.7% last Thursday so NO recession according to that 'tard
https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow
DERP!
from Dec 3rd '22
Nearly 1 million more jobs were created this year than the government first estimated
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/12/03/nearly-1-million-more-jobs-were-created-this-year-than-the-government-first-estimated.html
I'll take "This was FDR's first major action upon taking office in 1933 for $1000…Alex
What is Executive Order 6102?
The transition from Hoover to Roosevelt (felt) was massive deflation
And it was a misnomer that they confiscated-peeps were paid ($20.67/oz) but it was very quickly revalued upwards a year later to $35 with Gold Reserve Act of 1934) and they relied on the citizens 'patriotism' i.e psy-op'd out of it's Au holdings cause the Gubmint went bankrupt (again)
That bankruptcy was the whole reason for the E.O. 6102
https://www.usmoneyreserve.com/news/executive-insights/did-fdr-confiscate-americans-gold-in-1933/
chek'em