They now have all of our sensor information if they didn't already. Even from the F-22. Capturing detailed waveforms doesn't take more than a few thousand dollars of consumer grade electronics for anything under 6ghz. And that was 10 years ago. The higher frequency stuff I'm sure is a little more expensive, but nothing you couldn't fit into a balloon for dirt cheap by nation state standards.
I don't have any first knowledge but I imagine it's a lot harder to get certain types of radar information. Regardless you're probably right. Maybe it's just 5000 lbs of fentanyl on its way to a reservoir.
Nuclear devices typically need to be triggered precisely, so it's unlikely blowing it up would detonate it. But my level knowledge on the subject is limited.