tyb
$26 is line in the sand for what is left of the hedgies short position in Ag. and same thing last time it was there
Big banks are long ftmp and used that last drop to $20 to get out of a big part of it.
US Mint (ASEs) still can't release what they say they are producing and premiums are back up again also in junk (90%)
Economic Schedule for Week of April 16, 2023
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Monday, April 17th -
8:30 AM: The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for April. The consensus is for a reading of -18.0, up from -24.6.
New York Fed’s Empire State Business Index Surprises Economists, 'Soaring' to 10.8 in April
New orders and shipments rose significantly in April, contributing to a surprising increase in the Empire State business index.
https://www.fxempire.com/news/article/new-york-feds-empire-state-business-index-surprises-economists-soaring-to-10-8-in-april-1339539
10:00 AM: The April NAHB home builder survey. The consensus is for a reading of 45, up from 44. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good.
US homebuilder sentiment improves for fourth straight month -NAHB
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-homebuilder-sentiment-improves-fourth-straight-month-nahb-2023-04-17/
This is basically used as a home builder equity pump job tool as it is non-empirical (survey/sentiment)..similar to the OER (Owner Equivalent Rent) function in the CPI report which is just (BLS) asking random people what they think they can rent their unfurnished home for so if muh dog could talk they would take that opinion and include it in that survey…it is also a 5 month lag so they are only 'seeing' December results in the last CPI report released last week
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Tuesday, April 18th -
8:30 AM ET: Housing Starts for March. The consensus is for 1.400 million SAAR, down from 1.450 million SAAR in February.
GDPNow-Atlanta FED forecast gets updated and was lifted from 2.2% to 2.5% on 0410 and prior to that it had been at 1.7% prior to last weeks adjustment up-this is such a yo-yo and a complete joke but it's what they "have" as a real-time data set. They drop it to reflect data issued but usually quickly raise it to be over the stated 'Blue Chip consensus' so look for that trend to continue-cap#3
https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow
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Wednesday, April 19th -
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index-this will show continued During the day: The AIA's Architecture Billings Index for March (a leading indicator for commercial real estate).
(Mortgage rates-30y fixed-hit a 2 month low earlier this month-cap#2 but turned around later in the week so this may show some improvement but refis will still be at right around 20y lows as those that are able to do it have been in the process of it already).
https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/mortgage-rates/30-year-fixed
2:00 PM: the Federal Reserve Beige Book, an informal review by the Federal Reserve Banks of current economic conditions in their Districts.
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Thursday, April 20th -
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 240 thousand initial claims, up from 239 thousand last week.
8:30 AM: the Philly Fed manufacturing survey for April. The consensus is for a reading of -20.0, up from -24.6.
10:00 AM: Existing Home Sales for March from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for 4.50 million SAAR, down from 4.58 million.
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Friday, April 21st -
10:00 AM: State Employment and Unemployment (Monthly) for March 2023
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2023/04/schedule-for-week-of-april-16-2023.html
PlaneFag CONUS Activity
SAM720 C-32A and SAM721 C-40B (dropped kneepads off at LAX on friday along with SAM2A and both returned to JBA on Sat morning) west from JBA these probably going to LAX to be used for kneepads trip to Reno scheduled for tomorrow (muh abortion)
SAM622 G5 arrived at JBA from Quonset State Airport, R.I overnight
SLICK76 E-4B Nightwatch heading to Offutt AFB (STRATCOM) from JBA depart-Sec of Defense is supposed to go to Sweden and Germany (joined in Germany by JCOS Milley-so we'll see if he gets his Nightwatch (Austin) for that-he has not used that all the time and has used a C-32A for Int'l trips but it's kind of off/on and no real pattern but he should be on the Nightwacth on all Int'l trips and is not
>>18693217 pb Secretary of Defense to Visit Sweden Followed by Ukraine Defense Contact Group Meeting at Ramstein Air Base, Germany
RCH4202 C-17 departing Dover AFB and heading over to JBA
SPAR741 Learjet 35 NE from Barksdale AFB, LA
Chile AF ECH304 Cessna 680 arrived at Wichita (maintenance facility there-Egyptians and Algerians send ACs here for service too)
FORGE94 US army G5 went to Orlando Int'l from
PEPTO01 E-6B Mercury up from Beale AFB
Canadian AF CFC3075 Cl-60 departed Tucson Int'l after an overnight-arrived from Ottawa Int'l depart
RIVER13 F5 Tiger up from NAS Fallon-these are used as the "bad guys" or red adversary ACs cap#3 and is based on the T-38 Talon that has been around since the 50's-at the Naval Weapons Training School (Top Gun)
>>18709943
the Treasury is running the bank bail in(s) (starting with SVB) out of the Exchange Stabilization Fund (Bank Term Lending Facility from NYFRB) and the discount window rate so if they "run out of munee" they'll just crank up the digital press
They use this as a scare tactic and really nothing moar as they will never have an overt default but they may shut down the Gov't using this to provide some kabuki theater.
They'll throw Janet out again saying how 'important' it is but they can always move the piles of digital $s around to make it up as they go along
chek',t kek't and wrek't
take it out (pay the 10% penalty-and there are ways to get around that and completely legal) and buy phyzz cuz it's gonna be a long line to get that out of the vaults in Delaware (if they even have it)