Michael Knowles
@michaeljknowles
It's astounding how many conservatives don't understand this. It's even in theofficial name, "Juneteenth National Independence Day."
Auron MacIntyre
@AuronMacintyre
For those who need it spelled out for them:The purpose of popularizing a holiday no one had ever heard of which focused on slavery a few weeks ahead of Independence Day was always to replace July 4th
1:31 PM · Jun 19, 2023
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303.2K
https://twitter.com/michaeljknowles/status/1670866032456499201?s=20
He’s right! The judgement is coming.
https://twitter.com/beholdisrael/status/1670885727809474560?s=20
=Foreign Policy Blob Realizes Ukraine Ceasefire Is Inevitable==
Fred Fleitz.1/2
On June 5, the day after Ukraine’s long-delayed spring counteroffensive began, Council on Foreign Relations President Richard Haass said during an appearance on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe” that a ceasefire in the war, with Ukraine not recovering most of its territory, is inevitable.
Haass’s position reflects the views of other national security experts who have drifted from the dominant narrative about the Russia-Ukraine war, arguing that both military and political necessities will force Ukraine to admit it cannot attain victory and accept a ceasefire.
For example, last month, left-wing U.S. foreign policy experts and peace activists ran ads in The New York Times and The Hill calling for an end to the war and peace talks. Republican presidential candidate Ron DeSantis said in April that a ceasefire was in everyone’s interests. GOP presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy has called on Ukraine to make “major concessions” to Russia to end the war so the U.S. can focus on the threat from China.
Former President Donald Trump has also called for a swift end to the war and has said he will accomplish this in 24 hours if he wins the 2024 presidential election.
On the other hand, Ukrainian officials, the Biden administration, and many American experts continue to insist that Ukraine can “win” the war with Russia if the U.S. and our allies provide it with the military aid it needs. Winning, in their view, means Russian forces leave Ukrainian territory and Ukraine takes back all its territory, including Crimea, which Russia seized in 2014.
The Ukrainian government refuses to consider peace talks or a ceasefire before it recovers all its territory. Biden administration officials also are hostile to a settlement before a complete Ukrainian victory because they claim this would reward Russian aggression. Instead, the Biden administration continues to say it will provide military aid to Ukraine “for as long as it takes.”
Those who do not completely support this position are regularly accused of being pro-Putin, anti-Ukraine, and refusing to stand up for freedom. This happened to Trump when he said in response to a question at a recent CNN town hall on whether he wants Ukraine to win the conflict, “I don’t think in terms of winning and losing, I think in terms of getting it settled so we can stop killing all those people.”
Haass’s dissent from the Biden administration’s approach is significant because as the unofficial dean of the U.S. foreign policy establishment, his surprising conclusion that the Biden administration’s Ukraine policy cannot succeed carries a lot of weight.
Haass explained his thinking in depth in an April 2023 Foreign Affairs article co-authored with Georgetown University Professor Charles Kupchan, also a U.S. foreign policy establishment leader, in which they argue that the West needs a new strategy to get from the battlefield to the negotiating table in the Ukraine War because “the most likely outcome of the conflict is not a complete Ukrainian victory but a bloody stalemate.”
The two experts support providing Ukraine with the weapons it needs for its spring counteroffensive but believe this campaign probably will not change the likelihood of a long-term stalemate. According to Haass and Kupchan, “Even if the West steps up its military assistance, Ukraine is poised to fall well short of vanquishing Russian forces. It is running out of soldiers and ammunition, and its economy continues to deteriorate.”
Haass and Kupchan echoed other concerns by American conservatives about a long-term continuation of the war in Ukraine: that the war is depleting stockpiles of critical weapons and damaging the global economy. They also warned that the Ukraine war might undermine America and its allies’ capability to engage in possible future military actions in other regions — especially concerning Taiwan and Iran — and that the Ukraine war is increasingly conflicting with other U.S. global priorities.
Haass and Kupchan hope Ukraine will be open to pursuing diplomatic options, probably a ceasefire at first after its current counteroffensive ends in about six months. They also believe Putin might consider a ceasefire this fall as a face-saving off-ramp if the Ukrainian counteroffensive makes battlefield gains.
The two experts concede, however, that it may be difficult to convince the two sides to agree to a ceasefire and peace talks. Although Ukraine might try to reject a ceasefire, Haass and Kupchan believe the political reality that U.S. and European military aid cannot be sustained, coupled with possible Russian agreement to a ceasefire, might give Kyiv no choice but to accept. ..
https://thefederalist.com/2023/06/19/foreign-policy-blob-starts-to-admit-a-ukraine-ceasefire-is-inevitable/
Foreign Policy Blob Realizes Ukraine Ceasefire Is Inevitable
2/2
Haass also said in his MSNBC interview that he expects the West to put significant pressure on Ukraine by the spring of 2025 to agree to a ceasefire. In my view, that is far too late: If a ceasefire is inevitable, that pressure should start now.
Haass and Kupchan are not optimistic about a peace settlement even if a ceasefire holds. They concede that Russia may not negotiate in good faith, and Ukraine probably will not drop its demand to return to its 1991 borders. If this happens, they believe Ukraine could become a “frozen conflict” like those that have existed on the Korean peninsula and Cyprus for decades. Haass and Kupchan acknowledge this is not a desirable outcome but would be far better than the likely alternative — “a high-intensity war that continues for years.”
These two experts suggested several incentives to promote a ceasefire and peace talks. In exchange for abiding by a ceasefire, a demilitarized zone, and participating in peace talks, Russia could be offered some limited sanctions relief. Ukraine would not be asked to relinquish the goal of regaining all its territory, but it would agree to use diplomacy, not force, with the understanding that this will require a future diplomatic breakthrough that probably will not occur before Putin leaves office. Until that happens, the U.S. and its allies would pledge to only fully lift sanctions against Russia and normalize relations after it signs a peace agreement acceptable to Ukraine.
Haass and Kupchan also propose offering Ukraine some form of formal security pact that falls short of NATO membership, a long-term EU economic support pact, and a timetable for admission to the EU.
Even if both parties agree to a ceasefire, according to the two experts, the West would continue to provide Ukraine with the weapons it needs to defend itself over the long term. This would help ensure that Russia does not exploit a pause in the fighting to rearm and resume the war.
I think that makes sense. But Haass and Kupchan also propose that the U.S. greatly increase military aid to Ukraine and remove restrictions on the Ukrainian army striking targets inside Russia if Putin violates the ceasefire. Such an escalation is a bad idea that could lead Russia to escalate and possibly use nuclear weapons. A better approach would be to keep pushing for a ceasefire until one is achieved.
Haass and Kupchan proposed several ways to shore up a ceasefire to make it last. Both sides would pull back their weapons to create a demilitarized zone. Either the United Nations or the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe would send observers (peacekeepers) to verify compliance with the ceasefire and the DMZ.
These ideas are stunning heresy from gurus of a foreign policy establishment that refuses to consider any outcome for the Ukraine war short of a complete Russian withdrawal. Some conservatives share this view, including Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley, who insists that the U.S. must help Ukraine “win” to defend freedom and prevent a world war.
Haass and Kupchan disagree. They are admitting what many conservative experts have been contending: The Ukraine war is not a vital U.S. national security interest and is interfering with other vital U.S. national security interests. They also believe Ukraine cannot win a long-term war of attrition and, as unjust and immoral as Russia’s occupation of Ukraine is, thousands more Ukrainian deaths in an endless stalemate also would be unjustifiable and immoral.
For these and other reasons, Haass and Kupchan are urging the West to adopt a new strategy to end the Ukraine war with a ceasefire and peace talks.
Haass and Kupchan’s analysis lacked an urgent call on Western powers to immediately press for a ceasefire or the suggestion that U.S. military aid to Ukraine should be conditioned on Ukraine’s agreement to seriously pursue a ceasefire and peace talks. But their article represents a shift in the thinking of the foreign policy establishment on the Ukraine war.
Their words may lead many more on the American left and right to speak out on the pointlessness of Biden’s policy on the Ukraine war and to call for a ceasefire and peace talks to end the war. Let’s hope Biden will listen
https://thefederalist.com/2023/06/19/foreign-policy-blob-starts-to-admit-a-ukraine-ceasefire-is-inevitable/
(Only 300,000+ Ukranians dead or injured before theseexpertscame to this conclusion)
why hasn’t Abbott banned these in TX?
https://twitter.com/Oilfield_Rando/status/1670594699600510977?s=20
Nick Sortor
@nicksortor
If you have a moment today, PLEASE pray for my good friend @RealMattCouch, as he was just admitted to the ICU around 2am this morning in "serious condition."
Matt is a true American patriot that has been willing to give up EVERYTHING to support our country. He's an inspiration to me.
Doctors are saying Matt is a "very sick man" and are doing everything they can to combat hissymptoms of heart failure, kidney failure, and liver function failure.
As of now, doctors believe he has blood clots scattered all throughout his body, including his right leg, kidney, and even his heart.
There's a VERY real possibility he could lose his leg just below the knee—or worse.
I'm in close contact with Matt and will provide updates on this thread as I have them.
Thanks so much for supporting
https://twitter.com/nicksortor/status/1670805532821663749?cxt=HHwWisC9ifSx8q8uAAAA
Old but Good
Revealed: How Bill Barr and Chris Wray Worked to Block Trump’s Efforts to Go After Antifa(VIDEO)
New details are coming to light about how Bill Barr and Chris Wray blocked President Donald Trump’s attempts to go after Antifa while he was still in the White House.
Cassandra MacDonaldJun. 2, 2021 4:38 pm
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Appearing on Steve Bannon’s War Room, author and journalist Jack Posobiec previewed details about the move from his riveting new book Antifa: Stories From Inside the Black Bloc
As Trump was trying to stop the rioting that was tearing apart cities in 2020, Attorney General William Barr labeled antifa simply “organized…revolutionaries.”
FBI Director Christopher Wray was even worse, claiming “It’s not a group or an organization. It’s a movement or an ideology,” and that “folks who subscribe or identify” with antifa do not operate at a national level, but instead organize “regionally into small groups or nodes.”
Barr also reportedly threatened to quit if President Trump fired Wray.
Speaking to Bannon, Posobiec explained that when Trump went to Wray about tackling the problem, he would blow him off or lie and say that they would get to it.
“Wray either balked at it or said ‘oh, we’ll get to it” and shrugged his shoulders and did nothing,” Posobiec explained. “Meanwhile, he turns around and look what he does to the people of January 6th.”
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2021/06/revealed-bill-barr-chris-wray-worked-block-trumps-efforts-go-antifa-video/
https://twitter.com/JackPosobiec/status/1670942201746956289?s=20
This counteroffensive is turning out to be a hoax
https://twitter.com/JackPosobiec/status/1670916962291949570?s=20
20 Jun, 2023 12:37
Kiev offers ‘no stable grounds’ for talks – Kremlin
Russia has laid the blame with Ukraine for lack of any peace negotiations
Kiev’s uncompromising stance is leaving no opening for peace talks with Russia, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has said, reiterating Moscow’s long-held position on the issue.
“[Russian President Vladimir] Putin is open to contacts. There was a very productive exchange with an African delegation on Saturday and this dialogue will continue,” the official told journalists on Tuesday.
However, “considering the position held currently by the Ukrainian regime and the background of this position, one cannot say there are any stable grounds for eventual talks,” he added.
A delegation of seven African leaders visited Russia last week after a trip to Ukraine, to present a ten-point roadmap designed to end ongoing hostilities between the two neighbors.
During the Saturday meeting, Putin explained to his guests the history of failed truce talks that Moscow and Kiev held in the first months of the conflict. Among other things,he showed the foreign dignitaries a draft treaty, which the Ukrainian negotiators provisionally accepted in Istanbul last year.
The deal would have ended hostilities and enshrined Ukraine’s status as a neutral state with a limited military force in exchange for international security guarantees. Kiev pulled out of the talks shortly afterwards, in what Moscow claimed to be a US-ordered U-turn.
Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky has since signed a decree that prohibits any talks with Russiafor as long as Putin remains in office. His government claimed that its only option was to fully oust Russian troops from all territories that Kiev claims to be its own.
Kiev has penned a so-called “peace plan”which includes Russian withdrawal, reparations, tribunals for alleged war criminals and other conditions it wants met. Zelensky told the African leaders that his plan was the only one he would proceed with. Russia has rejected the proposal, calling it detached from reality.
(The time is coming Zelensky will have to bend, and it’s coming soon.)
https://www.rt.com/russia/578341-peskov-peace-talks-ukraine/
20 Jun, 2023 13:24
Zelensky appoints ‘f-word’ envoy to Brazil
Scandal-plagued Andrey Melnik served as Ukraine’s deputy foreign minister for seven months
Former Ukrainian deputy foreign minister Andrey Melnik, who caused controversy during his tenure as Kiev’s envoy to Germany, has been named as his country’s new ambassador to Brazil, according to a decree published on President Vladimir Zelensky’s website.
Melnik lasted seven months as deputy foreign minister after being appointed to the role last November.
Prior to that, the 47-year-old had served as Kiev’s envoy to Germany for seven years, before he wassacked last July following a series of scandalous remarks.
During his time in Berlin, Melnik repeatedly accused the German government of being too slow to provide military assistance to Ukraine amid the conflict with Russia, despite Berlin being one of Kiev’s prime backers at the EU.
In May 2022, helabeled German Chancellor Olaf Scholz an “offended liver sausage” for his apparent unwillingness to visit Kiev, prompting some German MPs to call for Melnik’s expulsion. Scholz eventually traveled to Ukraine one month later.
Melnik also sparred with Elon Musk on Twitter, telling the SpaceX and Tesla CEO to “f**k off”over his plan for a peaceful settlement of the conflict with Russia.
Shortly before his dismissal as deputy foreign minister, Melnik defended Stepan Bandera – a controversial Ukrainian nationalist leader who collaborated with the Nazis during World War II.
The diplomat claimed on a German podcast thatBandera had nothing to do with the mass murder of Jews and Poles, comparing him to Robin Hood, who “is being revered by everyone” despite being someone who “didn’t act according to the law that was in force then.”
The remarks raised eyebrows in Germany, Poland and Israel, with Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry being forced to clarifying that Melnik’s comments reflected his own views, rather than Kiev’s official position.
Melnik’s new post takes him to Brazil, which has adopted a neutral stance since the outbreak of the conflict in Ukraine in February 2022. It has condemned Russia for launching its military operation, but has declined to provide military aid to Kiev or join international sanctions against Moscow.
“We need to work to create the space for negotiations [between Russia and Ukraine],”Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva said last month. Lula had earlier proposed to create a “peace club” of like-minded nations to mediate an end to the conflict.
https://www.rt.com/news/578344-ukraine-melnik-germany-brazil/
20 Jun, 2023 13:36
Old graves exhumed in Ukraine to bury conflict victims – NYT
Russia has accused the West of conducting a proxy war “to the last Ukrainian”
Ukrainian cemeteries are filling up with the bodies of soldiers killed on the frontline, so much that authorities sometimes have to exhume old graves to make room for the newly deceased, The New York Times has reported. Russia has warned that by arming Kiev Western nations were increasing the cost of the war for Ukrainians.
The Monday article in the Times reported on the “seemingly countless funerals” taking place in the western Ukrainian city of Lviv. The magnitude of frontline losses is felt by the community, as fresh graves multiply in the cemeteries, the newspaper said.
A groundskeeper at one of them told the US outlet that since the beginning of hostilities in February last year, the military burials in her care grew in number from a small cluster to some 500. The management decided to exhume unmarked graves from World War I to make room for the newly deceased, she added.
In another example this week, the mayor of Ivano-Frankivsk, another western Ukrainian regional capital, announced that visitors to the city cemetery will be able to rent bicycles and electric scooters. Ruslan Martsinkiv said the service was his administration’s response to complaints by relatives who found it difficult to move around the rapidly growing premises.
Both Ukraine and Russia decline to publish their own frontline casualties and each claim that its opponent has sustained more than reported. Kiev is currently engaged in a counteroffensive against Russian defensive positions, trying to make use of the tanks and other military equipment supplied to it by Western nations. The push has so far reportedly come at a great cost with no significant territorial gains achieved.
Moscow has accused the US and its allies of causing the armed conflict in the first place, by moving NATO infrastructure into Ukraine and threatening Russian national security.
Western nations that arm Kiev allegedly stopped it from striking a peace deal in the first months of the conflict, and are waging a proxy war on Russia “to the last Ukrainian,” officials in Moscow have claimed. The Russian government said it was determined to safeguard its nation despite the cost.
(Why would they exhume graves? There is certainly a lot more than 500. In Bakhmut alone 50,000 died. Why wouldn’t they open new graveyards?)
https://www.rt.com/russia/578343-lviv-military-funerals-nyt/
Moscow Warns Kyiv Against Targeting Crimea with Western Arms
By AF 2 hours ago
Moscow claimed Tuesday that Ukrainian forces were planning to use Western-supplied missiles to strike targets inside Russia and the annexed peninsula of Crimea, threatening "immediate retaliation."
"The leadership ofUkraine's armed forces plans to strike Russian territory, including Crimea, with HIMARS and Storm Shadow missiles," Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said during a meeting with military officials.
Shoigu warned of swift retaliation in the event the weapons were used to strike targets inside Russia or on the Black Sea territory that Moscow annexed in 2014.
"The use of these missiles outside the zone of the special military operationwill mean the United States and Great Britain's full involvementin the conflict and will entailimmediate strikes on decision-making centers in Ukraine," Shoigu said.
The United States has spearheaded the push for military support for Ukraine, quickly forging an international coalition to back Kyiv after Russia sent troops to Ukraine in February 2022 and coordinating aid from dozens of countries.
Moscow has accused Western countries of directly waging warfare against Russia by arming Ukraine.
In recent weeks drone attacks have struck cities in Russia and targets in Crimea, but Kyiv has not claimed responsibility for the incidents.
https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/06/20/moscow-warns-kyiv-against-targeting-crimea-with-western-arms-a81570