May, 2023 19:45

BREAKDOWN: Why Ukraine's much-anticipated ‘counteroffensive’ could end in failure

Are the Armed Forces of Ukraine ready to mount such a high-stakes operation and what challenges will they face?1/2

Talk about a counteroffensive by the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) has been doing the rounds for months, but it is still not clear when it might begin or whether it will happen at all. Previously, RT analyzed the readiness of the AFU for such an operation, but this time we willdiscuss the main challenges that may prevent Kiev’s troopsfrom implementing or developing its political leaderships aims. And, perhaps most importantly, those of its Western sponsors.

What is the AFU’s main challenge in mounting this sort of endeavor?

We currently do not have any idea of where the AFU’s counteroffensive could take place, although Russian military bosseswill be well aware of troop movements. If it involves an attempt to breakthrough the front line, then in addition to preparing reserves for battle, the AFUwill need high-precision weapons.

Ukrainian troops will have to use long-range artillery rocket systems, including the US-supplied M142 HIMARS MLRS. Since the start of Moscow’s offensive, Kiev has used these systems only from deep within its own territory. However, to achieve momentum and penetrate the defense line, the systems will have to be moved closer to the front.

The current number ofHIMARSrocket launchers (about 35 units)may not be enoughfor a counteroffensive along the entire front line, which stretches for 1,000km. The systems will probably be concentrated in just one or two directions, but this makes them easier to detect and destroy. Moreover, Ukraine only has a finite supply of missiles for most of its Western weapons systems, like the HIMARS, which means the manner in which they can be used is limited. These systems havenever been tested in high-intensity conflicts.

There is currently no doctrine or tested recommendations on using HIMARS/M270 MLRS in combined arms warfare or in such a large-scale war against a technologically advanced enemy.

Difficulties with logistics

Considering the risk of detection in areas with concentrated equipment, and Ukraine’s fear of losing reserves, as we see happening in Artemovsk (Bakhmut), the AFU will likely prepare its most important military formations from12 to 36 hours before the main strike. In the present conditions, it is nearly impossible to amass enough fuel and ammunition. Not to mention the difficulties in trying to position people secretly. Russia has already used Lancet drones to hit German Gepard anti-aircraft guns and Soviet S-300 missile systems close to the front line. As soon as Ukraine’spreviously hidden equipmentwas moved closer to the front line, it became easier to destroy.

This demonstrates that the routes used for transporting Ukrainian military equipment and the places where it is positioned areunder Russian surveillance. If the AFU loses significant amounts of fuel – or transport equipment or engineering units – in the first two or three days, it will have to adjust the counteroffensive’s strategy on the go or implement a backup plan (if it has one). Moreover, Ukraine hasno meansof transferring reserves by air or conducting amphibious warfare. Its supply and logistics fully depend on roads and railways. In such conditions, the destruction of a bridge or a train line on an important supply route may lead to a disaster at the front…..

https://www.rt.com/russia/575657-counteroffensive-could-turn-into-disaster/

>>18794076

2/2

With so many challenges, is it possible that the AFU could postpone the counteroffensive?

To successfully carry out a major counteroffensive, the AFU may not employ hi-tech equipment (like Bayraktar drones or M142 HIMARS systems) and instead rely on brute force: artillery, tanks, large numbers of infantry, and enormous amounts of cartridges, missiles, and shells. However, if something goes wrong, it will be difficult for Kiev to quickly replenish its ammunition. Ukraine’s troops are almost entirely dependent on foreign military aid, including critical weaponry like mortar shells, 122mm, 152mm, and 155mm artillery munitions, anti-tank systems, and cartridges for small arms. We can be certain that its General Staff understands this and the counteroffensive will take these restrictions into account. It’s also clear that theAFU lacks the powerto break through a three to five line defensive front.

What conclusion can we reach?

Judging by the means at the disposal of the AFU, right now, Ukraine is likely to use the units formed with Western help in arapid attempt to “puncture” the front.

Taking into account the current number of reserves, problems with logistics, and other challenges that will surely surface after the start of the counteroffensive, Kiev’s only realistic option is to launch an attack from a specific and previously unannounced direction.

Possible locations include Kherson, the Lugansk People’s Republic, or Zaporozhye. As a backup option, the AFU may consider attacking villages in the Kursk, Bryansk, and Belgorod regions, which are internationally recognised as part of Russia. However, the main challenge for Ukraine is that its first major strike – or even attempts to accumulate forces – may give the game away, and thus kibosh the whole plan.

The End

4 May, 2023 01:15

Blasts reported across Ukraine

Air-raid alerts were declared in many parts of the country, including Kiev

Ukrainian media reported a series of explosions in the capital and several other cities with air defenses activated to repel alleged Russian drone and missile attacks on Thursday morning.

Several blasts were heard in Kiev after the city’s administration warned the residents of an incoming attack around 2am local time, according to news agency UNIAN.

At the same time at least explosions blasts were reported in Odessa, news agency RBC Ukraine reports. Local residents shared unconfirmed photos and videos of the purported strikes on Telegram.

Calls on the public to heed warnings about missile threats have also come from Nikolayev, Poltava, Chernigov, Sumy, Kharkov and Dnepropetrovsk regions, among others.

The Russian Defense Ministry has so far not commented on the alleged strikes.

The reported strikes come after Ukraine allegedly launched two drone attacks intended to strike Russian President Putin’s Kremlin residence. The aircraft were downed using electronic warfare measures and did not cause any casualties or damage, according to the Russian president’s office.

“We consider this a preplanned terrorist action and an attempt against the Russian president,” a message from the Kremlin read.

Russia reserves the right to retaliate in a manner, place, and time of its choosing, the statement added.

https://www.rt.com/russia/575753-ukraine-missile-strike-warning/

>>18794092

Its on anons, keep an eye put, anon is going to bed soon

4 May, 2023 02:25

Fire erupts at another Russian oil facility – governor

This is the second such incident in Krasnodar region in as many days

Fire erupts at another Russian oil facility – governor

A fire broke out overnight at an oil storage facility in Russia’s Krasnodar Region following a suspected drone strike, TASS news agency reported citing a source in the local emergency services.

“A second restless night for our emergency services,” local governor Veniamin Kondratyev said on Thursday morning, confirming that dozens of firefighters are working to contain the blaze at the Ilsky oil refinery.

No injuries have been reported, and local residents are not in danger, the official added. The fire was fully contained and extinguished by 5:30am.

While the governor did not reveal the suspected cause of the incident, a source told TASS that a fuel storage tank caught fire early Thursday morning allegedly “due to an attack of an unknown drone.” Witnesses reported at least one explosion in the area shortly before the blaze started around 2:40am local time, according to the Baza Telegram channel.

The incident comes a day after another oil facility in Krasnodar Region caught fire, also due to an alleged drone strike. Authorities, however, have yet to officially confirm the cause of the incident in the village of Volna, 10 km north of the port city of Taman andclose to the east end of the strategic Crimean Bridge.

In late April Ukraine claimed it was behind the attack on an oil terminal in the Crimean port of Sevastopol, which destroyed four oil tanks, according to local authorities. Kiev stated then that the raid wasmeant to lay the ground for a much-talked-about Ukrainian spring counteroffensive.

Early Wednesday morning, two UAVs exploded over the Kremlin and the Russian Senate, with authorities saying they were brought down by air defenses. There were no injuries or reports of damage in the attack which Russia blamed on Ukraine, but theKremlin said it reserves the right to retaliate in a manner, place, and time of its choosing.

https://www.rt.com/russia/575754-krasnodar-oil-facility-fire/

>>18794110

Anons Kremlin launching retaliation strikes and Ukraine attacking Crimea area NOW. Watch through the night

>>18794102

I don’t know I like the pepes but I do, taking that and TY anon

>>18794170

So true, cycles come, go, and recycle…sort of like reincarnation, it does gets old after 10,000 years though

>>18794198

Damn thats the first thing i laughed today and yesterday

>>18794205

Pathetic people, blame everyone else. He should blame his brain damage for his brain damage

>>18794285

God I love that

3 May, 2023 15:04

EU becoming ‘straitjacket’ for Sweden – party leader

The bloc has too much influence on domestic affairs, Sweden Democrats head Jimmie Akesson has claimed

Sweden has significant reasons to reconsider its EU membership as the bloc is increasing its influence on member states’ internal affairs, particularly immigration policies, the leader of the Sweden Democrats, Jimmie Akesson, has argued.

Writing for the Aftonbladet daily in an op-ed published on Tuesday, Akesson claimed that“EU membership is starting to look dangerously like a straitjacket” for Sweden as thebalance of power shifts from Stockholm to Brussels.

Akesson has been in charge of the Euroskeptic, right-wing Sweden Democrats (SD) since 2005. The party is currently the second largest in the country.

The MP said that the EU should focus on trade between member states, although he claimed it would be naive to hope for any serious changes in this area in the near future.

Akesson further insisted that Stockholm must “influence the union in a direction that would benefit Sweden to a greater degree,” but suggested that “ominously, the development is going in the wrong direction.”

To back up his case, the SD leader stated thatover 60% of all decisions in Swedishmunicipalities and regions are in some wayinfluenced by the EU. According to Akesson, this demonstrates that foreigners effectively have a greater impact on Swedish legislation than its own MPs.

Within the EU as a whole, Sweden plays a role that is too insignificant, resulting in German, Polish and French policymakers having a bigger say in “what cars you will buy, howexpensive the petrolwill be, orwhich treesyou will be allowed to cut downon your own land,”Akesson asserted.

He further claimed that theEU wants to increase its cloutregardingimmigrationpolicies while many Swedes want tighter regulations. “Despite this, today there is an imminent risk that the EU will make decisions that go in the exact opposite direction if we do not act,” the party leader warned.

Immigration has been a hot topic in Sweden since at least the 2015 migrant crisis, when the Nordic country emerged as a major European destination for refugees.

With apopulation of 10 millionpeople, Sweden received 163,000 and 144,000 migrants in 2015 and 2016 respectively. While those figures fell sharply in subsequent years, as of 2022,foreign-born citizens make up 20% of the nation’s population.

https://www.rt.com/news/575719-eu-sweden-straitjacket-membership/

Anons get it trending#LeaveTheEU

3 May, 2023 10:43

NATO applicant refuses to participate in bloc’s wargames

Georgia’s military is taking part in other drills at home and abroad, the country’s defense ministry says

The Georgian military will not participate in NATO’s ongoing Defender 23 exercises, and will instead focus on other drills this year, the country’s defense ministry has said.

The wargames, led by the US European Command, kicked off on April 22 and will continue until June 23. According to the Pentagon, their main goal is to boost interoperability between NATO members in Europe, while also demonstrating how fast troops can be deployed across the continent.Some 9,000 US servicemenand around 17,000 troops from 26 other countries are expected to be involved in the exercises.

Georgia was initially listed among the participants, but on Tuesday, the defense ministry inTbilisi confirmed that its forces will not be involved.

“Based on the goals and objectives of the Defense Forces, through active communication with our main strategic partner, it was decided to direct more efforts and resources to such international and local exercises, which include increasing combat readiness, increasing interoperability with NATO member countries and partners, exchange of experience and improvement of professional skills,” the ministry said in a statement.

The Georgian forces have already participated in four international drills in 2023 and are planning to take part in several more before the end of the year, the ministry noted.

The leaking of information to the media regarding Georgia’s withdrawal from the NATO drills was “another provocation” against the defense ministry, the statement added.

During its Bucharest summit in 2008, NATO said Georgia and Ukraine should join the bloc, but didn’t provide any timeline for their accession.Georgia has retained its status as an “aspirant country” since 2011. In February, a survey by pollster CRRC-Georgia suggested that some 74% of the population were in favor of the country joining the bloc.

https://www.rt.com/russia/575700-georgia-nato-us-drills/

3 May, 2023 07:55

Ukrainian hitmen busted in Crimea – FSB

The military intelligence agents had allegedly planned to assassinate top Russian officials

A Ukrainian military intelligence plot to assassinate top Russian officials in Crimea has been thwarted by the Federal Security Service (FSB). The agency reportedlybusted a connected terrorist ringthat may also have sabotaged a railway in February.

An FSB statement released on Wednesday said the group’s ringleader wasRoman Mashovets, a public figure in Ukraine who serves as anofficer of the GUR, the country’s military intelligence agency. He is alsodeputy head of the office of President Vladimir Zelensky.

Mashovets is a close associate of GUR chief Kirill Budanov, who had recruited six Russian and Ukrainian citizens for the operation in Crimea, the FSB claimed, naming each suspect. The group was tasked with preparing hits on senior officials, including the head of the Republic of Crimea, the chair of the region’s parliament, and the mayor of Yalta. The team had also allegedly planned sabotage operations on transport infrastructure.

The Ukrainian agents had an established smuggling channel, which allowed them to obtain explosives, detonators, tracking devices and other equipment, the FSB said.

The Russian agency reportedly seized five improvised explosive devices, 6kg of British-made plastic explosives, and other incriminating items during the raid. Footage of the operation also showed several handgrenades apparently discovered at one location.

The seized explosives were identical to those used in the sabotage of a railway in Crimea on February 23, the statement noted. This incident happened in Bakhchisaray district and disrupted traffic on the peninsula, according to reports at the time.

The alleged trafficking route went from Bulgaria via Türkiye and Georgia and involved three Ukrainian nationals and a Bulgarian citizen identified by the FSB as D. Petranov. He was arrested in Crimea along with the members of the Ukrainian ring, according to the statement. The smuggled equipment was hidden in electric cooking stoves, the agency claimed.

https://www.rt.com/russia/575688-gur-agents-crimea-fsb/