26 Feb, 2023 14:26
Defense minister explains conditions for Russian advances in Ukraine
A widening of the military operation depends on the weaponry Kiev gets from the West, Sergey Shoigu has said
Russia’s defense minister has outlined the conditions for a widening of Moscow’s military operation in Ukraine, explaining that potential advances are directly tied to Western arms deliveries to Kiev.
“It depends on the weaponry that will be supplied,” Sergey Shoigu said in a brief remark to the TV program ‘Moscow. Kremlin. Putin.’
The minister appeared to be speaking on the sidelines of President Vladimir Putin’s address to the Federal Assembly, the country’s main legislative body, earlier this week.
“One thing must be clear to everyone,” Putin said during the event. “The longer the range of the Western systems that arrive in Ukraine, the further we will be forced to push the threat away from our borders. It’s obvious.”
Russia sent troops into Ukraine on February 24, 2022, citing the need to protect the people of Donbass republics and Kiev’s failure to implement the 2014-15 Minsk agreements. Ukraine, as well as its supporters in the West, consider the offensive to be completely unprovoked.
Russia has repeatedly urged Western states to stop “pumping” Ukraine with weapons, maintaining that the continuous flow of arms will only prolong the conflict rather than change its ultimate outcome. Kiev, for its part, has repeatedly demanded more and longer-range weaponry from its Western backers, insisting that such systems are needed to push Russian troops out of the territories Ukraine claims as its own.
https://www.rt.com/russia/572090-defense-minister-ukraine-weaponry/
In 2014 in Mearsheimers article on the Ukraine coup said at that time Russia was s weak military country. They had 8 years to plan and ramp up arms and their armies:
“Besides, even if it wanted to,Russia lacks the capability to easily conquer and annex eastern Ukraine, much less the entire country. Roughly 15 million people one-third of Ukraine’s population live between the Dnieper River, which bisects the country, and the Russian border. An overwhelming majority of those people want to remain part of Ukraine and would surely resist a Russian occupation.
Furthermore, Russia’s mediocre army, which shows few signs of turning into a modern Wehrmacht, would have little chance of pacifying all of Ukraine. Moscow is also poorly positioned to pay for a costly occupation; its weak economy would suffer even more in the face of the resulting sanctions.
But even if Russia did boast a powerful military machine and an impressive economy, it would still probably prove unable to successfully occupy Ukraine.
One need only consider the Soviet and U.S. experiences in Afghanistan, the U.S. experiences in Vietnam and Iraq, and the Russian experience in Chechnya to be reminded that military occupations usually end badly. Putin surely understands that trying to subdue Ukraine would be like swallowing a porcupine. His response to events there has been defensive, not offensive.
https://blogs.ubc.ca/security/files/2014/08/Mearsheimer.pdf