tybs
good morning
PlaneFag CONUS Activity:
SAM121 C-40B NE from JBA and on ground at New Castle Cty Airport to pick up Potato-who was up 'early' and then going to Baltimore, MD for 'muh infrastructure' and bootyjuice attends and one hour of "work" today-see cap #2 with BANKR30 KC-135 tanker on 'at Delaware' duty
12:50 PM EST departs New Castle, Delaware en route Baltimore, Maryland
1:25 PM arrives in Baltimore, Maryland
2:45 PM discusses how Bipartisan Infrastructure Law funding will replace the 150- year old Baltimore and Potomac Tunnel; The Secretary of Transportation attends
3:45 PM departs Baltimore, Maryland en route the White House
4:05 PM arrives at the White House
https://factba.se/biden/calendar
SAM059 G5 west from JBA
>>18248190, >>18250591, >>18250690 pb
TITAN25 E-4B NightwatchSec. of Defense Austin(and goes to Manila after this) on ground at Osan AB, Seoul with SAM173 C-40B on ground at Yokota AB, Japan
US Defense Officials Not Losing Sight of China, North Korea
https://www.voanews.com/a/us-defense-officials-not-losing-sight-of-china-north-korea/6939544.html
Economic Schedule for Week of January 29, 2023
The key reports scheduled for this week are the January employment report and November Case-Shiller house prices.
Other key indicators include January ISM manufacturing and services surveys, and January vehicle sales. The FOMC meets this week, and the FOMC is expected to announce a 25 bp hike in the Fed Funds rate-(cap#2 and been pegged at 25bp ever since the last meeting and it now shows a slight chance of 50bp but @1.9% (despite the rhetoric from the different FED heads–they do this probably one or two moar times then-barring a created 'crisis'-that they love to do-start to back these off-cuz the EU is paying 4.58% on it's EURO/$ swaps and they can't have that for too long and the derivative(s) shit pile is the real reason for backing off when they finally do…not fake inflation #s).
-
Monday, January 30th -
10:30 AM: Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for January. This is the last of the regional Fed manufacturing surveys for January.
-
Tuesday, January 31st -
9:00 AM: FHFA House Price Index for November. This was originally a GSE only repeat sales, however there is also an expanded index.
9:00 AM ET: S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for November.
The consensus is for a 6.9% year-over-year increase in the Comp 20 index.
9:45 AM: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for January. The consensus is for a reading of 44.9, down from 45.1 in December.
10:00 AM: The Q4 Housing Vacancies and Homeownership report from the Census Bureau.
-
Wednesday, February 1st -
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.
(which may show a slight increase as people think the worst is over)
8:15 AM: The ADP Employment Report for January. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 170,000 payroll jobs added in January, down from 235,000 added in December.
10:00 AM: Construction Spending for December. The consensus is for a 0.1% decrease in construction spending.
10:00 AM ET: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for December from the BLS.
Job openings decreased in November to 10.458 million from 10.512 million in October
10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for January. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 48.0, down from 48.4 in December.
2:00 PM: FOMC Meeting Announcement. The FOMC is expected to announce a 25 bp hike in the Fed Funds rate.
2:30 PM: Fed Chair Jerome Powell holds a press briefing following the FOMC announcement. (and be careful here if you are short as they love to sky the markets on FED days based on nuffin but statements from 'Jerry and crew')
All day: Light vehicle sales for January. The consensus is for light vehicle sales to be 14.3 million SAAR in January, up from 13.3 million in December (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate). (should be a disaster that-however it IS seasonally adjusted so may not show a complete meltdown….yet)
The next GDPNow update is Wednesday, February 1
https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow
Still hasn't fixed the chart to show that last 2 "adjustments"
-
Thursday, February 2nd -
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 200 thousand initial claims, up from 186 thousand last week.
-
Friday, February 3rd -
8:30 AM: Employment Report for December. The consensus is for 185,000 jobs added, and for the unemployment rate to increase to 3.6%.
The pandemic employment recession was by far the worst recession since WWII in percentage terms. However, as of August 2022, the total number of jobs had returned and are now 1.24 million above pre-pandemic levels.
10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for January. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 50.3, up from 49.6 in December. (of course it's projected to be above 50-expansion..anything below 50 is contraction)
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2023/01/schedule-for-week-of-january-29-2023.html
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html
Russia’s Oil Cargoes Surge With Pipe Down and Fuel Ban at Hand
Russia’s seaborne oil flows look as if they are moving higher. Two possible explanations: the nation is pushing more cargoes onto the water after Germany and Poland all but halted piped imports, and Moscow has one eye on an impending ban on fuel purchases by the European Union.Russia's crude exports rebounded in the seven days to Jan. 27, recovering most of the previous week’s loss. Aggregate volumes rose by 480,000 barrels a day, or 16%, to 3.6 million in the week. Shipments from Baltic and Pacific ports were both up by 310,000 barrels a day from the previous week, with the increase partly offset by a decline in volumes from the Arctic.Russia has already lost its key European market for crude and is about to do the same for refined products — an EU import ban is due to come into force on Feb. 5. Like the earlier embargo on crude, it will be accompanied by a price cap mechanism, intended to allow flows to continue to non-European buyers as long as cargoes are purchased below yet-to-be agreed prices. Some analysts question whether Russia will be able to find buyers for the fuel cargoes Europe doesn’t take, creating questions about where that would leave the nation’s refining industry.
The week-on-week increase in crude flows drove up the country's four-week average, which smooths out peaks and troughs in what are noisy weekly data, affected by the timings of when individual shipments depart and things like weather conditions and work at ports. By that measure, seaborne flows from Russia, at 3.34 million barrels a day, were the highest since June.Inflows to the Kremlin's war-chest from crude export duties rose in line with flows, but the 16% increase in revenues was worth just $8 million, with the burden of taxes on Russian oil shifting from exports to production.
While Russian oil companies have successfully diverted crude shunned by traditional European customers to willing new buyers, predominantly in India, it is unclear yet whether they will find it so easy to redirect refined products to markets that are well supplied from their own refineries.
Tankers hauling Russian crude are becoming more cagey about their final destinations. Vessels carrying more than 33 million barrels of Russian crude, the equivalent of 1.19 million barrels a day of exports, left port showing no clear final destination in the four weeks to Jan. 27.
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/russia-s-oil-cargoes-surge-with-pipe-down-and-fuel-ban-at-hand-1.1876699
Consequences of peeps not being able to buy $100 steaks
Way overpriced for what it is
Dry age it in the fridge for about a week or longer
You can take (wut used to be) an inexpensive cut of meat and do a better job yerself.