21 Aug, 2023

Public mood in Ukraine ‘somber’ amid ‘sluggish’ counter-offensive – media

People are losing their willingness to fight amid battlefield failures, The Economist has warned

Ukrainian society is showing increasing signs of fatigue over the conflict with Russia, with some frontline soldiers hoping for a ceasefire, despite the government’s determination to keep fighting, The Economist has claimed.

“The public mood is sombre,” the British publication reported on Sunday, pointing to the heavy losses suffered by Ukrainian troops during the summer counter-offensive.

The public increasingly perceives the conflict as “a war that has no end in sight” and is reluctant to pay for it in treasure and blood, the article reads, adding that people who were keen to fight “volunteered long ago”, so Kiev is now “recruiting mostly among the unwilling.”

“It makes the air so thick that you can actually feel it,” an activist supporting the troops told the magazine. With the cost of prolonging hostilities becoming obvious, “even hoping for success in the counter-offensive has become an act of self-destruction.”

The attitude is apparently shared by those doing the fighting, The Economist suggested, citing an interview with a sniper, which went viral in Ukraine earlier this month. The soldier, Konstantin Proshinsky, claimed that fellow troops would take a truce with Russia “absolutely fine”.

“I am not speaking for everyone, but I don’t believe that in that scenario the army would turn around and march to Kiev to topple the government,” he told local media.

He branded as “self-gratifying populism” President Vladimir Zelensky’s maximalist goal of retaking all land that Kiev claims to be under its sovereignty, including Crimea.

The Russian Defense Ministry assessed Ukrainian battlefield casualties during the counter-offensive at over 43,000 as of early August.

Kiev has taken an uncompromising stance on talks since last year, after what Moscow claimed to be a US order to ditch a draft peace agreement and fight on. Russian officials have accused Western powers of fighting a proxy war against their nation “to the last Ukrainian”.

https://www.rt.com/russia/581586-ukraine-conflict-public-fatigue/

7 Weeks and the Faustian Deal Hits the Table

August 20, 2023 | Sundance1/2

I’m not always right. Sometimes events change and intersections take place on the path toward the predicted outcome. However, when ancillary events -mostly driven by human intervention in an effort to avoid what’s coming- do not cross the directional path, we arrive at the predicted destination.

At the end of May CTH shared the motive behind a series of events we should see unfold on the Twitter platform. By the time we arrived in June, there was enough actual data to solidify a timeline {GO DEEP}. Shortly after, the New York Times published leaked revenue side documents allowing us to calculate an accurate burn rate {Go Deep} for the situation around Elon Musk. Through this accurate financial prism, everything that Elon Musk has done lines up in sequence {Go Deep}.

Cliff Notes Version: Musk has a deficit burn rate of around $250 to $300 million per month. Musk runs out of working capital in Sept/Oct, depending on how quickly Yaccarino was/is able to enhance revenue.

Regardless of revenue, and because she just can’t generate it fast enough, approximately, seven weeks from now Musk has to secure another roughly $5 billion, to give himself enough breathing room to continue operations.

Musk has lost the $30 billion he put in. The current estimates are that Twitter is now worth between $12 to $15 billion. There is debt of $12.5 billion from the initial purchase structure still in place. The asset is worth its debt, not much more.

With a current debt service of $100+ million per month, adding another $50 million/month ($5 billion loan) is tenuous at best. And that’s IF he can secure that investment loan. Musk has admitted he is personally limited in leverage using Tesla. He is approaching an inflexion point. 1 million subscribers paying $8/month is pittance ($8 million).

Recently X-Corp: (1) Linda Yaccarino introduced the novel concept of speech that was “lawful but awful” and must be suppressed. (2) Their desire to remove the block function. (3) Restrictions on visibility, “freedom of speech, not freedom of reach.” (4) and hired back a platform censorship team. All of these measures are designed to make “safe spaces” for advertisers to return. In essence, they are all revenue decisions.

People inside tech, and even people inside the X-Corp organization, who initially did not think my analysis was accurate, are now starting to admit it is the most likely scenario.

This arc of directional travel is not going to change, especially with Musk needing to go back into the capital markets for more working cash. Everything we are seeing is a result of this financial dynamic and the desperation is starting to show.

Yesterday Musk admitted they may indeed fail. However, he is portraying himself as a victim in this – which is profoundly disingenuous.

Musk has known this critical financial flaw from the outset. All the intellectually honest people who understand the situation, debts, obligations and the dynamics of social media revenue when contrast against the ideology of the gatekeepers, also know this. None of this is a surprise.

Musk is getting increasingly anxious about it, and when people start to get desperate – they start to say stupid things.

Now, here’s my warning…

I am pretty certain about the prior timeline. There’s about 7 weeks left (+/-) before the critical crisis point hits, depending on events that may slightly delay or speed up the timing. Put his motives, intents and disposition off the table for a moment. Accept things in their most common construct. This situation makes Musk vulnerable.

There is only one deal, one specific version of agreement, that I can think of – that would generate the capital he needs.An agreement to leverage his platform along with META, Insta, Alpha/Goog, etc to influence the 2024 election. Agreeing to join that effort, more vociferously than previous, will get him the capital he needs…

…. so, watch out.….

https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2023/08/20/7-weeks-and-the-faustian-deal-hits-the-table/

>>19398166

2/2

The only apolitical platform currently operating in the U.S. social media sphere is Tik Tok. The inability of the US govt to control the platform, is a large part of the reason why U.S. govt interests on both sides want it removed and black-listed. Pro MAGA voices have a big footprint on Tik Tok.

Repeating what I said in July:

Keep in mind, long before people realized the Dept of Homeland Security (FBI, DHS, CISA etc.) had a portal into Twitter, I was explaining how transparently obvious it was. {Go Deep – Jack’s Magic Coffee Shop} In part, the transparency of the problem is driven by CTH understanding of the costs associated with Twitter as a very unique platform in the sphere of social media. {Go Deep – Understand the Costs}

With the latest revelations we shared about the financial position of Twitter {Go Deep on FINANCIALS}, all of the moves now underway make sense. Musk was on track to hit a date in/around October of this year where Twitter would be insolvent. If you had read those previous “Go Deep” links, you will easily see the problem.

Approximately seven weeks.

Keep your eyes open.

https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2023/08/20/7-weeks-and-the-faustian-deal-hits-the-table/

>>19398168

Many have been predicting there will not be a 2024 election on time. I think we all can see what time it is!

It’s Go Time

TS Hilary Moving Fast into California – Newsom Declares Proactive State of Emergency

August 20, 2023 | Sundance |

Two good facets for Southern California as Hilary arrives. First, she’s losing power and has dropped into strong tropical storm strength. Second, she’s moving north very fast at 25 mph, which is contributing to the weakening. The storm event should be complete for the state in less than 24 hours. That said, the rain and flooding look to be the biggest issue for the region. [NHS Information]

Six to ten inches of heavy rain with sustained winds of 40 mph+, with higher gusts, can create major issues for an area of hard soil that doesn’t generally get large amounts of rain in a short period of time. Washed out roads, fallen trees, flash flooding and other significant risks associated with this scale of rain are the major concern. As with most storms of this type, if you are in higher elevation areas the wind will be much stronger.

Hurricane Center – {…] At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Hilary was located near latitude 29.7 North, longitude 115.9 West. Hilary is moving quickly toward the north-northwest near 25 mph (41 km/h). Hilary is expected to accelerate even more as it moves north-northwestward to northward during the next day or so. On the forecast track, the center of Hilary will move near or over the northern portion of the Baja California Peninsula during the next few hours, and then move across southern California this afternoon. (more)

All preparations should be completed and everyone in the zone of largest impact should remain indoors for the next 24 hours. Power failures are highly likely as the storm will knock out electricity throughout the region. [Good luck to those with EV’s] In the hours immediately following the storm, do not travel. Stay close to home as the emergency service and first responders will activate to the areas of greatest issue.

We have quite a few Treepers in this area. Check in when you can and if you need anything send us an email or drop a comment, I will be checking throughout. The biggest issue I would foresee is the potential for weakened infrastructure, roads, bridges and systems that perhaps have not encountered high pressure or stress for many years.

Always take these things seriously, but do not alarm yourself with dark imaginings. Be prudent, be wise and be safe. Focus on the immediate area around your home, pull your family in close, watch out for each other and mitigate risks from a 100-foot perspective. [If “it” (a risk or threat) is within 100′, that’s your focus.]

Fast moving, which is a good thing.

Lots of rain coming into an area that doesn’t usually get much rain…. that’s not so good.

(VIA CNN) […] Electricity utility Southern California Edison – which serves more than 15 million people in the region – said Thursday Hilary is on track to impact much of its service area. The company said it is preparing to respond to outages but urged residents to gather supplies including flashlights, external battery chargers and ice chests.

Additionally, roadways may be closed “proactively” out of an abundance of caution to ensure safety, according to Tony Tavares, director of the Department of Transportation.

[…] Brian Ferguson, deputy director of the Office of Emergency Services, told CNN Saturday the office is “all hands on deck” for Hurricane Hilary preparation. He said the office is particularly monitoring desert regions as they prepare for heavy rainfall and potential flooding.

“We’re keeping a very close eye on our desert regions, east of San Diego and Los Angeles. Some parts of these areas may receive double their yearly amount of water in just a single day,” he said. “Certainly, we are going to be watching very carefully for flash floods, mudslides and debris flows in that area, looking at the burn scars from fires that have happened in recent years.”

The San Bernardino County Sheriff’s department issued an evacuation warning for the communities of Oak Glen, Forest Falls, Mountain Home Village, Angelus Oaks, and Northeast Yucaipa. Visitors to Catalina Island, as well as residents with medical, access and functional needs, were “strongly encouraged” to leave the island ahead of the storm in a news release from the City of Avalon. (more)

https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2023/08/20/ts-hilary-moving-fast-into-california-newsom-declares-proactive-state-of-emergency/

21 Aug, 2023

State of emergency declared over anthrax outbreak

Cases of the dangerous bacterial disease have prompted a lockdown in a district of Russia’s Voronezh Region

A state of emergency has been declared in a district of Russia’s Voronezh Region over an outbreak of the deadly bacterial disease anthrax, local authorities have said.

Regional governor Aleksandr Gusev introduced the measures in the Paninsky municipal area on Sunday. They will remain in place until at least November 16, according to a statement released on Monday.

During this period, visits by unauthorized persons to the district will be limited. A ban has been imposed on the movement, import, and slaughter of animals unvaccinated against anthrax. The shipment of meat products and feed from the area has also been prohibited, as well as the hunting of wild animals, the statement read.

The administration added that local and regional agencies had contained the outbreak. Every home in the affected settlement has been inspected, with two mobile sanitary and veterinary stations arriving in the area, it said. The authorities did not provide information on how many cases had been discovered or the details of any infections.

Voronezh Region is located in southwest Russia and shares a border with Ukraine. Its main city, Voronezh, lies 465km from Moscow.

Russia’s previous anthrax outbreak was reported in the Republic of Chuvashia in March. The spread of the infection was swiftly contained by the local authorities.

Anthrax is a serious infectious disease caused by the Bacillus anthracis bacteria, which is sometimes encountered in rural areas and most commonly affects livestock. Humans can catch it from animals, typically from infected carcasses, as well as from wool, hair, and hides.

The disease has several forms and can occur in the skin, lungs, and intestines. Respiratory anthrax is considered the most dangerous and has a mortality rate of between 50% and 80%, even with treatment, according to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. However, the skin form of the disease is the most common, and is lethal in less than 24% of cases without treatment.

Anthrax caused hundreds of thousands of deaths around the globe before the scientific advances of the 20th century. The number of cases has been greatly reduced thanks to the use of antibiotics to treat infected people and to the vaccination of animals.

https://www.rt.com/russia/581578-anthrax-outbreak-voronezh-emergency/

20 Aug, 2023

AI-generated art can’t be copyrighted – US judge

AI entrepreneur Stephen Thaler sued the US Copyright Office after it denied an application from his Creativity Machine

Artwork created by artificial intelligence is not eligible for copyright protection, a US federal judge confirmed on Friday, rejecting a lawsuit by AI entrepreneur Stephen Thaler against the US Copyright Office.

"Human authorship is a bedrock requirement" for protection under the law, "at the core of copyright ability, even as that human creativity is channeled through new tools or into new media,"US District Judge Beryl Howellwrote in her ruling rejecting Thaler’s judicial review petition. (She finally follows the law! Not so much on Trump.)

While copyright law was "designed to adapt with the times," it had "never stretched so far" to "protect works generated by new forms of technology operating absent any guiding human hand," she continued.

Thaler, who runs the neural network company Imagination Engines, sued in response to the Copyright Office’s rejection of his 2018 application to protect artwork "created" by his AI system, the Creativity Machine. "A Recent Entrance to Paradise" was described in the submission as "autonomously created by a computer algorithm running on a machine."

While he had listed himself as the owner of the copyright on the application as if it had been produced as a work for hire, the office denied his application, arguing "the nexus between the human mind and creative expression" was critical to the idea of copyright protection.

Thaler had pushed back, arguing the AI should be eligible as an author "where it otherwise meets authorship criteria," with the system’s owner being the true owner of the copyright. The office’s refusal was "arbitrary, capricious, an abuse of discretion and not in accordance with the law," constituting a violation of the Administrative Procedure Act, he claimed.

The Copyright Office has previously stated AI-generated works are not copyrightable, but in March clarified this policy to note that content created with the assistance of AI could be protected if a human had "selected or arranged" it in a "sufficiently creative way that the resulting work constitutes an original work of authorship."

AI’s role in artwork is at the center of a months-long Hollywood writers’ strike. Over 160,000 film, radio and television workers have walked off their jobs, forcing major productions to pause as union leaders negotiate with producers to guarantee AI cannot be used to undercut their pay or replace them entirely.

In January, a group of artists sued the makers of AI art generators Midjourney, Stable Diffusion, and DreamUp, describing art-generating AI as "a parasite that, if allowed to proliferate, will cause irreparable harm to artists." Their class-action suit alleged that the tools violated millions of artists’ rights by slurping up their content for "training" purposes without consent or compensation, then turning a fat profit on the results.

https://www.rt.com/news/581563-ai-copyright-ruling-creativity-machine/

Moment Iranian drones and speedboats swarm two US warships with 4,000 troops on board during tense clash in the Persian Gulf

By Perkin Amalaraj 21 Aug 2023

Iran's navy harrassed the US ships as they carried 4,000 troops between them

Dozens of Iranian drones and speedboats swarming two US Navy ships near the Persian Gulf after Washington sent them in to deal with Iran's renewed threat against one of the world's most important waterways, dramatic new footage has revealed.

Iran's navy sent the small vessels to confront the USS Bataan and the USS Carter Hall in the fraught Strait of Hormuz, which sits between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, according to a video published on Saturday.

The speedboats were manned with armed soldiers from Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and came within inches of the ships, while drones also taunted the ships and managed to snap pictures right above them.

Chopped up footage taken from several of the drones and speedboats showed Iranian soldiers speaking in a mix of English and Farsi, while a US soldier can be heard through garbled radio responding to the swarm of vessels, though it is unclear exactly what was said.

Iranian media outlets claimed that the confrontation forced helicopters to land back on the Americans ships.

The ships, a helicopter carrier and a support vessel that were carrying more than 4,000 American troops between them, were sent to the Gulf in response to Iran's continued threats of seizing commercial ships in the region.

Moment Iranian Navy swarms US warship in Strait of Hormuz

The Strait of Hormuz is hugely important to the world economy, as one-fifth of the world's oil passes through its waters, but Washington has still not commented on the tense situation.

The strait lies in the territorial waters of both Iran and Oman. At its narrowest point, it is just 21 miles wide, and the width of the shipping lane in either direction is only two miles.

The stand-off comes just weeks after the US warned vessels to avoid the Persian Gulf following a threat that Iran made that it would seize oil tankers in the region.

The threat followed a spate of attempted and successful seizures in the region, with the US claiming that Iran has gone after nearly 20 internationally flagged ships in the region over the past two years.

These seizures began after the US under former president Donald Trump completely withdrew the States from the 2015 Iran Nuclear Deal, and reimposed sanctions on Tehran in 2019.

The latest seizure came in early July, when the IRGC 'forcibly seized' a commercial ship in international waters, roughly 59 nautical miles from the Saudi Arabian city Dammam, according to the US.

A navy spokesperson said the vessel was possibly involved in smuggling, and added that it decided not to follow through with a response.

Days before this, the US revealed it was forced to intervene after the IRGC 'opened fire' on a commercial tanker near the coast of Oman.

US Naval Forces Central Command said that it had sent the USS McFaul to deal with a distress call from a Bahamian-flagged oil tanker.

'Prior to McFaul’s arrival on scene, Iranian personnel fired multiple, long bursts from both small arms and crew-served weapons.

'Several rounds hit the ship’s hull near crew living spaces. The Iranian navy vessel departed when McFaul arrived.'

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12428449/Moment-Iranian-drones-speedboats-swarm-warship-docking-ship-4-000-troops-board-tense-clash-Persian-Gulf.html

Owner of Lahaina 'miracle house' that was only one spared by devastating Maui wildfire shares secrets of how the $4M property survived

None of the renovations the Millikins made to their house were intended to fireproof the 100-year-old structure - but they ultimately saved it from ruin

Amid the rubble that is now Lahaina stands one seaside home, left untouched by the devastating fires that desecrated the town on Maui.

The home's owners, Dora Atwater Millikin and her husband Dudley Long Millikin III, recently made relatively minor adjustments to the $4million house that may have been the keys to its preservation.

Aerial photos show the red-roofed home with a bright white façade still in seemingly pristine condition, against the grey-toned, ashen landscape by which it is surrounded. The fire's death toll is currently tallied at 114, with the number expected to continue rising.

'It's a 100 percent wood house so it's not like we fireproofed it or anything,' Dora told the LA Times.

But the couple did recently replace the asphalt roof with a heavy-gauge metal one, and cut down on foliage surrounding the home in order to reduce the risk of termites spreading to the house.

Atwater Millikin, 63, said none of the changes that were made were done with the idea of fireproofing in mind - but it was these changes that ultimately saved it from ruin.

'When all this was happening, there were pieces of wood - six, 12 inches long - that were on fire and just almost floating through the air with the wind and everything,' she said.

'They would hit people's roofs, and if it was an asphalt roof, it would catch on fire. And otherwise, they would fall off the road and then ignite the foliage around the house.'

Roofs are the primary factor contributing to a home's flammability, because they are the largest surface area upon which embers can land.

The couple were visiting family in Massachusetts when the fire began a week-and-a-half ago.

Atwater Millikin and her husband have lived on Maui for close to 10 years, and bought the house about three years ago. She is an artist whose paintings focus on New England coastal scenery, and he is a recently retired portfolio manager.

A day after the fire, the county called the Millikins to inform them their house had survived. Since then many have dubbed their home a 'miracle house'.

News of the latest death toll was announced Saturday. Around 1,000 people remain missing - and on Friday, DailyMail.com spoke to officials who say they expect the final number of people killed to be around 500.

Governor Josh Green has said he doesn't want to make guesses about the final death toll, but he believes the count will continue to climb by some ten people a day for the next few weeks….

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12426177/Owner-Lahaina-miracle-house-one-spared-devastating-Maui-wildfire-shares-secrets-property-survived.html

Tropical Storm Hilary soaks from coast to desert as it batters Nevada with 25 million people under flood warnings: Palm Springs is submerged and cut off from 911 as desperate Californians climb trees to escape mudslides

By Olivia Jones and Alice Wright and Sophie Mann 21 Aug 2023

'Today, I am declaring a state of emergency due to the imminent impact of Hurricane Hilary across the state,' Governor Lombardo said in a statement.

'My administration will continue to work diligently with state, federal, tribal, and local partners in preparation and response to this severe weather event.'

'Hurricane Hilary represents a serious threat to our communities, and once again, I implore all Nevadans to prepare for flooding, remain vigilant, and to follow all guidance from state and local emergency officials.'

Lombardo additionally deployed 100 national guardsmen to southern Nevada last Friday, in preparation for the storm.

Many airlines waived change fees for flights scheduled through Monday to or from Los Cabos and a handful of Southern California, Nevada, and Arizona airports.

The storm has, at this point, been downgraded to a post-tropical storm, though experts continue to warn that Hilary is carrying heavy rains and high winds.

Panicking Californians were trapped in cars and climbed trees in bid to escape dangerous floodwaters and mudslides as Tropical Storm Hilary battered the state bringing down bridges and powerlines and leaving vehicles stranded on flooded roads.

The first tropical storm to hit Southern California in 84 years brought havoc across the state, leaving 25million people under flood warnings with significant fears of devastating destruction.

Mountain and desert areas predicted to get 5 to 10 inches of rain today, as much as the deserts typically see in a year, while yesterday Ventura county saw two inches of rain fall within two hours.

Palm Springs received more than half a year’s worth of rain in just a few hours.

California Governor Gavin Newsom - who has been touring the state as the storm wreaks havoc - said Palm Springs was dry when he left on Sunday, but just an hour later it had experienced 'the most significant rainfall over a 60-minute period any time in the history of Palm Springs.'

Residents of the desert town were also warned that 911 lines are down due to flood damage. They are advised to call (760) 327-1441 for any police or fire related matter or text 911.

'There's no way in or out of Palm Springs and that's the case for the majority of the Coachella valley. We're all stuck. Our major freeway, I-10, is also closed in both directions. This is a very extreme situation at the moment,' said Palm Springs Mayor Grace Garner early Monday.

There are, so far, no reported fatalities out of Palm Springs.

Hilary is now moving northwards and will batter Nevada later today. It would be the first time the state is hit with a tropical storm and flood warnings have been put in place.

Gusts of 35 mph and continual downpours brought down power lines and flooded roads trapping dozens of motorists in their vehicles.

Further destruction is expected across parts of Oregon and Idaho tomorrow morning, where residents have been warned of catastrophic flooding.

Yesterday afternoon Ventura County was also struck by a 5.1 magnitude earthquake which caused four aftershocks in the area - with terrifying footage showing drinkers left shaken in an Ojai bar. The aftershocks continued well into yesterday evening, and at least five more earthquakes hit the area overnight.

As Hilary continues to wreak havoc across the state:

Biden said he was monitoring the storm and urged people to take it seriously;

Counties in Southern California declared emergencies for the tropical storm;

A hospital in the Coachella Valley flooded after a nearby pond burst its banks;

One person was killed and four rescued in Baja California following the storm. …

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-12428701/Tropical-Storm-Hilary-

soaks-coast-desert-barrels-Nevada-25-million-people-flood-warnings-Palm-Springs-submerged-cut-911-desperate-Californians-climb-trees-escape-mudslides.html