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Payrolls Soar By 339K, Blowing Away Highest Estimate, Even As People Employed Tumble By 310K Sending Unemployment Rate Higher
With consensus expecting a modest payroll drop from 291K to 195K, the whisper number coming in alittle higher at 225K and Goldman's trading desk nfp matrix as follows: "a print sub 100k likely hits the tape by ~100bps and a print north of 375k hits the tape by 25 – 50bps", literally nobody was expecting a print above 252K which was the highest forecast among economists, moments ago the BLS reported yet another blowout stunner: according to Biden's Dept of Labor, in May the US added a whopping 339K jobs, almost double the median estimate and well above the highest forecast. There were of course, revisions, with the March payrolls change revised up by 52,000, from +165,000 to +217,000, and the change for April was revised up by 41,000, from +253,000 to +294,000. With these revisions, employment in March and April combined is 93,000 higher than previously reported. Going back to the May print, not only was this a 4 sigma beat to expectations… but it was the 12th beat of expectations in the past 13 months. And yet, while the Establishment survey was a blowout beat and the strongest print since January, the Household survey unexpectedly tumbled by the most since April 22 as it plunged by 310K jobs… pushing the divergence between the two series back to near record wides-cap#3… and resulting in a 0.3% jump in the Unemployment rate which rose from 3.4% to 3.7%. While black men had been leading job gains this year, and their unemployment rate recently hit a record low, the past two months have shown what could be the start of a reversal of that trend. The percentage of Black men who are employed, which reached a 16-year high in March, has since fallen.
Drilling down, we find the the unemp rate for both the youngest and oldest (the under-24s and the 55+ age groups) soared in May. As for the underlying cause behind the unemployment surge, Indeed economist Nick Bunker points out that the "unemployment rate rose for all the wrong reasons. More employed people moving into unemployment and fewer unemployed workers finding jobs." One ~~possible~~ THE (FIFY) reason for the massive divergence: the birth death model "added" 231K jobs in March. These are not actual jobs, but merely an assumption by the BLS as to how many new businesses were created and hired workers based on statistical assumptions.Again, these are not actual jobs.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/may-payrolls-soar-339k-blowing-away-highest-estimate-even-people-employed-actually-tumble
If you want a closer reading to what is actually going on in the jobs market go here: https://www.shadowstats.com/
None of the BLS #s account for the millions that drop out of the labor force (i.e. not counted) not even the U6 component-which is at 6.7% and both would be massively higher if they did…so they don't.
The markets, of course, love this on a friday-cap#4 and the CME FEDwatch has swung back to a higher % of no rate raise for the next FOMC meeting-cap#5
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EDJI
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html
>>18940372 lb
PLF101 G5Dudadeparted Krakow after a quick ground stop and back to Warsaw-Chopin Int'l
JPMorgan's Dimon Visits Taiwan to Meet Staff, Clients
Jamie Dimon, the chief executive of U.S. bank JPMorgan Chase & Co, is visiting Taiwan on Friday, a source with direct knowledge of the matter said, his first trip to the island in a nearly a decade, after concluding a visit to China this week.
Dimon's trip to Taipei, where JPMorgan has had a banking presence since 1970, comes amid heightened tension over the democratically-governed island, which Beijing claims as its own territory. Taiwan strongly rejects China's sovereignty claims.
But China, which bristles at visits to Taiwan by foreign government officials, tends to ignore trips by business executives, who usually keep clear of politics.
"The Chinese are much more concerned about U.S. government contacts with Taiwan than they are with private firms and banks doing business," said Andrew Collier, managing director at Orient Capital Research in Hong Kong.
"As long as executives steer clear of political statements, they should be able to pass the Chinese litmus tests."
Dimon will meet bank employees and clients in Taiwan on his visit, said the source, who sought anonymity as the plans were not public, while adding that no meetings were planned with Taiwan officials.
https://money.usnews.com/investing/news/articles/2023-06-02/jpmorgans-jamie-dimon-to-visit-taiwan-after-china-trip-bloomberg-news
The JP Moran registered AC that left Shanghai as Musk arrived from Beijing (right around the same time) >>18929591 pb was apparently not Dimon-unless this story above is complete bullshit…that AC left Shanghai and went to Bangalore, then Mumbai >>18934340 pb and landed at London-Stansted about 50min ago and has now departed heading NW-cap#2
yawn….
Disgraced Silvergate Bank Hints It May Not Be Able to Cover All of Its Deposits; Fed Slaps It with a Cease and Desist Consent Order
Last week, on Tuesday, May 23, the Federal Reserve and California Department of Financial Protection and Innovation (the state banking regulator) hit the collapsed federally-insured bank, Silvergate Bank, and its parent, Silvergate Capital Corporation, with an enforcement action called a “Cease and Desist Consent Order.” The action was not announced to the public until yesterday.
A Consent Order is meant to function along the lines of a legal settlement, with the bank agreeing to the detailed terms of the Consent Order and waiving its right to judicial review. The individual signing the Consent Order on behalf of the bank was its controversial CEO, Alan Lane, who had allowed his federally-insured bank to get in bed with Sam Bankman-Fried’s house of frauds, including the FTX crypto exchange and Bankman-Fried’s hedge fund, Alameda Research. Lane also had allowed his deposit base to become heavily involved with other crypto-related companies. When details of the Bankman-Fried relationship with Silvergate Bank came out in the news, a run on deposits commenced. On January 5, Silvergate reported in a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) that its “total deposits from digital asset customers declined to $3.8 billion” as of December 31, 2022 (down from the previously reported $11.9 billion on September 30, 2022.) That’s a 68 percent drop in deposits in one quarter. The primary regulator of Silvergate Bank was, embarrassingly, the Federal Reserve, which had farmed out the examinations of the bank to the San Francisco Fed. The San Francisco Fed was also the primary supervisor for Silicon Valley Bank, which failed on March 10 and was put into FDIC receivership.
Silvergate announced on March 8 that it was going to voluntarily wind down and liquidate itself. That announcement included this statement on its deposits: “The Bank’s wind down and liquidation plan includes full repayment of all deposits.” (We thought to ourselves at the time, do federal bank regulators really want to trust a bank with this dubious history to make its depositors whole?)
https://wallstreetonparade.com/2023/06/disgraced-silvergate-bank-hints-it-may-not-be-able-to-cover-all-of-its-deposits-fed-slaps-it-with-a-cease-and-desist-consent-order/
Order to Cease and Desist Issued Upon Consent Pursuant to the Federal Deposit Insurance Act, as Amended, and the California Financial Code
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/files/enf20230601a1.pdf