Draft: Belarus?
https://www.newsweek.com/belarus-russia-ukraine-enlistment-office-lukashenko-1771266
Belarus Sign Calls For 'All Male Citizens' To Attend Enlistment Office
A video of an electronic announcement at a bus terminal in Belarus calling for males of military age to go to an enlistment center has led to speculation over whether mobilization could take place in the country whose leader is Vladimir Putin's close ally.
The appeal appears on digital signage hanging on the first-floor balcony of the waiting room at the transport hub in the city of Barysau (Barysaw), located in the Minsk region, around 45 miles northeast of the capital city.
The digital text in Russian rolling across the screen says, "all male citizens from 18 to 60 years old must come to an enlistment office or village executive committee to clarify their data."
The clip, which as of Wednesday afternoon had received over 157,000 views, was tweeted by Hanna Liubakova, a journalist from Minsk and a non-resident fellow at the Atlantic Council think tank, who added the message, "What on earth is that?"
Twitter user MarqS, who tweets about Ukraine to more than 100,000 followers, wrote in a thread under the video that the call could be linked to ongoing military exercises in Belarus.
"Then again, many think (general) mobilization will start in Russia by tomorrow, maybe in Belarus too?" MarqS added. Other Twitter users also expressed concern that it could signal a mobilization of the Belarusian population.
"Hope the people have the strength to stand up against Lukashenko," wrote one user, amid concerns about what role the country's leader, Alexander Lukashenko, might play in the invasion of Ukraine by his ally, Russian President Vladimir Putin.
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Belarus has been used a staging post for Russia's invasion of Ukraine although so far Lukashenko has avoided more direct Belarusian involvement in the war.
Tensions rose again last week, however, when Belarus blamed Ukraine for a downed missile on its border, suggesting that the incident could be a provocation by Ukraine's armed forces.
Although Belarusian authorities announced that there were no plans for mobilization, the process of military eligibility check-ups in the country began in October 2022, Liubakova told Newsweek. This entailed Belarusian men being summoned to military registration and enlistment offices via letters or phone calls.
"The announcement at a bus station is new yet it looks like another way of dragging people to enlistment offices," Liubakova said.
The Belarusian Defense Ministry said in October that an annual check of the credentials of those liable for military service would be completed by the end of the year but that no mobilization events would be held.
Liubakova said that in December, "propaganda and various ads appeared with posters and videos calling for men to turn up to enlistment offices for the checkups," which suggested the process had been extended.
"It can be interpreted as potential preparation for future mobilization," Liubakova told Newsweek, "However, today there are no signs of the beginning of real mobilization in Belarus, although we can't exclude such a scenario."
"For the regimes in Belarus and Russia, the deployment of unmotivated Belarusian troops could mean instability in the country."
There is a lot of anti-Western propaganda in Belarus, whose regime is seeking to push a narrative that there are NATO troops on its border ready to invade, Liubakova said. "That's why the regime is checking people's data—as they claim."
Putin has deployed military equipment and troops to Belarus and Lukashenko is dependent on his ally for his political survival, especially after a disputed election in 2020 condemned internationally as rigged.
Despite the presidents' symbiotic relationship, Franak Viačorka, chief political adviser to Belarusian opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, told Newsweek in December the chance of direct Belarusian participation in the war in the short term was "very low."
However, Viačorka said that Lukashenko would still provide airfields, territory intelligence and other support for his only ally. Newsweek has contacted the Belarusian Foreign Ministry for comment.