PlaneFag Europe Activity-J.C.O.S Milley arrived at Stockholm yesterday
SAM585 C-40B arrived at Stockholm Int'l yesterday- Milley uses this AC and will then go to Ramstein AFB for >>18693217 pb Secretary of Defense to Visit Sweden Followed by Ukraine Defense Contact Group Meeting at Ramstein Air Base, Germany
German AF GAF369,357,333 A400m returned(ing) to Hannover…333 from Athens and the other two from Souda Bay NAS, Crete
Italian AF PERSE71 G550 ISR (Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance) at it's semi normal area over eastern Romania/Black Sea
RAF RRR9954 A330 MRTT (Multi Role Tanker Transport) was on the refueling track and gave a fill up to RAF RRR7219 RC-135 Rivet Joint and heading back to Cyprus-Rivet Joint heading back to RAF Waddington
Turkish AF TUAF830 A400m was at Wottia AB, Libya for about 2h and departed
Dutch AF NAF12 G4 departed Chisinau, Moldova after about 4 h on ground-moar NATO stuff and this earlier
Moldova summons Russian envoy to expel member of embassy staff
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/moldova-summons-russian-envoy-expel-member-embassy-staff-2023-04-19/
REDEYE06 E-8Joint STARS done over Poland and Lithuania and back to Ramstein
Polish AF PLF110 737 departed Naples, Italy and then a low pass at Zagreb, Serbia-earlier it was at Ramstein AFB for about 4h-heading back to Warsaw at present
There is a meeting of Ukraine Defense Contact Group going on at Ramstein-see linky above re: Milley/Austin
Danish AF DAF5073 CL-60 back to AB Aalborg from Faroe Islands stop and Keflavik AB Iceland depart earlier
Planefag CONUS activity
SAM401 C-32A returned to JBABlinkenlast night from G-7 meeting in Sapporo
82-8000 747 doing roundies at Newport News Int'l on a cert/maintenance flight
GORDO14 E-4B Nightwatch went to Tucson-Davis Monthan AFB while SLICK87 went to Offutt AFB from Dyess AFB, TX
German AF GAF921 A350 went to San Francisco Int'l (a Chile AF AC spent the night there on Monday night and returned to JBA last night)
SING10 E-6B Mercury went back Travis AFB after some NoCal off shore werk earlier
RICO24 Global Hawk drone still up over North Dakota (was up yesterday too) >>18719384 lb
BOXER24 C-40C did some roundies at Grennsboro Int'l and now heading SE
FORGE94 US Army G5 went to Maxwell AFB-Montgomery ,AL from MacDill AFB overnight
SPAR693 Learjet 35 WS from JBA with PAT862 C560 NE from Ft. Worth
Mexi AF FAM3520 737 north from Santa Luci AB (Mex City) heading to Nuevo Laredo
PAT323 Beech C-12V Huron departed San Juan PR NW
FDIC Starts Selling $114 Billion of Bonds From Failed Banks
Agency forecasts a $3.3 billion net loss for deposit-insurance fund. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. has begun selling bonds it inherited from Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank SBNY -3.92% to recoup the cost of rescuing the failed banks’ depositors.
The FDIC put up for auction about $700 million of high-quality mortgage-backed bonds Tuesday in what could prove to be a test of how much the U.S. government recovers on the $114 billion in face value of the bonds it assumed.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/fdic-starts-selling-114-billion-of-bonds-from-failed-banks-37e2b36f
BlackRock to Sell Failed Banks’ Securities for FDIC
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2023-04-17/blackrock-to-sell-failed-banks-securities-for-fdic
and AT1 bonds started getting sold by Sumitomo so it's a good bet that they won't be writing those off at the next failure >>18717863 pb
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About 278 here
MBA: Mortgage Applications Decreased in Weekly Survey
Mortgage applications decreased 8.8 percent from one week earlier, (that is quite a bit change week over week as 30y rates had a 2 month low at the start of the month but are creeping back up towards 7% again-cap#3..pretty much ded in muh area as far as sales go (SoCal)-and see bold below -) according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending April 14, 2023. The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 8.8 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 8 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index decreased 6 percent from the previous week and was 56 percent lower than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 10 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 9 percent compared with the previous week and was 36 percent lower than the same week one year ago. “Last week’s increase in mortgage rates prompted a pullback in application activity. With more first-time homebuyers in the market, we continue to see increased sensitivity to rate changes. The 30-year fixed rate increased 13 basis points to 6.43 percent, which led to purchase applications declining 10 percent,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Chief Economist. “Affordability challenges persist and there is limited for-sale inventory in many markets across the country, so buyers remain selective on when they act. The 10-percent drop in FHA purchase applications, and the increase in the average purchase loan size to its highest level in a month, are other indications that first-time buyers have pulled back. The spread between the jumbo and conforming 30-year fixed rates widened slightly last week to 15 basis points, but this was a much tighter spread compared to the past year. As banks reduce their willingness to hold jumbo loans, we expect this narrowing trend to continue.” According to the MBA, purchase activity is down 36% year-over-year unadjusted.
Red is a four-week average (blue is weekly). The second graph shows the refinance index since 1990. With higher mortgage rates, the refinance index declined sharply in 2022.
https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2023/04/mba-mortgage-applications-decreased-in.html
https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/mortgage-rates/30-year-fixed
"timothy mcveigh detonates….."
then you should bake and shut the fuck up
"Freight Recession" Highlighted By Largest Cargo Drop Since Pandemic
J.B. Hunt Transport Services Inc., the fourth largest trucking company in the US, reported Monday first-quarter profit and revenue that missed expectations, as it explained volumes and revenue per truckload fell amid fears of a "freight recession." "To start, we're in a challenging freight environment where there is deflationary price pressure for an industry that continues to face inflationary cost pressures," President Shelley Simpson told investors in a post-earnings conference call.
Cargo demand has been softening as consumers spend more money on services than goods. Inflation and soaring credit card rates also hurt consumer demand. According to Bloomberg, the latest data from American Trucking Association shows the truck tonnage index dropped 5.4% in March versus February, the largest decline since Aug. 2012.
"Falling home construction, decreasing factory output and soft retail sales all hurt contract freight tonnage," said Bob Costello, chief economist for the ATA.
"The freight market is one of the most volatile markets on the planet. Hot markets can turn ice cold in a flash, particularly after the federal government and central bankers flooded our economy with so much liquidity and then proceeded to institute the fastest monetary tightening cycle in history," supply chain data firm FreightWaves said.
FreightWaves pointed out, "The freight market downturn is a thing of the past. The freight recession has come, and carriers, regardless of whether they operate in the contract or spot markets, are having to contend with it."
FreightWaves' data also shows spot rates of truck hauls have plunged over the last 12 months, tender volumes are sliding, and there's a trucking overcapacity issue. Despite all the gloom, Ravi Shanker, Morgan Stanley transportation equity analyst, recently told clients besides "all the bad headlines and mixed data points on macro, our latest quarterly Shipper Survey keeps showing signs of improvement under the surface." (bwahahahahaha)
Well, that depends if the consumer can survive even more tightening of monetary conditions as the Fed is expected to increase interest rates by 25bps next month to around 500bps.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/freight-recession-highlighted-largest-cargo-drop-pandemic
Cap #2 is Baltic Dry Index (1y) for another reference
The Baltic Exchange's main sea freight index, which measures the cost of shipping goods worldwide, snapped a three-session losing streak on Wednesday, rising about 0.3% to 1,372 points. The panamax index, which usually carries coal or grain cargoes of about 60,000 to 70,000 tonnes, increased by 0.8% to 1,657 points; and the supramax index added 38 points to 1,151 points. Meanwhile, the capesize index, which typically transports 150,000-tonne cargoes carrying commodities such as iron ore and coal, fell 2.1% to its lowest since March 9th at 1,643 points.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/baltic
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