>The influence of politics on intelligence assessments is one of our biggest challenges. That allows our enemies to influence our reaction, or lack thereof.
To simplify this process do what a good programmer would do, reduce things down to simple boolean values of true or false, yes or no, positive or negative, fact vs non-fact. Here is how I reduced the Chinese balloon threat as an example:
If they can turn the direction it travels remotely then -it can receive data.
If it can receive data then -it can transmit data.
If it can send and receive data then -potentially hack our computers at facilities
If it can hack our computers at facilities then -it can alter our software
If it can it can alter our software -then it can control radiation leaks and control our monitoring and metrics systems, it could also control our targeting and geo-location systems, program our missiles to detonate on launch, or start a war for us.
This was a huge security violation with implications of thermo nuclear warfare.
In this case, you have to ask a simple question; what are the ramifications for being wrong once?
Godspeed