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Anonymous ID: 5aec68 Feb. 10, 2023, 10:14 a.m. No.18320190   🗄️.is 🔗kun   >>0250 >>0296 >>0475 >>0784

China's Credit Monster Is Back: Beijing Injects Nearly $1 Trillion In New Money In One Month

 

One month ago, when looking at the latest Chinese credit data, we said that Beijing's credit flood is about to hit, even if the December data was a disappointment. Two weeks later, we got confirmation when a local paper said that "China Bank Lending in Jan. May Hit Record at Over 4T Yuan", to which our response was that China had just wasted 3 years in another pointless deleveraging experiment to get back where it started: with massive credit injections as the only means for growth. Fast forward to today when just as previewed one month ago, the Chinese Credit Flood arrived with a bang, and a record 4.9 trillion in new loans, which smashed expectations as did the Total Social Financing which came at a near record 6 trillion yuan, or almost $1 trillion in total new credit (i.e., new money) in just one month!

 

The big picture: Total RMB loans surprised the market to the upside mainly on stronger corporate loans – corporate loan growth accelerated to 23.7% month-over-month annualized in January from 16.9% in December, although short-term corporate loans grew faster than medium to long term loans. Household loan growth slowed in contrast – medium to long term loans to households (mostly mortgages) contracted in January vs December last year amid weak property transactions and early repayment of mortgages. Total social financing and M2 beat expectations as well on the back of stronger loan growth.

 

The key numbers:

*New CNY loans: RMB 4900BN in January (RMB loans to the real economy: RMB 4930BN) vs. Bloomberg consensus: RMB 4200BN.

*Outstanding CNY loan growth: 11.3% yoy in January (+12.7% mom sa ann, estimated by GS); December: 11.1% yoy (+12.1% mom sa ann).

*Total social financing: RMB 5980 billion in January, vs. consensus: RMB 5400bn

*TSF stock growth: 9.4% yoy in January, vs. 9.6% in December. The implied month-on-month growth of TSF stock: 11.5% in January (seasonally adjusted annualized rate), more than double the 4.8% December rate.

*M2: 12.6% yoy in January (21% mom sa ann estimated by GS) vs. Bloomberg consensus: 11.7% yoy, December: 11.8% yoy (+2.5% mom sa ann).

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/chinas-credit-monster-back-beijing-injects-nearly-1-trillion-new-money-one-month